Blinken: Israel and Gaza cannot return to ‘status quo’

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As Israel prepares to launch a ground invasion on Gaza more than two weeks after the surprise attack by Hamas, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that Israel has “absolutely no intent” to govern Gaza again.

“I think we know two things. We can’t go back to the status quo; they can’t go back to the status quo with Hamas being in a position in terms of its governance of Gaza to repeat what it did,” Blinken said during an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“At the same time, what I’ve heard from the Israelis is absolutely no intent, no desire, to be running Gaza themselves.”

Since the Oct. 7 incursion during which Hamas militants stormed out of the Gaza Strip and killed more than 1,300 people while abducting as many as 200 more, Israel has commenced an aggressive counterattack, with casualties mounting among the civilian population of Gaza; additional Israelis have died as well.

Israel has besieged the densely populated coastal region for almost two weeks, choking the flow of food and medical aid into the area amid fears the supplies could fall into the hands of the militant group Hamas.

As Israel intensified airstrikes over the weekend in preparation for a ground invasion, the first 20 aid trucks entered Gaza on Saturday after being blocked near the Egyptian-controlled Rafah border crossing.

The ongoing blockade of Gaza has pushed the enclave’s 2.3 million people to the brink of starvation, Cindy McCain, executive director of the U.N.’s World Food Program, told POLITICO on Sunday.

Israeli leaders have vowed to wipe Hamas, the Palestinian group in charge of governing Gaza, “off the face of the earth.”

Gaza, formerly controlled by Egypt, was occupied by Israel during the Six Day War in 1967. Hamas came to run Gaza in 2006, after Israel withdrew its soldiers and settlers there, though Israel and Egypt maintained a blockade of Gaza’s borders. What the governing structure will be for the region when the fighting ends is unclear.

“Something needs to be found that ensures Hamas can’t do this again, but that also doesn’t revert to Israeli governance of Gaza — which they do not want, and do not intend to do,” Blinken said.

Bill Belichick reportedly agreed to multi-year extension with Patriots before season

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News of Bill Belichick’s contract status with the Patriots leaked ahead of Sunday’s game against the Bills.

Belichick and the Patriots “quietly agreed to terms on a lucrative multi-year new contract” this offseason, NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport reported Sunday morning on “NFL GameDay.”

From @NFLGameDay: This past offseason, #Patriots coach Bill Belichick quietly agreed to a lucrative multi-year new contract, sources say. That, at least, adds some context to the discussions about the greatest coach in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/ZPjRxzMVzJ

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 22, 2023

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It is interesting that Rapoport said “agreed to terms” rather than “signed.”

This news is especially relevant with the Patriots starting the season 1-5. There has been speculation that Patriots owner Robert Kraft could move on from Belichick, who serves as head coach and general manager, if the struggles continue.

“My understanding is he would not be inclined to make a move mid-season,” Rapoport said of Kraft.

The Patriots would likely need to eat money if they fired Belichick. Belichick’s contract would likely transfer over if he was traded.

Winning cures all, however.

Real World Economics: America’s natural bounty became its destiny

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Edward Lotterman

Before his disastrous invasion of Russia, Napoleon Bonaparte said, “Geography is destiny!”

And even today, this assertion prompts useful thinking about how geography influences development of economies over time and why apparently similar countries can have quite different outcomes.

Such effects can be very broad, as on settlement or cropping patterns, but also on very micro levels such as the evolution of the modern agricultural tractor.

Start with introductory geopolitics. The U.S. has prospered politically in geographic “splendid isolation.” Thousands of miles of ocean separate us from Europe or Asia. Attacking across these distances, over history, has been virtually impossible. Our neighbor to the north has the same language and similar culture, politics and values. That to the south is also friendly despite having been mostly sinned against rather than sinning, with tensions lingering to this day

Not so for nations on the great northern European plain, stretching from the English channel across the Low Countries, northern France and Germany, Poland and Ukraine to southwestern Russia. There are no large natural barriers to military forces, and sundry armies have crossed and recrossed the continent from virtually every direction for 2,000 years. Switzerland in its mountains and the Scandinavian countries on their archipelagoes are somewhat luckier.

Zoom in a bit to look at topography. The United States, Brazil and Russia all have vast forests and plains, mineral deposits and many rivers. But at the time Europeans began to wrest what is now our country from indigenous peoples, we had a lot in our favor compared to the other two. At the outset, we took a relatively broad coastal plain with several good natural harbors plus many rivers running to the sea. The Hudson, tidal to well north of Albany, was a doorway for ocean shipping as was Chesapeake Bay. From Albany west, one was soon in the Mohawk River Valley. That led west toward Lake Erie, above the barrier of Niagara Falls.

Once on the Great Lakes of Erie and Huron, we had water transport routes for products from the “Old Northwest” of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and points west. Further down the Atlantic coast, the Delaware Water Gap and Cumberland Gap gave access across the Appalachians to the vast Ohio-Mississippi-Missouri river watersheds. From the start, prior to steamboats, those gave easy transport downriver to New Orleans. With steam power, commerce up and down stream and on smaller tributaries soon was common. The Erie Canal and the first Soo locks afforded increasingly cheap transport for farm, forestry and mining output. All the while, abundant water power from Atlantic-flowing rivers fostered textile and other industrialization from Maine to the Carolinas.

Brazil faced less favorable conditions. It had some good harbors. But a sharp coastal escarpment rose quickly from the coast. Rivers down from this were tiny. There were few easy gaps. On top, the uplands slope away to the west. The city of Sao Paulo is only 30 miles from the Atlantic, but rain falling there flows away west and south and only reaches the Atlantic via the River Plate between Argentina and Uruguay. The rivers were small and too interrupted by rapids and falls for easy steamboat navigation to any port.

Other parts of the central high plains flow toward the Amazon. That is a vast flat waterway leading in. One can take a freighter 2,500 river miles from the Atlantic to Porto Velho, only 125 miles from Bolivia, and be only 270 feet above sea level. The problem is that to get from this enormous river to the central plains one again must climb sharp escarpments. Rivers flow down rapids and waterfalls of the kind that nearly killed Theodore Roosevelt in 1913. These are too extreme to ever be bypassed economically by canals and locks.

So while natural resource-based sectors thrived across the central United States in the 1800s, they stagnated in Brazil. It faced a chicken-egg dilemma. No use to mine ore or grow grain because of no way to get products to market. And there was no incentive to build railroads or roads into the interior with apparently nothing of value to transport out.

Russia had similar problems, rich resources and many rivers, both in historic Russia itself and in Siberia. There were mountains, but no immediate barriers as for Brazil. However, many of the important rivers flowed north into the Arctic Ocean and hence were useless for transport. Some did flow to the Black Sea. Odesa, now in Ukraine, long was one of the world’s most important wheat ports. Yet there was no easy east-west transport to bring minerals or logs to industries in historic European Russia.

Nature seemed to add insult to injury. North America has an enormous wheat-growing area stretching from Texas into Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Russia’s is similarly enormous, but stretches east-west while narrow from south to north..

Crops ripen south to north in this hemisphere. North American work crews and machines could start in Texas in early June and still be at it north of Winnipeg in October. Russia’s wheat had to be reaped in less than half that time. So labor and machine use has always been less efficient and transport more overwhelmed.

Argentina also had vast wheat fields. In the southern hemisphere, it would bring in impoverished rural youths from southern Italy to harvest wheat during their winter. Dubbed “golondrinas” or swallows for their annual peregrination, temporary migrant workers were economically efficient. But Argentina ended up with a very different pattern of landholdings, rural society and political culture than the United States, Canada or Australia, nations otherwise similar in many ways.

Now focus in even closer. In labor-scarce and capital-rich United States, steam tractors began to take over heavy tillage in the late 1800s, a process described very ably by Concordia-Moorhead historian Hiram Drache. But the machines were huge, too large for Midwest family farms. As internal combustion power became more practical, a family farm tractor became a holy grail.

One goal was that beside tillage, cutting and binding small grains and powering stationary threshing machines, these would handle the repeated mechanical “cultivating” needed to keep weeds out of cornfields. These had to continue until the corn was tall enough to shade 40-inch paths between rows. So tractors needed a narrow front end to go between rows and a high rear axle to allow the machine to pass over corn without damage. The seat had to be well back so that operators could reach levers and ropes controlling implements being pulled.

The result was a machine that tipped over easily and that required the operator to mount and dismount right over the dangerous turning shaft that powered binders, balers, choppers and combines. Deaths and injuries, often including amputations, regularly resulted in addition to crushing in rollovers.

A Scottish engineer, Harry Ferguson, allied for a while with Henry Ford, had a better idea. It was a lower machine with front wheels set as far apart as the rear ones and a step up for the driver between the front and back wheels, safely away from power shafts.

Again geography comes into play: If corn had been important in Britain, Ferguson might not have made this design. But he was familiar with hilly fields in Scotland and various “dales” areas of England where a tractor pulling a separate plow uphill and hitting a rock might suddenly flip back over killing the driver. The “top link” in his 3-point system prevented that. U.S. Farmall, John Deere, Case and Minneapolis-Moline tractors developed to meet U.S. conditions while Ferguson’s was optimal for Britain. As overall tractor size and height grew and with chemical herbicides ending mechanical cultivation, Ferguson’s basic design became the rule.

Only a few examples, but consider how the interplay between physical and biological environments influence the economies and politics — and history — that has developed.

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St. Paul economist and writer Edward Lotterman can be reached at stpaul@edlotterman.com.

U of M police ask for help in finding missing college student

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University of Minnesota police on Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, were asking for help in the search of 19-year-old Sumith Maddi. (University of Minnesota Police)

University of Minnesota police are asking for help in finding a 19-year-old college student.

Sumith Maddi was last seen leaving the 17th Avenue Residence Hall around 2:40 a.m. on Saturday wearing a black puffy down jacket, black pants and white shoes, according to the department.

Anyone with information is asked to call 911 or the University of Minnesota Police Department at 612-624-2677.

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