WASHINGTON (AP) — As he prepares to accept the Republican nomination for the third time, Donald Trump has promised new efforts to expand his coalition — and, in particular, to win over more of the nonwhite voters who largely rejected him during the 2020 election.
But an AP analysis of two consecutive polls conducted in June by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that about 7 in 10 Black Americans have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Trump, as do about half of Hispanic Americans. While both groups do see Trump a little more favorably than when he left office in 2021, their opinion of him is still more negative than positive.
Any gains in support among Black or Hispanic Americans would be helpful for Trump, who won 35% of Hispanic voters and 8% of Black voters in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, and has struggled to grow his appeal beyond his base. He’s hoping, in part, to capitalize on frustration with his opponent, since President Joe Biden’s favorability among Black and Hispanic Americans has also fallen since 2021. It’s not clear, though, that Biden’s loss of enthusiasm among Black and Hispanic adults is helping Trump’s own standing among these groups.
Views of Trump are remarkably stable
Most Americans have a negative view of Trump, according to the AP-NORC analysis, which combined two polls conducted close together to yield a bigger sample size. About 6 in 10 U.S. adults have a very or somewhat unfavorable opinion of him, while about 4 in 10 have a favorable opinion. Overall views of Trump were similar in January and July 2021, too, in the months after Biden took office.
Views of Trump are generally very stable — even a felony conviction didn’t change how Americans see him. After he was convicted in May of 34 felony counts in New York for falsifying business documents, polls from the AP-NORC Center found that overall views of Trump barely budged. During the Trump presidency, Gallup polls found that Trump’s average job approval rating was 41%, and it never exceeded 50%.
About half of Hispanic adults view Trump negatively
Trump has said on the campaign trail that he has “great support” from Hispanic communities. But the AP analysis found that about half of Hispanic adults have an unfavorable view of Trump. About 4 in 10 Hispanic adults in the recent AP-NORC polls see Trump positively, up from about 3 in 10 in January 2021.
And even though Trump’s campaign advisers have said he has specific appeal among Hispanic men and younger Hispanic adults because of his business focus, that’s not what the poll analysis shows. Current views of Trump are similar among Hispanic men and women, older and younger Hispanic adults, and those with and without a college degree.
Biden, too, is facing a perception problem among this group. The new analysis found that about half of Hispanic adults have an unfavorable view of him, while about 4 in 10 have a favorable view. That’s a substantial decline from early 2021, when about 6 in 10 Hispanic Americans saw Biden positively.
Trump remains unpopular among Black adults
The Trump campaign has claimed that he could perform better among Black adults this year than in 2020, speculating that his legal woes could endear him to a community that has faced systematic discrimination by the criminal justice system, and that his immigration policies could also hold appeal.
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Black adults continue to have broadly negatively views of Trump, however: About 7 in 10 Black adults have an unfavorable view of Trump, a decrease of about 20 percentage points since early 2021. And although the Trump campaign has said Black men may be more receptive to his message, Black men and women have similar views of him.
Younger Black Americans might be a little more open to Trump’s appeals. About one-third of Black younger adults — those under 45 — see him positively, compared to around 1 in 10 Black adults who are 45 or older. But most younger Black adults view him unfavorably.
About 6 in 10 Black Americans, meanwhile, have a positive view of Biden — down from 8 in 10 when he took office.
The poll of 1,115 adults was conducted June 7-10, 2024 and the poll of 1,088 adults was conducted June 20-24, 2024. Both were conducted using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.
Associated Press writer Matt Brown in Dallas contributed to this report.
By JOEY CAPPELLETTI, ISABELLA VOLMERT, MARC LEVY and JONATHAN J. COOPER Associated Press
SAGINAW, Mich. (AP) — Considering her choices in this year’s rapidly approaching presidential election, Rochelle Jones thinks both major party candidates should step aside.
“They just need to get somebody that’s going to run this country right, that don’t have any health issues, that care about us people,” the 39-year-old culinary worker at Michigan State University said this week.
As President Joe Biden struggles to recover from a disastrous debate performance last month, he has argued that desires for him to leave the campaign are limited to his party’s “ elite.” But Jones’ sentiment reflects a more nuanced reality unfolding in some of the most politically competitive states, from here in Michigan to Pennsylvania and Nevada.
In interviews this week, many voters said they still support Biden. But they also expressed concern that a lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy could cause a lot of Democratic voters to stay home, handing the race to Republican Donald Trump. Some are concerned as well about the impact Biden’s continued candidacy would have on down-ballot races at a time when control of the U.S. House and Senate are also up for grabs.
Although Biden has gotten some of his strongest support in recent days from Black elected officials, many Black swing state voters said they were worried. Jones, who is Black, said she will probably vote for Biden when it comes down to it but feels he needs to address inflation, a top-of-mind issue for her.
The one unifying factor for most Democrats — elites and regulars alike — is the threat of a second Trump term. Biden has long argued that voters will reject Trump when faced with a one-on-one race, whatever their reservations about the incumbent.
Anxiety among rank-and-file voters comes as Biden fends off public and private pressure for him to relinquish the Democratic nomination and allow the party to field a different candidate to take on Trump in November. House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday said merely “it’s up to the president to decide” if he should stay in the race, Vermont Sen. Peter Welch called on Biden to withdraw from the election, becoming the first Senate Democrat to do so, and celebrity donor George Clooney also said Biden should not run.
“What I hear more so from people of color is, ‘if not him, what’s the alternative?’” said Craig Tatum, a pastor and prominent Black leader in Saginaw, Michigan. He said many people he speaks with found Biden’s performance troubling but remain committed to voting Democratic after seeing Trump’s presidency and character.
A demographic microcosm of Michigan at large, Saginaw County is the only Michigan bellwether to side with the winner in the last four presidential elections. The county’s namesake city, population 44,000, is about half Black, while surrounding areas are predominantly Republican.
Dr. Pamela Pugh, a Democratic candidate for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and current member of the State Board of Education, is pictured Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture. Pugh called Biden’s debate performance “beyond subpar,” and emphasized that Biden has “work to do in our communities” to earn another four years in office. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Christian Garrett talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure on him to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture in the aftermath of Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Garrett said he is unsure of how he is going to vote, believing Trump is vindictive and Biden is incompetent to continue leading. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Dr. Craig Tatum, pastor for New Life Baptist Church Ministries, talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure on him to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture in the aftermath of Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Tatum says many people he speaks with found Biden’s performance troubling but remain committed to voting Democratic after seeing Trump’s presidency and character. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Dr. Pamela Pugh, a Democratic candidate for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and current member of the State Board of Education, talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture. Pugh called Biden’s debate performance “beyond subpar,” and emphasized that Biden has “work to do in our communities” to earn another four years in office. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Ethan Williams talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure on him to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture in the aftermath of Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Williams, who turns 18 before the election in November, says “In terms of best chance of beating Trump, it would have to be Biden. But I don’t like that fact.” (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Ethan Williams talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure on him to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture in the aftermath of Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Williams, who turns 18 before the election in November, says “In terms of best chance of beating Trump, it would have to be Biden. But I don’t like that fact.” (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Dr. Craig Tatum, pastor for New Life Baptist Church Ministries, talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure on him to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture in the aftermath of Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Tatum says many people he speaks with found Biden’s performance troubling but remain committed to voting Democratic after seeing Trump’s presidency and character. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Dr. Pamela Pugh, a Democratic candidate for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and current member of the State Board of Education, is pictured, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture. Pugh called Biden’s debate performance “beyond subpar,” and emphasized that Biden has “work to do in our communities” to earn another four years in office. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Christian Garrett talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. President Joe Biden says the pressure on him to end his reelection campaign is coming from Democratic Party “elites.” But a sampling of voters and Democratic activists in several key swing states paints a far more complicated picture in the aftermath of Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Garrett said he is unsure of how he is going to vote, believing Trump is vindictive and Biden is incompetent to continue leading. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Dr. Pamela Pugh, a Democratic candidate for Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and current member of the State Board of Education, talks about voting in the November presidential election, Tuesday, July 9, 2024, in Saginaw, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
Trump had a slight lead over Biden in two national polls of voters conducted after the debate. One of the polls — conducted by SSRS for CNN — found that three-quarters of voters, including more than half of Democratic voters, said the party has a better chance of winning the presidency in November with a candidate other than Biden. Around 7 in 10 voters — and 45% of Democrats — said that.
Biden’s physical and mental ability is a reason to vote against him, according to the CNN/SSRS poll. And around 6 in 10 voters, including about one-quarter of Democrats, said that reelecting Biden as president this November would be a risky choice for the country rather than a safe one, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. That poll also found that Democrats were split on whether Biden should remain the nominee.
Ethan Williams, who teaches at a summer education program in Saginaw, will turn 18 before the November election. He said he and his friends who watched the debate were shocked by what they saw.
“We were not excited to say the least,” he said.
Williams said he found the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity, Trump’s felony convictions and the manifesto for a second Trump term known as Project 2025 to be particularly alarming. He plans to vote for Biden despite his age but may focus more on local and state races.
“In terms of best chance of beating Trump, it would have to be Biden,” he said. “But I don’t like that fact.”
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Pamela Pugh, a lifelong Saginaw resident running in the Democratic primary for a battleground congressional district in Michigan, demurred when asked whether Biden should be the Democratic nominee. She said down-ballot candidates like her will need to rely on themselves for voter turnout and to attract voters “who don’t believe that those at the top of the ticket represent them.”
Pugh called Biden’s debate performance “beyond subpar,” and emphasized that he has “work to do in our communities” to earn another four years in office.
Members of the influential Congressional Black Caucus and other Black activists in the Democratic Party have emerged as some of the most forceful backers of Biden remaining the party’s choice and staying on the ticket. In 2020’s Democratic primary, Black voters elevated Biden to victories in early primary states with overwhelming support in South Carolina, on Super Tuesday and in Midwestern states like Michigan.
As long as Black people and young people vote in strong numbers, Biden will win, said Brian Humphrey, a 62-year-old activist in Pennsylvania, who is Black. But he frets about younger voters — such as his granddaughters, one 18 and one 19 — who lack enthusiasm for a man four times their age.
“I’m a little worried right now, to be honest,” Humphrey said. “ You know, because of his age and things and my young grandkids telling me ‘he’s too old’ and ‘I’m not voting for that old man’, you know, trying to convince them that he’s the better of the two candidates.”
For Alyse Sobosan, a school counselor in Las Vegas, the turmoil over Biden’s debate performance is a distraction Democrats don’t need right now.
“It’s taking away from the campaign and the real issues,” she said. “That’s all anyone can talk about, so it makes sense to me if he steps down.”
Despite the ambivalence and anxiety among so many Democrats, Biden retains support ranging from enthusiastic to resigned.
James Johnson, a retired public school teacher in Pennsylvania, said Biden’s performance was “difficult to watch” but “did not in any way deter my determination to vote for him and see him elected as the next president.”
Teresa Hoover, a Democrat who went to hear Biden speak Sunday in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, agreed.
“He was the chosen candidate and I think at this point we’re just months away, it’s kind of hard to switch gears,” Hoover said.
For all the consternation, the debate did not change the fundamental reality that the candidates are both unpopular and Americans are unenthusiastic about their choices.
“I couldn’t bring myself to watch the debate because I’m struggling with both candidates,” said Christian Garrett, a 26-year-old manager of a summer education program in Saginaw.
Garrett said he is unsure of how he is going to vote, believing Trump is vindictive and Biden is incompetent to continue leading.
“So that’s why I feel that this case has become a joke, because we as Americans have sat by and watched this just unfold,” he said. “And it’s almost as if we don’t have the power when really the power lies in us.”
Cooper reported from Phoenix and Levy from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Associated Press writer Rio Yamat in Las Vegas contributed to this report.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House rejected a GOP effort Thursday to fine Attorney General Merrick Garland $10,000 a day until he turns over audio of President Joe Biden’s interview in his classified documents case as a handful of Republicans resisted taking an aggressive step against a sitting Cabinet official.
Even if the resolution — titled inherent contempt — had passed, it was unclear how the fine would be enforced as the dispute over the tape of Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur is now playing out in court.
The House voted 204-210, with four Republicans joining all Democrats, to halt a Republican resolution that would have imposed the fine, effectively rebuffing the latest effort by GOP lawmakers to assert its enforcement powers — weeks after Biden asserted executive privilege to block the release of the recording.
“This is not a decision that we have reached lightly but the actions of the attorney general cannot be ignored,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., the resolution’s lead sponsors, said during debate Wednesday. “No one is above the law.”
The House earlier this year made Garland the third attorney general in U.S. history to be held in contempt of Congress. But the Justice Department said Garland would not be prosecuted, citing the agency’s “longstanding position and uniform practice” to not prosecute officials who don’t comply with subpoenas because of a president’s claim of executive privilege.
Democrats blasted the GOP effort as another political stunt. Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., said that the resolution is unjustified in the case of Garland because he has complied with subpoena.
“Their frustration is that they can’t get their hands on an audio recording that they think they could turn into an RNC attack ad,” McGovern said in reference to the Republican National Committee. “When you start making a mockery of things like inherent contempt you diminish this institution.”
Garland himself has defended the Justice Department, saying officials have gone to extraordinary lengths to provide information to the committees about Hur’s classified documents investigation, including a transcript of Biden’s interview. However, Garland has said releasing the audio could jeopardize future sensitive investigations because witnesses might be less likely to cooperate if they know their interviews might become public.
Republicans have accused Biden of suppressing the recording because he’s afraid to have voters hear it during an election year. The White House and Democratic lawmakers, meanwhile, have slammed Republicans’ motives for pursuing contempt and dismissed their efforts to obtain the audio as purely political.
The congressional inquiry began with the release of Hur’s report in February, which found evidence that Biden willfully retained and shared highly classified information when he was a private citizen. Yet the special counsel concluded that criminal charges were not warranted.
Republicans, incensed by Hur’s decision, issued a subpoena for audio of his interviews with Biden during the spring. But the Justice Department turned over only some of the records, leaving out audio of the interview with the president.
Beyond the bitingly critical assessment of Biden’s handling of sensitive government records, Hur offered unflattering characterizations of the Democratic president’s memory in his report, sparking fresh questions about his competency and age that cut at voters’ most deep-seated concerns about the 81-year-old seeking a second term.
It’s just the type of event that many political watchers have said Biden needs to pull off successfully to turn back demands — including from within his own party — that he withdraw from his reelection battle against presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Biden has argued that he had a singularly bad night in Atlanta and that it wasn’t representative of his mental acuity. A strong performance Thursday could convince members of his party that he still has the ability both to win in November and to serve a second term. A weak effort — or stumbles similar to his debate performances — could make the calls for him to withdraw grow much louder.
Here are the details on what White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has referenced as Biden’s “big boy” news conference:
When is the news conference?
Biden is scheduled to take questions from the White House press corps at 6:30 p.m. ET Thursday. It had initially been slated for 5:30 p.m., but the White House moved the time to an hour later.
Where is Biden speaking?
Biden will be speaking from the Walter E. Washington Convention Center, a short distance from the White House, where many events of the ongoing NATO summit are being held.
What channel is carrying it?
The White House streams much of its live content. Given the attention on this event, television networks could also break away from programming to carry Biden’s remarks live once he starts speaking.
The Associated Press will offer a livestream at apnews.com.
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Who will be watching?
Probably a lot of people.
CNN reported that 51 million people watched the Atlanta debate, which was in primetime, while more than 8 million people tuned in to watch Biden’s ABC interview live. If networks break into their daily coverage or cable channels carry it live, that will guarantee a significant number of eyes on Biden.
Will Biden know the questions ahead of time?
Aside from some apparent exceptions — like incidents in which two Black radio hosts said Biden’s campaign sent them planned questions ahead of time — it’s not standard practice for the president to know precisely what will come up during interviews or news conferences.
His aides prepare him for a host of possibilities based off the headlines of the day, so they’re prepping him for the likelihood that journalists will want to ask about his fitness for office, the NATO summit or other topics.
How many questions will he take?
That’s not set in stone, and there’s not a ton of precedent.
Biden hasn’t held very many news conferences that aren’t tied to a foreign leader’s visit or trips abroad. Typically, those are what’s known in the business as a “2+2,” meaning two reporters from the U.S. and two foreign reporters ask questions.
What’s up next?
Biden returns to the campaign trail with a trip to Michigan Friday. He will also do an interview with NBC on Monday.
Associated Press writer Colleen Long in Washington contributed to this report.