Sick of Cancel Culture? One Man Has a Surprising Solution.

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To pinpoint the birth of the cancel culture era one has to go back to shortly before Halloween 2015.

A group of Yale deans had sent an email urging students to avoid insensitive costume choices. Three days later, Erika Christakis, the co-director (then called “co-master”), of Silliman, one of Yale’s 12 residential colleges, sent her own email to students. Christakis acknowledged “genuine concerns about cultural and personal representation,” but, drawing upon her own experience and research as an expert in early childhood education, suggested the students themselves were best positioned to police their own conduct. She also mused about the consequences of delegating control over their behavior to bureaucrats.

A dizzying backlash ensued. Students circulated a petition demanding Christakis and her co-master and husband, Nicholas, an eminent sociologist and physician, resign their Silliman posts. The courtyard was quickly covered with chalked protest messages.

The following Sunday, Nicholas Christakis decided to walk the courtyard and read the notes. “I could have stayed indoors,” he told me recently, “but I felt like Marie Antoinette.” Word got out, and Christakis was soon surrounded by a crowd of some 150 students and administrators. Things escalated when he tried to make a point about competing rights to express oneself. A YouTube video of the ensuing encounter has been viewed 1.8 million times.

“Be quiet!” a young woman can be heard screaming at Christakis. “It is your job to create a place of comfort and home for the students who live in Silliman!” she shouts. “By sending out that email, that goes against your position as master! Do you understand that?”

“No,” Christakis replies, “I don’t agree with that.”

“Then why the fuck did you accept that position?”

With preternatural calm, Christakis says, “I have a different view.”

But the student dismisses Christakis’ suggestion that residential colleges should foster an intellectual environment for challenging discourse.

“You should not sleep at night!” she cries. “You are disgusting!”

At the end of the academic year, the Christakises resigned their positions as co-masters of Silliman. Erika never taught at Yale again.

The videographer of the Halloween conflict and witness to this quietly critical moment in society just so happened to be Greg Lukianoff, one of the nation’s preeminent First Amendment lawyers and most vivid chroniclers of American fragility.

The presence of Lukianoff, who was on Yale’s campus that day to give a speech, is an apt metaphor for his career. As president of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, Lukianoff has been either in front of the camera or behind the scenes of almost every major free speech controversy over the past 25 years. A near sui generis figure in American legal history, he’s the rarest of creatures in modern public life: someone dedicated to elevating principle over tribalism, a progressive who’s willing to ally himself with anyone — even the Koch brothers — who supports his larger cause.

That cause is a near absolute commitment to the First Amendment and civil liberties. It’s premised upon a faith in the human capacity to tolerate complexity, hearkening to F. Scott Fitzgerald’s observation that “the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” That Americans can recognize the importance of the due process rights of a likely criminal or the speech rights of someone with extreme or loathsome views.

Most deeply, it’s rooted in the belief that governmental and institutional authority is never more dangerous than when it infringes upon freedom of thought and expression — even when the motivation is noble.

“The Constitution is always what tends to save us,” Lukianoff told me. “‘We have to destroy freedom to save freedom’ is one of the thin-sound philosophies that can lead to tyranny.”

Lukianoff’s philosophy — civil libertarianism — is arguably the very core of the American project. And yet it now faces intense threats from the left and the right, which Lukianoff chronicles in a new book on cancel culture. The book also offers some prescriptions, a new approach to politics and culture that could help bridge our poisonous divide, if given the chance.

Lukianoff doesn’t have all the answers, but as he recounted his own struggles with severe depression, it’s clear that his approach is a healing one. Whether Americans are willing to listen — and whether civil libertarianism can survive — is far less certain.

Lukianoff grew up a latchkey kid in Danbury, Conn., a working-class city that was once the center of the American hat industry. When he was 7, his mother, Joanna, an ethnically Irish Brit who’d come to the U.S. as a teenager, divorced his father, Basil, a Yugoslavian. Following the split, Basil moved to Geneva leaving Joanna to raise Greg and his three older siblings. The Lukianoffs struggled financially, qualifying for public assistance until Joanna found work as a geriatric nurse. To help support his family, Lukianoff worked at Sbarro’s, Burlington Coat Factory, and during summers, as a cook on Block Island.

He began his academic career at St. Joseph, a small Catholic school, where the nuns embraced him even though he was an unenthusiastic student and identified as an agnostic. Lukianoff describes the sisters’ open mindedness as his first lesson in pluralism. At Immaculate High School, he played defensive tackle in football and excelled at quiz bowl, but still felt ambivalent about structured education.

“We didn’t attend school very often,” says Lukianoff’s childhood best friend, Anthony Rodriguez, today a professor of education at Providence College. “We just wanted to have space for people like us — free thinkers — kids who maybe were born on the other side of the tracks.”

During his senior year, Lukianoff submitted only one college application — to American University — where his sister had worked as an organizer of the centennial celebration. He enrolled, majored in international relations and felt entirely alienated. “American was the worst school to go to if you had a class chip on your shoulder,” Lukianoff told me. “It was the kind of place a lot of rich kids went if they couldn’t get in somewhere else.” He recalled with anger the loans his mother was forced to take to keep him in school. “I have no warm fuzzies about American.”

It’s plausible to imagine writing having been the center of Lukianoff’s life. He edited a literary magazine in high school and has two unpublished science fiction novels on his computer. At American, he worked for the student newspaper, covering gun violence in D.C. But he took the biggest interest in the sensitivity of people who demanded retractions of articles and in a campus visit from an ACLU lawyer who challenged a D.C. sexual assault bill as unconstitutionally vague.

“That made a big impression on me,” he said.

Without great conviction, Lukianoff took the LSAT, did better than he expected, and landed at Stanford. There, he again drifted until he met Kathleen Sullivan, a constitutional law scholar who changed the course of his life.

As Lukianoff recalls, Sullivan gave him a dose of tough love during their first meeting following a constitutional law class. When he expressed his ambivalence about law school, Sullivan said he should consider dropping out. (Sullivan only vaguely recalls the incident and says her comments were surely intended to light a fire under Lukianoff, whom she recalls as “enormously impressive and immensely intellectually curious.”)

After taking a second course with Sullivan on the First Amendment, Lukianoff told her this was the cause to which he wanted to dedicate his life. Sullivan introduced him to Harvey Silverglate, a left-leaning Boston-based lawyer, who, together with Charles Kors, a conservative history professor at the University of Pennsylvania, had recently started an organization then called the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, dedicated to protecting speech at colleges and universities.

In 2001, Lukianoff signed on as legal director. At the time, FIRE, as it’s universally known, had a budget of just over $500,000 and five employees. When he took over as president five years later, FIRE had a staff of only 12. Today, the organization employs 109 people, including 42 lawyers, and has an annual budget of nearly $37 million. Its work includes student and faculty outreach, public education, litigation on individual cases, legislative policy advocacy and reform of campus speech codes. FIRE claims more than 500 victories for students and faculty members and a nearly equal number of campus policy changes. Lukianoff’s career would have been notable for these accomplishments alone.

But his project really got going only after he got serious about killing himself.

Lukianoff, 48, with a cherubic smile and a beard that Ron Swanson would envy, describes his descent into depression following his appointment as president of FIRE in 2006 with disarming detachment.

“The first year was incredibly exhausting,” he told me. Lukianoff had a bad breakup and contracted Lyme disease during a trip to Martha’s Vineyard. At the same time, he felt a professional responsibility to project the image that both he and FIRE were doing great, as well as a daunting obligation to demonstrate FIRE’s neutrality on all cases of free speech. When FIRE received a letter from a Christian conservative saying the organization wouldn’t care about people like him, Lukianoff thought, “I have to prove that I will care about people like him.” Soon, he was caring about everyone but himself.

By winter 2007, Lukianoff couldn’t stop thinking about suicide. “One day, I went to the hardware store. The plan was to take all of my medications and grind them up and to get wire and a thick bag to put over my head so if I woke up I would suffocate.” But, Lukianoff said, “something finally went off in my head.” He called 911, and agreed to be held for three days at the University of Pennsylvania hospital.

After the weekend, Lukianoff’s sister, a physician, collected him. That Tuesday, he returned to work without mentioning a word to his colleagues. Lukianoff felt FIRE couldn’t survive a perception of weakness in its leader.

Will Creeley, FIRE’s legal director, said he had no idea Lukianoff was suffering. No one did.

“Greg has shielded us,” Creeley told me. “I think it’s taken a toll on him. To do this work properly and consistently requires a patience and a willingness to suffer the slings and arrow. That really can be tough.” By Christmas, Lukianoff was still thinking about killing himself enough that he cried when his family mentioned the new year.

Lukianoff experimented with a variety of treatments. He tried EMDR (eye movement desensitization and reprocessing therapy), which helped him deal with some early childhood issues that he prefers to keep private but also retraumatized him. Antidepressants made his condition worse. Finally, Lukianoff began cognitive behavioral therapy with Jonathan Kaplan, a psychologist who grounded his practice in Buddhism. Gradually, Lukianoff began to feel better.

“I began to see my thoughts like the weather,” he says. This self-mastery again changed Lukianoff’s life.

During the 2013-14 school year, as he regained control personally, Lukianoff noticed a sea change on college campuses. Traditionally, students had opposed censorship by college administrators. Now, they were increasingly calling on them to stifle speech. And they were invoking unfamiliar language.

“That year,” Lukianoff said, “was the first time I ever heard of microaggressions.” He contrasted the new rhetoric of safe spaces and trigger warnings, which seemed to be encouraging emotional fragility, with his own experiences with cognitive behavioral therapy, which fostered resilience.

Lukianoff pitched the connection between civil libertarianism and cognitive behavioral therapy to his colleagues at FIRE. The response was “overwhelming silence,” he said. But NYU psychologist Jonathan Haidt bought in. Together, they published an article in the Atlantic under a title suggested by their editor, Don Peck. In “The Coddling of the American Mind,” Lukianoff and Haidt traced students’ increased sensitivity to the paranoid parenting that became prevalent in the 1990s, and argued that the culture of safetyism permeating campuses exponentially increased the risk that a student would see words as violence. Colleges, they argued, were imbuing students with the precise opposite of the sort of resilience that cognitive behavioral therapy tried to cultivate.

The article caused a stir, and they expanded it into a book framed around three “Great Untruths” at the root of the spreading epidemic of fragility:

— The Untruth of Fragility: What doesn’t kill you makes you weaker.

— The Untruth of Emotional Reasoning: Always trust your feelings

— The Untruth of Us versus Them: Life is a battle between good and evil people.

 

The Coddling of the American Mind reached No. 8 on the New York Times bestseller list and sold over 600,000 copies.

Lukianoff’s new book, The Canceling of the American Mind, co-authored with Rikki Schlott, a New York Post columnist and right-leaning podcaster, is a companion piece of sorts to The Coddling. Superficially about cancel culture, it’s more deeply about the kinds of interaction and engagement that foment mutual distrust, and which are familiar to anyone who recently has discussed a politically sensitive issue on social media or in the academy.

Lukianoff and Schlott call these “rhetorical fortresses,” which they categorize with admirable precision. One set of fortresses are rhetorical deflections — such as whataboutism, straw-manning and minimization — which people use to avoid dealing with the substance of an argument. The other are effectively forms of ad hominem attacks — efforts to dismiss arguments on the basis of the speaker’s identity or character.

The Canceling also offers a sort of Buddhist guide to public discourse — to cultivating what the Vietnamese monk Thich Nhat Hanh referred to as Right Thinking and Right Speech, practices rooted in mindfulness. Read together with The Coddling, Lukianoff lays out a worldview of self-aware individuals and institutions that promote mutual respect.

The books are a call for humility and extending grace, at least temporarily, for the sake of clarification; for reason and due process over emotion and rushes to judgment; and an acknowledgment of the difficulty of resolving questions of fairness by situated actors.

It’s almost the precise opposite of modern academic and political discourse.

Lukianoff and Schlott bolster their case with harrowing tales of cancellations, including the Christakises’, and other vivid illustrations of the precarious position of entering almost any topic — fraught or not — in the public sphere or classroom.

I can vouch for this from the front lines. Last year, I watched a liberal colleague pilloried for questioning the efficacy of mandatory DEI statements and rubrics; attended a de facto compulsory DEI training where a colleague — a national expert on policing — offered competing data regarding police shootings and was told that our job — a group of social scientists at a college of criminal justice — was to listen to the trainers’ data, not challenge it; and feared for my own cancellation when I defended the freedom of speech of a conservative student at a forum on freedom of speech.

Faculty on both the left and right are terrified. More than half of the respondents to a study of faculty conducted by the Higher Education Research Institute said faculty aren’t prepared to deal with classroom conflict over diversity issues. When FIRE surveyed 1,491 college faculty, 91 percent said they were at least “somewhat likely” to self-censor. Seventy-two percent of self-identified conservative faculty members said they’re afraid of losing their job or reputation over a misunderstanding of something they said or did, or because someone posted something from their past online. Forty percent of liberal faculty said the same thing.

From 2014 to 2022, FIRE recorded 946 attempts to punish professors for speech.

By any imaginable metric, civil libertarianism is under ominous threat.

Whether the threats to free speech are more severe from the right or the left is hotly debated, a hardly surprising reality given the polarization of modern America.

The only points of wide agreement among political observers and combatants alike are that the nature of the threat posed by each side is quite different — Lukianoff and Schlott distinguish the rhetorical fortresses upon which each side relies — and that both the left and right are guilty of significant inconsistencies.

The right’s “efficient rhetorical fortress,” as Lukianoff and Schlott call it, is like tribalism on steroids. Under its principles, one doesn’t have to listen to liberals, experts (including journalists) and, for MAGA supporters, anyone who isn’t pro-Trump. The efficient fortress has been used to galvanize support for book banning and prohibitions against teaching conceptual talismans of the culture wars, such as critical race theory.

These are commonly legislative initiatives, which makes them a more severe threat to civil liberties in the view of Steven Brint, distinguished professor of Sociology and Public Policy at University of California, Riverside.

“The coercive power of the state, even when it doesn’t seem like it’s intruding that much, nevertheless has a force — the force of law backed up by legal sanctions — that is quite unlike what we see mostly in terms of the threats from the left,” says Brint. “I worry a lot when the state gets involved in these issues.”

Brint also differentiates the coordination of right-leaning cancelation efforts from the haphazardness of cancelations from the left. A recent study conducted by Brint, who also serves on FIRE’s board, found that 78 of the 99 so-called divisive concepts bills that have been introduced since 2021 are directly derived from model legislation drafted by the conservative Heritage Foundation. Earlier this year, the Manhattan and Goldwater Institutes — a pair of conservative think tanks — drafted model bills to ban DEI officers, diversity trainings and diversity statements.

An irony of the threats from the right is that they’re informed by the same desire to spare their children from psychic harm which they’re quick to ridicule from the left. Florida’s Stop WOKE Act, championed by GOP presidential hopeful Gov. Ron DeSantis, says no student should be made to feel “guilt, anguish, or discomfort” over historical events for which they’re not directly responsible. According to Brint, this was a near-constant refrain among Republican legislators in Florida. “One wonders how conservatives became so tender in their sensibilities,” he says.

An even greater irony is that civil libertarianism has come to be perceived as a right-wing cause. This is in part because, divisive concept bills notwithstanding, conservative students take what Johns Hopkins University sociologist Amy Binder calls an “absolutist” position on speech. “Conservative students are the biggest free speech proponents because they’re the persecuted minority,” says Binder, who has written extensively about campus activism.

Over the past few months, when I’ve told people that I’m working on this piece, the most common question I’m asked is whether FIRE is a conservative organization. Indeed, the group has received significant contributions from several right-leaning foundations, including the Charles Koch Institute. Nevertheless, the charge frustrates Lukianoff.

“A great disappointment of my career is that I couldn’t get us more support from left-leaning foundations,” Lukianoff told me, adding that FIRE now received support from the center-left Knight Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies. He also readily acknowledges the unique threat Donald Trump poses to democracy. Indeed, nearly everyone I interviewed regarded the kind of violent attempted coup that sought to overturn the 2020 election as a greater threat to civil libertarianism than political correctness run amok.

I asked Lukianoff whether he perceived an inconsistency between accepting contributions from organizations which directly or indirectly fund candidates who support anti-free speech measures like divisive concepts legislation. “No,” he said. “Some of the worst threats from the government we’ve seen in our existence have come from the Obama — who I voted for — Department of Education,” Lukianoff explained. (Lukianoff took particular exception to a joint letter from the Department of Education and Department of Justice that lowered the evidentiary standard in sexual harassment cases and said that speech could serve as the basis for a complaint.) “The idea that people who support Democrats’ hands are totally clean on speech, that’s crazy,” he said.

While the ongoing threat to civil liberties may be greater from the right, the losses in support for civil libertarianism have been greater on the left.

It’s important to distinguish First Amendment civil libertarian types from small government, tea party-type libertarians. (Lukianoff, a lifelong Democrat, is an example of a civil libertarian who backs redistributive economic policy.) While the latter have been widely studied, scant research exists on the former.

One of the few sources of data is the General Social Survey, run by the University of Chicago, and known as the GSS. Since 1976, the GSS has asked whether a racist should be allowed to make a speech. During Trump’s presidency, between 2016 and 2021, support for this proposition dropped from 59 to 47 percent, the lowest level recorded in the survey’s history. Support among Democrats fell from 55 to 35 percent. The decline was even more pronounced among those with college degrees.

Over the same time period, the percentage of respondents who said a racist book should be removed from a public library increased by 7 points — from 35 to 42 percent. Again, the shift in support was attributable principally to Democrats, 49 percent of whom agreed with banning the racist book — compared with 28 percent of Republicans. The data should give pause to anyone who believes book banning is exclusively the province of the right.

What Lukianoff and Schott call the left’s “perfect rhetorical fortress” is characterized by dismissing speakers on the basis of identity markers such as race, gender and sexuality.

Binder frames it somewhat differently, as “speech realism” — as in realism about historical inequities and current power disparities. Binder related a typical interview with a progressive student. “Free speech, free speech, free speech — that’s all they ever talk about,” the interviewee told Binder, referring to their conservative peers. “But it’s hurtful and some things shouldn’t be said on campus.”

Sarah Longwell, a Republican strategist, draws a connection between these sorts of comments and the Trump presidency. In 2021, FIRE hired Longwell, who founded Republican Voters Against Trump, to conduct focus groups on how receptive Americans might be to a pro-free speech campaign.

Longwell divided the respondents into three categories: “reachables” — people, mostly over 45, who were receptive to a pro-free speech message; “teachables” — who had misconceptions about basic First Amendment law; and “in-too-deepables” — largely college-educated voters between the ages of 30 and 45 who were hostile to FIRE’s message.

“The idea of hate speech and speech as violence was very much a part of their thinking,” Longwell told me. “Trump was such a big reference point in terms of ‘Look at what Trump did. He incited violence.’”

These profound changes on the left leave civil libertarianism unmoored.

The North Star of many civil libertarians — including Lukianoff — was the ACLU’s 1976 decision to represent a neo-Nazi group that wanted to march through Skokie, Ill., a Chicago suburb where many Holocaust survivors made their home. Elevating the poignancy and indelibility of the defense was the fact that the lead lawyer, David Goldberger, was Jewish. Longwell said the “reachables,” who tended to be older, drew a direct connection to Skokie. “They had a real reverence for free speech,” Longwell said. “The nobility of ‘I don’t have to like what you’re saying, but this is how civil liberties are achieved.” By contrast, Longwell added, “young people did not think Nazis should be able to march.”

Today, it’s less clear whether the ACLU would defend the Skokie marchers. In 2017, the organization was roiled by conflict after its Virginia chapter defended the right of white nationalists to rally in Charlottesville in support of a statue of Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee — an episode that devolved into deadly violence.

The following year, the national ACLU issued new guidelines, which seek to balance the free speech rights of even “the most repugnant speakers” against a variety of factors, including the speech’s “potential effect on marginalized communities.”

In 2021, Goldberger told Michael Powell of the New York Times that he had the sense it was more important for the ACLU “to identify with clients and progressive causes than to stand on principle” and that “liberals are leaving the First Amendment behind.” Powell’s article, widely discussed in the legal community and beyond, characterized the ACLU as facing an “identity crisis.”

David Cole, the ACLU’s national legal director, rejects Powell’s thesis.

“To be frank, I think Powell’s piece was an article in search of the author’s pre-committed theme,” Cole wrote me in an email. “He didn’t cite a single case we declined taking.” Cole says the organization remains committed to defending speech. “There is nothing to the charge that we would not defend the Nazis right to march today,” Cole wrote, noting that he’d written the guidelines. “The guidelines merely provide a process by which competing interests can be considered,” he added, “not a process by which lawsuits can be killed.”

Others are less convinced. Ira Glasser, who directed the ACLU from 1978 to 2001 and figures prominently in Powell’s article, told me “the ACLU has not completely abandoned but diluted” its commitment to speech. Most of the roughly two dozen people I interviewed for this piece expressed admiration for the ACLU but said the organization — which commenced more than 400 legal actions against Trump — had become a hybrid of a progressive political advocacy and civil libertarian organization. To hardcore civil libertarians, these positions are mutually exclusive.

An essential premise of civil libertarianism has always been that one could defend the rights of a speaker without agreeing with their message, even in the most extreme cases. Today, it’s no longer clear whether one can defend a racist’s right to speech without being considered a racist. This uncertainty is especially pronounced on college campuses. “Universities,” Binder says, “are confusing in the messages they send about speech.”

The ambiguity has also caused significant, perhaps irreparable, damage to the perception of civil libertarians. The label, once proudly worn by the likes of Clarence Darrow and William Kunstler, is no longer displayed without reservation. While writing my last book, about inequities in higher education, a college admissions officer who is also a civil libertarian asked me not to mention this identification, fearing its negative connotation. After my book’s publication, Lukianoff posted a kind message about it on the website formerly known as Twitter. When I expressed my gratitude, Lukianoff wrote, “To be honest, Evan, I am so used to the culture wars being so damn nasty, I was genuinely afraid you might say ‘well I don’t want HIS support for my book!’”

Despite everything, Lukianoff remains buoyant enough about the future of free speech that under his direction, FIRE, which recently changed the E from Education to Expression, will spend $75 million over the next three years on free speech advocacy in the general public, including $10 million on pro-free speech billboards in 15 American cities.

The Canceling also offers many sensible suggestions for improving speech culture. Hearkening to The Coddling, Lukianoff and Schlott urge parents and K-12 educators to raise and teach more resilient children. They call upon colleges to admit a more diverse student body so that faculty don’t feel compelled to engage in virtue signaling; to recommit to free speech and academic freedom; and to strive for political neutrality. (Their message seems particularly timely given the recent campus controversies surrounding the Hamas-Israeli conflict.) It’s an appealing vision of Americans coming together to recommit themselves to first principles. It also feels, for anyone who has spent time recently on a college campus or social media site, a somewhat fanciful one.

By some measure, Lukianoff’s optimism is his most remarkable trait. Despite having spent a lifetime defending students and professors who’ve had their careers threatened or destroyed over a single statement, he describes himself as “intellectually optimistic about the future of freedom of speech.” It’s one of several commonalities Lukianoff shares with the many prominent civil libertarians I’ve interviewed over the course of my career. Most, like Lukianoff, grew up as free-range kids. Some, like Lukianoff, had benefited from therapy. All, like Lukianoff, believed in the American project.

“Practicing free speech,” he writes in his new book, “is the lifeblood of a free society. At the very beginning of the American founders’ vision is freedom of speech.”

But even the greatest optimist can’t help but wonder whether Americans remain capable of tolerating the complexity Fitzgerald identified as the mark of a first-rate intelligence. In conversation, Lukianoff — who used to talk gleefully about this being the best moment in human history to be alive — describes the threats to the American experiment as dire.

Listening to his message is a sobering experience. With respect to higher education, Lukianoff says, “I hear some will to fix things, but I’m skeptical.”

And with respect to what may be the most significant threat to civil liberties in America — Trump’s reelection bid — Lukianoff sounds an even more ominous note.

“Jan. 6 was unlike anything I expected to see in my career,” he told me. “I’m really scared about next year.”

Democrats keep getting new warning signs about Black voter support

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Democrats are about to find out how worried they need to be about Black voter support.

After a lot of hand-wringing in recent years, elections next month in Mississippi and Virginia — two Southern states with large Black populations — will offer one final, robust read going into 2024 on the extent of the slippage among Democrats’ most reliable bloc of voters.

The warning signs have been flashing.

President Joe Biden’s approval rating with Black voters has dropped disproportionately compared with white voters, polls show, driving down his overall numbers. Last week’s election of a Republican governor in Louisiana, the first in eight years, suggested diminished voter enthusiasm in the areas with the largest Black populations.

And just this week, a prominent Democratic data firm published a report outlining declining support for Democrats in last year’s midterm elections among younger Black voters, Black men and Black voters without college degrees.

There’s no one simple answer for why Democrats are losing Black support at the margins. Some conservative Black voters are aligning with the GOP as the parties become more ideologically homogenous. And inflation and other economic struggles in recent years — which have driven much of the widespread dissatisfaction with Biden — have hit communities of color harder.

What’s clear is that Biden can’t safely assume he’ll be able to reassemble the coalition that he rode to victory three years ago. Black support for Democrats has been slipping slightly for the better part of a decade, since Barack Obama, the country’s first Black president, was last on the ballot in 2012.

There are signs Republicans may have continued since 2020 to pull some Black voters away from Democrats. That is bad news for Biden.

In a Quinnipiac University poll this week, about 2-in-3 Black voters, 65 percent, said they approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president.

A Fox News poll earlier this month found Biden leading Trump in a hypothetical rematch among Black voters by a roughly three-to-one margin, 74 percent to 26 percent. That may seem high, but it’s down sharply from 2020, when Biden won 90 percent of Black voters, according to Democratic data firm Catalist.

The firm releases studies of the electorate using records showing which people voted in an election. This week, it released new reports analyzing voter subgroups, and its deep dive into Black voters showed support for Democrats fell in last year’s midterms.

The new analysis found that 88 percent of Black voters in the 2022 elections voted for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district — down from 91 percent two years earlier.

The steepest drops for Democrats were among Black voters in the millennial and Gen Z generations (from 91 percent in 2020 to 84 percent in 2022), Black men (87 percent to 83 percent), Black voters in rural areas (84 percent to 80 percent) and Black voters without a college degree (91 percent to 87 percent).

The danger for Democrats among Black voters is also about turnout, and last week’s election for governor in Louisiana was the latest warning.

Republican state Attorney General Jeff Landry won the election to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards. Landry was long expected to prevail in the end, but the timing and scope of his victory surprised many who thought he would finish under the 50-percent-plus-one threshold to win the seat outright in the primary.

There’s evidence that Democrats — and Black voters in particular — didn’t show up. Statewide turnout was about 36 percent, down a steep 10 points from 46 percent in the 2019 gubernatorial primary. But the turnout drop was even sharper in many of the state’s parishes with large Black populations.

Of the 15 Louisiana parishes where Census data show at least 40 percent of residents are Black, the turnout drop was greater than the statewide average in 10 of them, including in the parishes containing the state’s two largest cities, New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

On the other end of the spectrum, 10 of the 15 parishes with the smallest Black populations had turnout drops that were smaller than the statewide average. It will be a few weeks until official turnout data by race are available, but there does appear to be some connection between shifts in turnout at the parish level and the racial component of those places.

“The anemic Black vote was certainly part of” how Landry decisively won last week, said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster in Louisiana.

“You had a Black candidate for governor who, number one, failed to excite any kind of Black turnout, number two, ran 20 percentage points behind a white, moderate Democrat,” Couvillon said, pointing to Democratic candidate Shawn Wilson’s underperformance compared to Edwards’ successful reelection campaign four years ago. “And number three, Jeff Landry was getting double digits [in heavily Black precincts] once you got outside of the urban areas of Baton Rouge and New Orleans — that very much catches my attention.”

Of course, that’s just one election, and there are reasons to take the Louisiana results with a grain of salt. In particular, Wilson was vastly underfunded compared to Landry and groups supporting other GOP candidates. Wilson spent about $610,000 on advertising, according to data from AdImpact, far less than Landry ($7.2 million), the Republican Governors Association’s PAC ($3.7 million), another pro-Landry outside group called Protect Louisiana’s Children ($2.7 million), a PAC supporting the third-place finisher Stephen Waguespack ($2 million) and the fourth-place candidate John Schroder ($1.9 million).

So I’ll be watching several races in the coming weeks for signs of depressed enthusiasm or shifting winds among this key bloc of voters.

At the top of my list is next month’s gubernatorial election in Mississippi, where Black voters make up nearly 40 percent of the electorate, the largest share of any state in the country. Brandon Presley, the Democratic nominee, is competitive with GOP Gov. Tate Reeves on the airwaves. And Presley’s campaign is touting a multimillion-dollar, get-out-the-vote effort aimed at Black voters.

Presley is the underdog against Reeves, and a defeat doesn’t mean his party is in a death spiral with Black voters nationally — Mississippi hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 1999. But the final results from Nov. 7 will be instructive, both in cities like Jackson and in rural counties that comprise the “Black Belt” that stretches across the South.

Also keep your eyes on the state legislative races in Virginia, which also has a sizable Black population.

Two of the most competitive state Senate races are in Southeast Virginia districts where Black residents make up at least a quarter of the population, as are three contested state House districts stretching from Petersburg to Hampton Roads.

Those races could be the majority-makers for each party in the pitched battle to control both chambers of the General Assembly. They’ll also provide more answers about where Black voters stand — and how enthusiastic they are — going into 2024.

Why colleges are struggling with their response to the Israel-Hamas war

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NEW YORK — A Cornell University professor called the Hamas attacks “exhilarating” and “energizing.” A Yale professor dubbed Israel a “murderous, genocidal settler state.”

Meanwhile, top donors at the University of Pennsylvania — including former U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman Jr. — have pulled their financial support over charges that the institution doesn’t do enough to fight antisemitism on campus.

Similar battles are becoming commonplace on college campuses across the country amid the Israel-Hamas war, often pitting wealthy donors against college presidents and students versus staff. It has created a volatile mix that is causing indecision among administrators and highlighting long-brewing ideological splits at some of the nation’s most respected institutions.

“What has happened is we are so afraid of engaging in picking sides and it becomes too passive,” said Jim Malatras, former chancellor of the State University of New York. “What we end up with is echo chambers, which only fuels the hate. It fuels the vitriol, and you were experiencing this even before the situation that we’re dealing with.”

Some students have talked about fearing for their safety on campuses, while others — including Harvard and Columbia law students who have criticized Israel’s policies — are losing job offers.

American University Professor Lara Schwartz described efforts to limit students’ speech surrounding the war as “enormously troubling.”

“Sometimes students are going to say things that shock other community members, that disgust other community members,” Schwartz said in an interview. “Making space for that dialogue, including people countering them saying, ‘Here’s why these students are wrong,’ that’s all part of protected expression and dialogues that we’re looking for.”

Others think the heated rhetoric on campus has turned into straight antisemitic views, saying colleges need to fire staff that celebrate the Hamas attacks in Israel.

“As a person of authority at an educational institution, to celebrate murder, rape and abducting children and slaughtering children, I think he should be fired,” Gillibrand told a Syracuse TV station about the comments of Cornell Professor Russell Rickford.

Rickford described the Hamas attacks as “exhilarating” and “energizing” at a rally. He has since apologized for his remarks, admitting some of the language he used was “reprehensible.” Rickford did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Following days of backlash, Cornell President Martha Pollack this week maintained that Rickford’s comments “speak in direct opposition to all we stand for at Cornell.” The university, she said, is reviewing the incident.

Suzanne Nossel, the CEO of PEN America, an advocacy group for free expression on college campuses, said institutions are in an “incredibly challenging” moment.

Collegiate leadership, she said, needs to distinguish between free speech and actions such as vandalism, assaults and the targeting of students in their response to the political climate.

“A lot of what people are experiencing as hostile and creating a hostile environment is protected speech and protected expression,” Nossel said in an interview. “That is bumping up against the obligation to make the campus a place that offers an equal education.”

As alumni and powerful donors lean on institutions to crack down, many presidents are facing pressure to take a stance, resulting in political clashes on campuses with students on either side of the conflict.

Following backlash from alumni, Penn President Liz Magill said in a statement she hears their “anger, pain, and frustration” and is taking action to make clear that the institution stands “emphatically” against the attacks. The school supports the “free exchange of ideas” but has a “moral responsibility” to combat antisemitism, she added.

Her words came after the damage was done. Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and U.S. ambassador, said he and his family, after donating hundreds of millions of dollars to the college over decades, will “close its checkbook” on future giving.

“The University’s silence in the face of reprehensible and historic Hamas evil against the people of Israel (when the only response should be outright condemnation) is a new low,” Huntsman wrote.

“Silence is antisemitism, and antisemitism is hate, the very thing higher ed was built to obviate” he wrote in a letter to Magill first published by the school newspaper.

The strife on campuses has roiled state and local politics.

Universities in Florida are fielding calls to punish students and groups who participated in pro-Palestine rallies since the war broke out. Florida’s only Jewish GOP lawmaker, state Rep. Randy Fine, called for punishment including expulsion of students and faculty who spout antisemitic views.

The most notable example in the Sunshine State came at Florida Atlantic University last week when a march supporting Palestinians resulted in three arrests after a clash broke out between counter-protesters. Last week, Columbia shut down for a day amid dueling protests.

“Jews, not just in Israel, but right here in Florida, do not feel safe today,” Fine said Wednesday.

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, a Republican, said he’s been “disgusted” by some of the responses from leaders across the country. He signaled his committee may look to revoke some universities’ tax-exempt statuses.

He pointed out how 34 Harvard student organizations last week issued a statement holding Israel at fault for the attacks and a student group at the University of Virginia expressed support for the “right of colonized people everywhere to resist the occupation of their land by whatever means they deem necessary.”

In addition, Republican Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) on Thursday called on the Department of Homeland Security to deport any “foreign national” — including students here on visas — who have expressed support for Hamas and its attack.

“While American citizens may have a First Amendment right to speak disgusting vitriol if they so choose, no foreign national has a right to advocate for terrorism in the United States,” Cotton wrote in a letter.

Campus presidents have reacted differently: some backing Israel while others have been more neutral.

Columbia President Minouche Shafik last week said she was “devastated” by the attack and “the ensuing violence that is affecting so many people.”

A Columbia spokesperson referred to messages Interim Provost Dennis Mitchell sent to students and staff. Mitchell said freedom of expression is “a core University value” but also urged individuals to treat each other “with civility and respect.”

Meanwhile, state leaders and students are talking increasingly about ensuring safety on campuses.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday told reporters campus safety is a priority for state law enforcement given that schools are ripe for protests.

NYPD late Wednesday said the city is at high alert and remains at an “all-out deployment.”

In addition to more counseling on campuses, colleges have increased security measures to address the rise in antisemitism and Islamophobia — especially following the fatal stabbing of a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy in Illinois.

Palestinian, Arab and Muslim students accused universities of not offering them the same assistance and resources that they have to Jewish students.

At Columbia University — where pro-Palestine and pro-Israel rallies took place concurrently, prompting the university to close its campus to the public — members of the Muslim Students Association have faced doxxing attacks.

Anum, the Muslim Students Association president, blasted Columbia officials for failing to issue a statement denouncing Islamophobia on campus and urged them to do so swiftly. She also suggested the university develop an escort system for Muslim students who don’t feel safe walking alone on campus. She asked to be identified by her first name for safety reasons.

“I personally did go home this weekend and I know other students who also went home because they didn’t feel safe on campus and unfortunately not everybody has the luxury to go home during times like these,” said Anum.

But Jenna Citron Schwab, executive director of Queens Hillel — a Jewish organization at Queens College — praised the institution for boosting security on campus. The school has 4,000 Jewish students.

“The campus environment is very fragile — particularly at this moment — and this is definitely the first time in my 12 years here that I’ve had students come to me and say they’re scared and concerned about antisemitism,” Schwab said.

Andrew Atterbury contributed to this report.

Dinner diplomacy: How John Kerry convened VIPs and lawmakers to ease the climate talks

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In March, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry co-hosted an exclusive dinner in D.C. for a top figure in the upcoming United Nations climate talks.

Administration officials, the heads of leading environmental organizations, business representatives and select journalists were among those invited to dine at Cafe Milano with Sultan al-Jaber, a powerful energy executive from the United Arab Emirates.

Al-Jaber, who will serve as leader of the talks in the UAE’s gleaming coastal city of Dubai, is also CEO of the country’s state-run oil company — a dual role that has earned him attacks from climate activists and at least one of the dinner’s attendees.

The gathering, first reported by POLITICO’s E&E News, underscores the Biden administration’s recognition of the political challenges it will confront at the summit, where al-Jaber is already facing criticism for reaping fossil fuel profits while leading talks on the urgency of cutting greenhouse gas pollution. Kerry, who has defended al-Jaber as a “terrific choice” to preside over the summit, used the dinner to introduce the oil chief to people with an influential role in the U.S. climate debate.

People invited to attend the March dinner included two members of Congress, Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), as well as New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman and Financial Times U.S. national editor Edward Luce, according to a guest list obtained by E&E News. All four confirmed, either directly or through representatives, that they attended.

Curtis and Whitehouse are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to their ideas about what it will take to solve the climate crisis, representing the divide that Kerry and others might hope to bridge in the upcoming talks.

Curtis leads the 80-member House Conservative Climate Caucus and accepts the reality of human-made climate change — as well as the need to cut greenhouse gases — but is protective of fossil fuels. Whitehouse chairs the Senate Budget Committee, is a longtime climate hawk and would like to see fossil fuels abolished.

They’ve also expressed sharply different opinions about the dinner’s guest of honor. Whitehouse is one of 133 lawmakers in the U.S. and Europe who have called for ousting al-Jaber as the climate summit’s president-designate, saying his role as a top oil and gas executive “risks undermining the negotiations” about a proposed phase-out of fossil fuels.

Curtis, in contrast, praised al-Jaber’s appointment as “a wonderful opportunity to highlight the role of fossil fuels in reducing emissions.”

“Every energy expert in the world will tell you we are using fossil fuels in 2050, and it’s not realistic to have a conversation about zero fossil fuels,” he added.

Curtis called the meeting “a great dinner, thoughtful conversation.” Whitehouse was more circumspect, saying he expressed his concerns about al-Jaber’s role in the summit and whether the “corporate establishment” was up to the task of fighting climate change.

The two-week summit starting in late November, known as COP28, will include debate about creating a roadmap for cutting greenhouse gas pollution as climate change has grown more dire. The talks could be further complicated by the war between Hamas and Israel.

Curtis has attended the last two U.N. climate summits. His track record of participation — as well as his enthusiasm for having oil and gas at the head of the table for this year’s upcoming meeting — has helped endear him to the Biden administration and to Kerry, in particular.

The climate envoy now regards Curtis as “someone who is taking the climate crisis seriously,” according to a State Department spokesperson. The spokesperson was granted anonymity to share details about the relationship between the two men.

Curtis had kind words for Kerry, in turn: “I would place John Kerry as someone who has been one of those individuals who have been willing to listen to me and listen to our questions — and not only me: He’s met with a number of us on the Conservative Climate Caucus.”

Kerry and several other global climate leaders have said that progress on tackling climate change could benefit from having the oil and gas industry at the table, and he’s urged them to take action to cut their greenhouse gas pollution.

‘BS and mischief and greenwashing and fakery’

Whitehouse characterized the dinner as “one of those kinds of large D.C. dinners and kind of each person gets their chance to just say a few minutes’ worth of stuff, so I expressed my concerns, which are not just [al-Jaber], but the whole sort of corporate establishment, which is doing essentially zero to help us politically.”

He, too, plans to go to the summit but with lower expectations than Curtis.

“There’s the prospect of a kind of ‘Nixon Goes to China’ moment, in which, by virtue of representing industry, it can make bigger demands of the industry,” said Whitehouse.

He was referring to the 1972 visit by Richard Nixon in which the staunchly anti-communist president stunned the world by thawing a decadeslong diplomatic freeze between the two nations.

“But,” Whitehouse continued, “my experience has been that the industry is full of BS and mischief and greenwashing and fakery, so I think the odds of that are pretty slim.”

Over the past decade, the UAE has spent millions of dollars on advisory firms and think tanks to help burnish its environmental credentials, an investigation by POLITICO’s E&E News recently found.

Whitehouse did express some hope that a policy the United Nations adopted over the summer — to require all COP28 delegates to disclose their affiliations with fossil fuel companies — could make the proceedings more productive.

“I was the instigator of a letter that produced the disclosure requirement,” said Whitehouse, “and we’re working to try to put some format and teeth into that.”

‘Wide range of opinions’

Hessa Alshuwaihi, head of communications and public diplomacy for the UAE Embassy in Washington, confirmed that UAE Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba was a co-host of the dinner for al-Jaber alongside Kerry.

She described it as “an off-the-record discussion [that] allowed Dr. Sultan to hear a wide range of opinions and answer questions on advancing climate action in the lead-up to COP28.”

The State Department also confirmed the event but declined to provide a readout.

Matt Letourneau, director of communications from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s global energy institute, said the gathering was meant to introduce al-Jaber to policy leaders in Washington as he took on the role of COP president-designate.

Two months after U.S. Chamber President and CEO Suzanne Clark attended the dinner, her organization led atrade mission to the UAE to connect dozens of U.S. businesses with potential investment opportunities. The Chamber will lead a sizable delegation to COP28, as well.

Others in attendance back in March included Fred Kempe, CEO of the Atlantic Council; Armond Cohen, executive director of the Clean Air Task Force, a global environmental organization; and Ani Dasgupta, president and CEO of the World Resources Institute.

Spokespeople for these groups all said they are actively engaging with leaders at all levels to drive action and push for strong outcomes at this year’s climate talks.

“As such, Ani joined [the dinner] to demonstrate solidarity with vulnerable countries and advocate for bold climate solutions, including by directly sharing our views with the COP 28 presidency, just as we have with others in the past,” said Alison Cinnamond, media director for the World Resources Institute.

Charm offensive

Such gatherings in advance of high-profile climate summits are not unusual, said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at the climate think tank E3G.

“That’s part of what Secretary Kerry does. … He goes around to a lot of these different events around the world to meet with ministers and leaders and others,” Meyer said. “And certainly, the embassy of the country hosting the COP often has gatherings in Washington and other key capitals in advance of the COP to bring people together as part of its outreach and consultation process.”

The UAE has been pushing countries to agree to targets for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency, but it has not pursued an equally strong commitment to phasing out fossil fuel production and use.

The State Department spokesperson said Kerry was determined to see al-Jaber make substantive recommendations for climate action and follow through on his commitments.

He would keep al-Jaber to his word, the spokesperson said: “The proof is in the pudding.”