NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices are dropping further, and stocks are rallying worldwide Tuesday on hopes that Israel’s war with Iran will not damage the global flow of crude, even if a tentative truce seemed to fray under fire in the morning.

The S&P 500 was 0.7% higher in early trading, following up on even bigger gains for stocks across Europe and Asia, after President Donald Trump said late Monday that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 289 points, or 0.7%, as of 9:31 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.9% higher.

The strongest action was again in the oil market, where a barrel of benchmark U.S. oil fell 4.9% to $65.12. Brent crude, the international standard, dropped 4.8% to $67.14.

The fear throughout the Israel-Iran conflict has been that it could squeeze the world’s supply of oil, which would pump up prices for gasoline and hurt the global economy. Iran is a major producer of crude, and it could also try to block the Strait of Hormuz off its coast, through which 20% of the world’s daily oil needs passes on ships.

But oil prices began falling sharply on Monday after Iran launched what appeared to be a limited retaliatory strike that did not target the production or movement of oil. They kept falling even after attacks continued past a deadline to stop hostilities early Tuesday. Trump would later said that the ceasefire was “in effect.”

Oil prices have dropped so much in the last two days that they’re below where they were before the fighting began nearly two weeks ago.

With the global oil market well supplied and the OPEC+ alliance of producing countries steadily increasing production, oil prices could be headed even lower as long as the ceasefire holds and a lasting peace solution can be found, said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

Falling oil prices should take some pressure off inflation, and that in turn could give the Federal Reserve more leeway to cut interest rates.

Wall Street loves lower rates because they can give the economy a boost by making it cheaper for U.S. households and businesses to borrow money to buy a car or build a factory. But they could also give inflation more fuel. That latter threat is why the Fed has been hesitant to cut rates this year after lowering them through the end of last year.

The Fed has been saying repeatedly that it wants to wait and see how much Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation before it commits to its next move.

Trump, though, has been pushing for more cuts to rates. And two of his appointees to the Fed have said in the last week that they may consider cutting rates as soon as the Fed’s next meeting next month.

Related Articles

Federal Reserve’s Bowman says rate cut should be on table in July

Compass files lawsuit against Zillow over private home listings policy

Why target-date funds are great IRA investments

With its stock in sharp decline, Trump’s media company will buy $400 million of its own shares

May home sales barely move as high mortgage rates, prices, weigh on housing market

Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains more cautious. He said again in prepared testimony set to be delivered to Congress later in the morning that the Fed is “well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”

Such mixed messages had Treasury yields swiveling up and down in the bond market, but not moving all that much ultimately. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged up to 4.35% from 4.34% late Monday.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, edged up to 3.85% from 3.84%.

In stock markets abroad, indexes rallied more than 1% everywhere from France to Germany to Japan following the announcement of the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Hong Kong’s jump of 2.1% and South Korea’s leap of 3% were two of the strongest moves.

By CHRIS RUGABER, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve will continue to wait and see how the economy evolves before deciding whether to reduce its key interest rate, Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday, a stance directly at odds with President Donald Trump’s calls for immediate cuts.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell said in prepared remarks he will deliver Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell is facing two days of what could be tough grilling on Capitol Hill, as Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to reduce borrowing costs. Powell has often received a positive reception before House and Senate committees that oversee the Fed, or at least muted criticism. Powell has also often cited his support in Congress as a bulwark against Trump’s attacks, but that support could wane under the president’s ongoing assaults.

Trump lashed out again early Tuesday, posting on his social media site: “I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come.”

In February, the last time Powell appeared before Congress, Rep. French Hill, the Arkansas Republican who chairs the financial services committee, urged Powell to ensure inflation returned to the Fed’s target of 2%, which typically requires keeping rates elevated.

Powell said in his written testimony that “ increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”

He said the bump to inflation from tariffs could be temporary, or it could lead to a more persistent bout of inflation.

The Fed’s “obligation,” Powell said, “is … to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.”

The Fed’s 19-member interest rate setting committee, led by the chair, decides whether to cut or raise borrowing costs. They typically increase rates to cool the economy to fight or prevent inflation, and lower rates when the economy is weak to boost borrowing and spending.

The Fed’s committee voted unanimously last week to keep its key rate unchanged, though the Fed also released forecasts of future rate cuts that revealed emerging divisions among the policymakers. Seven projected no rate cuts at all this year, two just one, while 10 forecast at least two reductions.

At a news conference last week, Powell suggested the Fed would monitor how the economy evolves over the summer in response to Trump’s tariffs and other policies before deciding whether to cut rates. His comments suggested a rate reduction wouldn’t occur until September.

Yet two high-profile members of the Fed’s governing board, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have since suggested the central bank could cut its rate as early as its next meeting in July. Both officials were appointed by Trump during his first term and Waller is often mentioned as a potential replacement for Powell when his term ends next May. Powell was also appointed by Trump in late 2017.

Trump is urging the Fed to cut rates to save the U.S. government money on its interest payments affixed to the vast national debt. Yet the Fed has long resisted considering the government’s financing costs when making interest rate decisions, preferring instead to focus on the health of the economy and inflation.

Related Articles

Federal Reserve’s Bowman says rate cut should be on table in July

Compass files lawsuit against Zillow over private home listings policy

Why target-date funds are great IRA investments

With its stock in sharp decline, Trump’s media company will buy $400 million of its own shares

May home sales barely move as high mortgage rates, prices, weigh on housing market

Waller, in a television interview Friday, said that lowering the government’s borrowing costs is “not our job” and added that it was up to Congress and the White House to reduce the budget deficit.

Trump meanwhile, on social media Tuesday repeated his claim that the European Central Bank has cut its key rate ten times, while the Fed has not cut at all. In fact, in the last 12 months the ECB has reduced its rate eight times and the Fed has done so three times, all late last year.

The Fed’s cuts last year lowered its rate to about 4.3%. Yet since then it has put reductions on pause out of concern that Trump’s tariffs could push up inflation. The president has slapped a 10% duty on all imports, along with an additional 30% levy on goods from China, 50% on steel and aluminum, and 25% on autos.

Yet inflation has steadily cooled this year despite widespread concerns among economists about the impact of tariffs. The consumer price index ticked up just 0.1% from April to May, the government said last week, a sign that price pressures are muted.

Prices for some goods rose last month, but the cost for many services such as air fares and hotels fell, offsetting any tariff impact. Compared with a year ago, prices rose 2.4% in May, up from 2.3% in April.

By SAM MEDNICK, JON GAMBRELL and MELANIE LIDMAN

BEERSHEBA, Israel (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was in effect Tuesday after the deal initially faltered and the American leader expressed deep frustration with both sides.

Israel had earlier accused Iran of launching missiles into its airspace after the truce was supposed to take effect and the Israeli finance minister vowed “Tehran will tremble.”

Iran’s military denied firing on Israel, state media reported — but explosions boomed and sirens sounded across northern Israel midmorning, and an Israeli military official said two Iranian missiles were intercepted.

Trump told reporters at the White House before departing for a NATO summit that in his view, both sides had violated the nascent agreement. He had particularly strong words for Israel, a close ally, while suggesting Iran may have fired on the country by mistake.

But later he said the deal was saved.

“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!” Trump said in his Truth Social post.

Indeed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said he held off on tougher strike against Iran after speaking to Trump.

The conflict, now in its 12th day, began with Israel targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, saying it could not allow Tehran to develop atomic weapons — and that it feared the Islamic Republic was close. Iran has long maintained that its program is peaceful.

Many worried the war might widen after the U.S. joined the attacks by dropping bunker-buster bombs over the weekend and Israel expanded the kinds of targets it was hitting.

But after Tehran launched a limited retaliatory strike on a U.S. military base in Qatar on Monday, Trump announced the ceasefire.

Israel accuses Iran of violating the truce. Iran denies that

The deal got off to a rocky start.

An Israeli military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with military regulations said Iran launched two missiles at Israel hours into the tenuous ceasefire. Both were intercepted, the official said.

Iranian state television reported that the military denied firing missiles after the start of the ceasefire — while accusing Israel of conducting strikes.

As Trump spoke to reporters at the White House before departing for the NATO summit, he expressed disappointment with both sides.

Iran “violated it but Israel violated it too,” Trump said. ”I’m not happy with Israel.”

Trump’s frustration was palpable, using an expletive to hammer home his point.

“We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f—- they’re doing,” he said.

Later, however, he announced that Israel had backed off its threat to attack Tehran and would turn its jets around.

Netanyahu’s office said Israel struck an Iranian radar in response to the Iranian missile attack early Tuesday — but held off on something bigger.

“Following President Trump’s conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel refrained from additional attacks,” Netanyahu’s office said.

Breakthrough announced after hostilities spread

Netanyahu said Israel had agreed to a bilateral ceasefire with Iran, in coordination with Trump, after the country achieved all of its war goals, including removing the threat of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that his country would not fire at Israel if it was not fired upon, but that a “final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.”

It’s unclear what role Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s leader, played in the talks. He said earlier on social media that he would not surrender.

Trump said Tuesday that he wasn’t seeking regime change in Iran, two days after first floating the idea.

“Regime change takes chaos,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One.

Related Articles

Trump says Israel-Iran ceasefire ‘is in effect’ and Israeli planes won’t attack anymore

Today in History: June 24, Sally Ride completes historic space shuttle mission

US strikes on Iran add to global travel disruptions and flight cancellations

Trump says Israel, Iran agree to ‘complete and total ceasefire’ to be phased in over 24 hours

A look at Al Udeid Air Base, the US military site that Iran attacked

Over the weekend, he mused on his social media account that “if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???”

The ceasefire came after hostilities spread further across the region.

Israel’s military said Iran launched 20 missiles toward Israel before the ceasefire began on Tuesday morning. Police said they damaged at least three densely packed residential buildings in the city of Beersheba. First responders said they retrieved four bodies from one building and were searching for more. Earlier, the Fire and Rescue service said five bodies were found before revising the number downward. At least 20 people were injured.

Outside, the shells of burned out cars littered the streets. Broken glass and rubble covered the area. Police said some people were injured while inside their apartments’ reinforced safe rooms, which are meant to withstand rockets but not direct hits from ballistic missiles.

Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a U.S. military base in Qatar, retaliating for earlier American bombing of its nuclear sites. The U.S. was warned by Iran in advance, and there were no casualties.

Drones attacked military bases in Iraq overnight, including some housing U.S. troops, the Iraqi army and a US military official said Tuesday.

A senior U.S. military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said U.S. forces had shot down drones attacking Ain al-Assad in the desert in western Iraq and at a base next to the Baghdad airport, while another one crashed.

No casualties were reported and no group claimed responsibility for the attacks in Iraq. Some Iran-backed Iraqi militias had previously threatened to target U.S. bases if the U.S. attacked Iran.

Conflict has killed hundreds

In Israel, at least 28 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded 3,458 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists.

The group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from Iranian unrest, said of those killed, it identified 387 civilians and 268 security force personnel.

The U.S. has evacuated some 250 American citizens and their immediate family members from Israel by government, military and charter flights that began over the weekend, a State Department official said.

There are roughly 700,000 American citizens, most of them dual U.S.-Israeli citizens, believed to be in Israel.

Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Lidman reported from Tel Aviv, Israel. Associated Press writers David Rising in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Josef Federman in Jerusalem, Amir Vahdat in Iran, Darlene Superville in Washington and Seung Min Kim in Noordwijkerhout, Netherlands, contributed to this report.

“As a state legislator who served during Andrew Cuomo’s governorship and witnessed its collapse up close, I know firsthand that sending Cuomo to City Hall will not solve New York City’s challenges. It will make them worse.”

Andrew Cuomo at a press briefing in August 2021, shortly before he resigned as governor. (Flickr/Governor Andrew Cuomo)

As a state legislator who served during Andrew Cuomo’s governorship and witnessed its collapse up close, I know firsthand that sending Cuomo to City Hall will not solve New York City’s challenges. It will make them worse, especially under a Trump presidency, when we need principled leadership more than ever.

Many New Yorkers have a vision of Cuomo as an experienced statesman who appeared on our television screens daily during the difficult early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, filling a leadership vacuum left by Trump’s chaos and incompetence. But that vision is a mirage.

We know now that, away from the cameras, Cuomo was severely mismanaging the crisis. He directed staff to undercount the death toll and issued regulations to send sick patients into nursing homes, dramatically increasing the risk that they would spread the disease. I remember well because I chaired the oversight hearing exposing his lies.

RELATED READING: Your Primary Guide to the Mayoral Candidates’ Plans

He also mismanaged the COVID Federal Emergency Rental Assistance program so badly that, a year into the pandemic, New York was the only state that hadn’t distributed a single dollar in rent assistance.

All the while, Cuomo was making government employees write his memoir and cashing a $5 million advance for a book deal. When he was investigated by the state’s ethics body for inappropriately using government resources, he sued investigators instead of taking accountability.

That self-dealing and disregard for the vulnerable wasn’t a bug—it was a key feature of Cuomo’s approach to leadership. His track record makes clear that his “experience” is rooted not in making government work better for working people, but in letting vulnerable New Yorkers down time and time again.

Take Cuomo’s history of workplace intimidation and sexual harassment. The U.S. Department of Justice and the state attorney general found him responsible for sexually harassing at least a dozen women. He’s since waged a vindictive legal campaign in an attempt to silence and scare the women who bravely came forward, including by subpoenaing one victim’s gynecological records. And he’s paid for those legal fees with $60 million of New Yorkers’ tax dollars.

Rent across this city is too high and homeownership has become an impossible dream for many. But during his tenure, Cuomo contributed to the city’s homelessness crisis by cutting millions in funding for a state rental-assistance voucher program. And despite begrudgingly signing laws to strengthen our state rent regulations—after having his hand forced by the legislature—he now says he would work to undermine renter protections.

By the way, those strengthened rent protections were only possible after Democratic candidates challenged and beat members of the Independent Democratic Conference—a group of senators who caucused with Republicans to keep them in power. Cuomo was actively involved in the formation of the IDC, encouraging it to maintain Republican leadership in the chamber to keep city Democrats out of power.

Our subway system is in desperate need of smart investment, but Cuomo oversaw the infamous Summer of Hell service collapse and defunded the MTA to bail out an upstate ski resort after a warm winter. Former MTA Chair Andy Byford, a global leader in mass transit, resigned after increasing tensions and interference by Cuomo in his work.

Mentally ill New Yorkers are forced to live on our streets, seek shelter in our subways, and cycle in and out of emergency rooms with no other place to go. But during his tenure, Cuomo worked to cut Medicaid and slashed hundreds of beds from the state psychiatric hospital system, exacerbating New York’s crisis of untreated mental illness and forcing cops to become de facto mental health first responders, a short-sighted decision that resulted in worse health and safety outcomes for New Yorkers.

Time after time, Cuomo failed to invest in safety net programs that support working families.

Take it as a sign: Cuomo isn’t interested in becoming mayor to make life easier for New Yorkers. He’s doing it to settle a political score and strong-arm others in government for the sake of his own power, even if it makes your life more expensive.

Now more than ever, New York City needs true, principled leadership, not a disgraced politician looking to make a comeback. Almost every other candidate in the June Democratic primary offers that leadership and has a track record to prove it. Rank them—not Cuomo—on your ballot.

Gustavo Rivera is a member of the New York State Senate, representing the 33rd District in the Bronx.

The post Opinion: New Yorkers Deserve True Leadership. That’s Not What Cuomo Offers. appeared first on City Limits.