Elizabeth Shackleford: Commentary: Little islands could spur big trouble in the South China Sea

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The South China Sea has become one of the world’s most dangerous potential flashpoints.

Territorial disputes in this area — often over uninhabitable rocks — have been a source of conflict and competing claims for a century. But China has become more aggressive recently with its claims to the area. With great power competition heating up worldwide, this could translate to big trouble.

In June, Chinese coast guard ships rammed and boarded Philippine navy vessels, using machetes, axes and hammers to damage the boats and threaten the crews. It was the latest and most violent in a series of confrontations between China and the Philippines in the area.

At the core of the clash was Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands, a little more than 100 nautical miles west of the Philippines, where the Philippine navy has maintained a presence with a handful of marines on a grounded Navy transport ship since 1999. The Philippine vessels were attacked as they were resupplying the outpost.

Why such violence over a rocky feature that doesn’t even qualify as land? For the Philippines, it’s a matter of sovereignty and standing up to the Chinese government’s overreach. Under international law, this shoal falls well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

For many others, including the United States, China’s aggressive claim to Second Thomas Shoal is part of a bigger threat to freedom of navigation in critical shipping lanes and to accessing a wealth of natural resources, from massive oil and natural gas reserves to abundant fish and seafood.

Several countries in the region lay claim to some of the islands, rocks and territorial waters of the South China Sea, but China’s claims are the most sweeping by far. They are demonstrated by the nine-dash line first detailed in a map China issued in 1947, which encompasses nearly the entirety of the sea, in an awkward U-shape stretching far south of China’s shores.

The nine-dash line is such a source of angst that Vietnam banned last year’s blockbuster movie “Barbie” because it portrays a childlike map that appears to show a dotted trail extending into the ocean from where China would be on the Asian landmass.

China has tried to strengthen its claim by expanding the size of islands it physically controls and by building new islands and militarizing them.

By the 1990s, China expanded its claims beyond islands and rocks to include the water itself, the seabed below and the airspace above. This is in clear violation of the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention — a treaty that China not only signed but also helped negotiate.

The shipping lanes mean these local skirmishes have global implications, and potentially global responses, since more than 20% of all global trade and 60% of maritime trade pass through these waters. A meaningful threat to the global economy doesn’t stay local for long.

This is a big part of America’s interest in maintaining peace and security in the region. Freedom of navigation is one of the oldest principles of international law, going back 400 years. The United States has made the defense of freedom of navigation worldwide a core U.S. national security priority.

But an even riskier element comes from U.S. security commitments in the region — one in particular.

The United States engages in defense cooperation with Vietnam, but has no clear commitments to come to its defense. The U.S. government has enshrined into law its commitment to assist Taiwan in case of an attack, but the nature of how we would do so remains intentionally ambiguous.

The Philippines, however, is a treaty ally with whom we’ve clearly agreed to mutual defense.

This means that an armed attack on the Philippines would invoke America’s commitment to defend it. If that attack comes from China, the United States could quickly find itself in direct conflict with a near-peer global power.

For decades, it wasn’t at all clear how the Philippines’ claims to these disputed islands factored into that commitment. This suited the U.S. government, since ambiguity was a deterrent to any provocations by the Philippines against China’s competing claims.

But that all changed in 2019, when then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated publicly that the islands were included in that pact. Today, U.S. government guidelines make clear that the commitment applies to Philippines assets anywhere within the South China Sea.

The good news is that the United States and its partners in the region are eager, so far, to avoid full-scale war. Since the most recent skirmish, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has publicly stated that his country is “not in the business to instigate wars,” and his government indicated that it would not invoke its treaty with the United States over the incident.

Avoiding war with China, though, requires the Philippines and its Western ally to strike the right balance by not escalating tensions with China but also not emboldening it to go further.

It will also depend on how keen China is to avoid war, and given its recent actions, that might not be a shared priority.

Elizabeth Shackelford is the Magro Family Distinguished Visitor in International Affairs at Dartmouth College and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune. She was previously a U.S. diplomat and is the author of “The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age.”

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David French: Can Democratic leaders actually lead?

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One of the most consistent realities of the early Trump era in the Republican Party was the massive gap between elite knowledge of Donald Trump and voter perception of Trump. Party leaders saw him up close, knew of his scandals and deranged behavior and complained about him bitterly behind closed doors.

But then what happened? The same people not only deferred to voters who possessed a small fraction of their information; they actually contributed to public ignorance by defending Trump even from the most legitimate criticism. They made the problem worse and then complained bitterly about the predicament they helped create.

In other words, the leaders weren’t leaders at all.

I understand an elected Democrat’s desire to defend the party’s nominee until he’s not the nominee. I understand that every word uttered against President Joe Biden can be used by Trump if Biden stays in the race. But if you have real knowledge of Biden’s limitations and if you then sally forth into public to defend his competence in the face of known contrary facts, then you’ve become a version of what you hate. You’ve become a blue-hatted version of the red-hatted party loyalist.

Leadership can be a surprisingly tricky concept in a representative democracy. When you win your election, is your mission to do what your voters want? Or do you view the vote for you as essentially a vote of confidence in you as a person who can actually lead constituents rather than merely express their will?

The first model has essentially taken over the Republican Party. MAGA members of Congress enthusiastically share their voters’ love for Trump, but the remaining normie Republicans often rationalize a similar level of practical devotion to Trump (even while they still grumble behind closed doors) as simply yielding to their constituents’ demands.

The second model, however, demands more from its elected leaders. It demands a level of independent judgment commensurate with your superior access to information. If voters don’t like your judgment, they can certainly remove you in the next election. But still, what are you supposed to do with all those classified briefings, all those closed-door meetings and all that personal access?

The answers are simple to state but difficult for ambitious politicians to accept: You should speak with integrity about what you know to be true. Attempt to persuade constituents to conform their votes to that truth. And if you fail, so be it. Former members of Congress have no problem supporting their families or even exercising influence in the United States.

It’s time for Democratic leaders to lead, to tell the truth in private and in public. Republicans are determined to support a corrupt, aged and unfit man for president. It would be a political and moral failing if Democrats answered that grave challenge with an aged and unfit candidate of their own — all because Democratic leaders failed to heed the harsh lesson taught by the party to their right.

David French writes a column for the New York Times.

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What’s the song of the summer? Options range from Sabrina Carpenter to Shaboozey, Sexyy Red and beyond

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What’s the song of the summer?

If there could only be one, it would obviously be Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” a perfectly enticing confection whether sipped while still steaming hot or over ice.

But, of course, there’s more than one. We live in a to-each-their-own pop music universe. And in fact, the Bucks County native Carpenter has two all by herself, including her equally infectious “Please Please Please,” which has now passed “Espresso” on the pop charts.

So this annotated Spotify playlist is just that. Not a ranking of SOTS candidates, but a playlist that mixes name brand bangers with quieter, more bittersweet mood pieces, and includes plenty of Philly music makers besides Carpenter, like Snacktime, Dr. Dog, Bilal, and Best Bear.

Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”: Nonsensical, sugary, and delicious. Isn’t that what summertime pop is supposed to be? The cream on the Quakertown native’s hit has just the right amount of froth as it pulls inspiration from early 1980s pop-R&B.

Hozier, “Too Sweet”: The tall, dark, and soulful Irishman has a hit to rival his career-making 2013 “Take Me to Church.” The bass line grabs you, but what does that lyric about the TSA mean?

Billie Eilish, “Lunch”: “Been tryin’ hard not to overeat, you’re just so sweet.” Billie Eilish is at her most lusty on this tasty treat about “a craving, not a crush,” as she announces, “I could eat that girl for lunch.”

Charli XCX, “The Girl, So Confusing”: Charli XCX has written many hits for other artists like Icona Pop and Iggy Azalea, but now she has conquered the mainstream with her very own “Brat.” “The Girl, So Confusing” caused concern among fans who thought it dissed Lorde, who assures us all is well on this remix.

Kendrick Lamar performs during the 2023 Governors Ball Music Festival in New York on June 11, 2023. (Yuki Iwamura/AFP via Getty Images/TNS)

Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”: The victory lap that capped Lamar’s rap battle, in which he starts off with an allusion to M. Night Shyamalan’s “The Sixth Sense,” and then proceeds to call Drake “a colonizer.”

Snacktime, “Spaceluv”: The Philly horn happy party outfit continues to branch out on its latest single, which leans into interplanetary Parliament-Funkadelic funk.

Sexyy Red, “Get It Sexyy”: The St. Louis rapper celebrates herself on “In Sexyy We Trust.” “Hair done, bills paid, catch me slidin’ in a Benz/ I ain’t lookin’ for a man, ain’t recruitin’ no new friends.” Get it Sexyy!

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Dua Lipa, “French Exit”: Dua Lipa makes ghosting seem so reasonable in this “Radical Optimism” song about abruptly ending a relationship; it’s a collaboration with Kevin Parker of Australian psych-pop band Tame Impala.

Dr. Dog, “Love Struck”: A Scott McMicken-sung single featuring M. Ward from the welcome return of Philly’s Dr. Dog, who went on hiatus in 2021. The band has an album due July 19.

Cloud Nothings, “Final Summer”: Cloud Nothings are identified as a Cleveland band since that’s where the band originated. But leader Dylan Baldi lives in Philly, so we’re claiming him, too. The title track to the indie rock trio’s excellent eighth album is a reminder that summer won’t last forever.

Linda Thompson, “Solitary Traveller”: Tragically, Linda Thompson can’t sing anymore due to a medical condition called spasmodic dysphonia. So for her album “Proxy Music,” she had other people sing her songs. Her daughter, Kami, handles “Solitary Traveller,” with a lyric that hits home: “I had a voice clear and true … Never held my wicked tongue/ And now my voice is gone.”

Charley Crockett, “Solitary Man”: The prolific Texas country singer goes down a sun-blasted highway on this soulful tune from his new “$10 Cowboy.”

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”: The Virginia singer, rapper, and Beyoncé collaborator may seem like an overnight success, but his chart topping new, “Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going” is actually his third album. “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” recasts J-Kwon’s 2004 song “Tipsy” into a country drinking song.

Beyoncé, “Ya Ya”: This song from “the rodeo chitlin circuit” samples Nancy Sinatra’s “These Boots Are Made for Walkin’,” messes with the Beach Boys’ “Good Vibrations,” and gets its ya-ya’s out Tina Turner-style. An all-American summer combination.

Fontaines DC, “Favourite”: This sweet and sentimental single from the Dublin post-punk band is from “Romance,” due Aug. 23.

Best Bear, “Fireworks”: For its 24 Hour Song Challenge, WXPN-FM (88.5) gave contestants a day to write and record a song about “summertime.” The winner performs at September’s XPoNential Music Festival, among other prizes. The four finalists are Khalil Amaru, Mackenzie Johnson, Yuneer Gainz, and Best Bear — the songwriter whose “Fireworks” is a charmer about taking the A.C. Expressway to the Shore where romance might await.

Chappell Roan performs at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit on March 23, 2024. (Daniel Mears/The Detroit News/TNS)

Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!”: The soaring synth pop breakthrough for Kayleigh Rose Amstutz is a collaboration with Olivia Rodrigo producer Dan Nigro, RIYL, and Roan’s ‘80s heroines Kate Bush and Cyndi Lauper.

Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help”: Who isn’t Post Malone singing with? The rapper gone country is all over Beyoncé’s “Levii’s Jeans” and Taylor Swift’s “Fortnight.” Now, he’s got a Morgan Wallen bromance to boot.

Ibibio Sound Machine, “Got to Be Who U Are”: A self-pride anthem, from the sleek U.K. Afro-Funk ensemble’s “Pull the Rope.”

Bilal, “Soul Sista”: Sultry to say the least. A new version of underappreciated Philly vocalist Bilal Oliver’s signature song, from “Live at Glasshaus,” featuring Robert Glasper and Questlove.

Vampire Weekend, “Capricorn”: Ezra Koenig searches the signs of the zodiac for meaning, from “Only God Was Above Us.”

Frances Quinlan, “Another Season”: A stunner by the singer of Philly band Hop Along. It plays over the end credits of “I Saw the TV Glow,” Jane Schoenbrun’s troubled-teens horror movie that features a score by Philly indie hero Alex G.

Shangri-Las, “Out In The Streets”: Yes, this song sung by the late great Mary Weiss, who died in January, came out in 1965. It’s here on this list for its central role in “The Bikeriders,” the new Austin Butler and Jodie Comer motorcycle movie that has a top-notch 1960s era soundtrack, including the Animals, Magic Sam, Bo Diddley and Muddy Waters.

Jessica Pratt, “Life Is”: The “Be My Baby” drums on this highlight of Pratt’s fine “Here in the Pitch” hearkens back to the ‘60s girl-group sound.

Margo Price and Mike Campbell, “Ways To Be Wicked”: Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers guitarist Campbell wrote this gem for Lone Justice in the 1980s, and Price and Campbell have revived it for “Petty Country: A Country Tribute To Tom Petty,” which features Chris Stapleton, Dolly Parton and George Strait.

MJ Lenderman, “She’s Leaving You”: The North Carolina guitarist is a supremely gifted songwriter. This single from the forthcoming “Manning Fireworks” features Wednesday’s Karly Hartzman and a droll lyric about a sad sack Eric Clapton fan.

Zach Bryan, “Pink Skies”: Summertime sadness, a la Lana Del Rey. Bryan sets the scene at a funeral on this single from “Great American Bar Scene,” which drops July 4.

Ariana Grande, “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)”: Sad club music reminiscent of “Dancing On My Own” originator Robyn. Get out your hankie, sometimes you need to cry on the dance floor.

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Today in History: July 6, Althea Gibson wins Wimbledon

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Today is Saturday, July 6, the 188th day of 2024. There are 178 days left in the year.

Today’s Highlight in History:

On July 6, 1957, Althea Gibson became the first Black tennis player to win a Wimbledon singles title as she defeated fellow American Darlene Hard 6-3, 6-2.

Also on this date:

In 1483, England’s King Richard III was crowned in Westminster Abbey.

In 1777, during the American Revolution, British forces captured Fort Ticonderoga (ty-kahn-dur-OH’-gah).

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In 1885, French scientist Louis Pasteur tested an anti-rabies vaccine on 9-year-old Joseph Meister, who had been bitten by an infected dog; the boy did not develop rabies.

In 1933, the first All-Star baseball game was played at Chicago’s Comiskey Park; the American League defeated the National League 4-2 behind winning pitcher Lefty Gomez of the New York Yankees.

In 1942, Anne Frank, her parents and sister entered a “secret annex” in an Amsterdam building where they were later joined by four other people; they hid from Nazi occupiers for two years before being discovered and arrested.

In 1944, an estimated 168 people died in a fire that broke out during a performance in the main tent of the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus in Hartford, Connecticut.

In 1945, President Harry S. Truman signed an executive order establishing the Medal of Freedom.

In 1967, Nigerian forces invade the Republic of Biafra, sparking the Nigerian Civil War.

In 1988, 167 North Sea oil workers were killed when explosions and fires destroyed a drilling platform.

In 2013, an Asiana Airlines Boeing 777 from Seoul, South Korea, crashed while landing at San Francisco International Airport, killing three passengers and injuring 181.

In 2016, Philando Castile, a Black elementary school cafeteria worker, was killed during a traffic stop in the St. Paul suburb of Falcon Heights by Officer Jeronimo Yanez. (Yanez was later acquitted on a charge of second-degree manslaughter.)

In 2018, six followers of the Aum Shinrikyo doomsday cult were hanged along with its leader, Shoko Asahara; they had been convicted of crimes including a 1995 sarin gas attack that killed 13 people and made thousands of others sick on the Tokyo subway system.

In 2020, the Trump administration formally notified the United Nations of its withdrawal from the World Health Organization; President Donald Trump had criticized the WHO’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. (The pullout was later halted by President Joseph Biden’s administration.)

Today’s Birthdays:

The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, is 89.
Singer Gene Chandler (“Duke of Earl”) is 87.
Country singer Jeannie Seely is 84.
Actor Burt Ward (TV: “Batman”) is 79.
Former President George W. Bush is 78.
Actor-director Sylvester Stallone is 78.
Actor Geoffrey Rush is 73.
Retired MLB All-Star Willie Randolph is 70.
Former first daughter Susan Ford Bales is 67.
Actor-writer Jennifer Saunders (“Absolutely Fabulous”) is 66.
Actor Brian Posehn is 58.
Political reporter/moderator John Dickerson is 56.
Rapper Inspectah Deck (Wu-Tang Clan) is 54.
Rapper 50 Cent is 49.
Actors Tia and Tamera Mowry (MOHR’-ee) are 46.
Comedian-actor Kevin Hart is 45. Actor Eva (EH’-vuh) Green is 44.
San Diego Padres infielder Manny Machado is 32. NBA power forward Zion Williamson is 24.