Analysis: Trump griped about trial but did not use holiday to hit multiple swing states

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John T. Bennett | CQ-Roll Call (TNS)

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has complained for weeks that he cannot hit the campaign trail because he is stuck in a Manhattan courtroom. But he opted against using a holiday weekend break in the criminal hush money trial to visit multiple battleground states.

“I’d like to be out campaigning right now,” Trump told reporters outside the New York courtroom on May 21, before a Memorial Day weekend break. “But again, I’m gonna have to be in here almost five weeks in court. They have no case. There’s no crime.”

On May 9, Trump groused before the court gaveled in that day that he would have preferred to be in Georgia, Florida or Ohio talking to voters rather than in a courtroom he has called an “icebox.”

But he did not use the lengthy holiday weekend break to visit any of those states. Instead, on Thursday evening, he held a rally in the city’s Bronx borough — even though he lost Bronx County to now-President Joe Biden in 2020, 83.5 percent to 15.9 percent.

Though Trump and his team had to factor in the possibility the court could have met Thursday, he recently boasted that he could provide his own transportation to debates with Biden. He owns a Boeing 757 aircraft, which he used to hold a flyover before Sunday’s Coca Cola 600 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway in North Carolina, a state Trump won by less than 2 points but Biden’s team hopes to make competitive this year.

The Manhattan courtroom of Judge Juan Merchan has typically adjourned for the day around 4:30 p.m. That means it was not inconceivable, even if the trial had been in session Thursday, that Trump could have gotten to a rally in the Tar Heel State or Pennsylvania, a sure-fire swing state that is a short flight from any New York City area airport.

On Saturday, rather than heading to a swing state, Trump opted to address the Libertarian National Convention in Washington. But in a surreal scene, a politician who typically only addresses fans sporting “Make America Great Again” hats and t-shirts was booed, jeered and heckled.

Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, said in an email that “holding rallies in places like New York and New Jersey seems pointless. Trump is not going to win either of those states.”

Still, he said there was a strategic point to both events.

“I do think it’s fair to say that both rallies did generate a fair amount of earned media coverage, although that would be the case for swing state rallies, too,” Kondik said. “The appearance at the Libertarian convention seemed like something of a bust, although it was also in the middle of a long holiday weekend and probably didn’t get much attention anyway.”

Trump on Saturday evening declared — his arms out to his sides, as boos rained out from attendees — that “the Libertarian Party should nominate Donald Trump for president of the United States.” But he also appeared to respond to the surreal scene, responding to jeers at one point by saying, “Whoa. That’s nice. That’s nice.”

Many in the audience were not impressed nor ready to join the MAGA movement.

Video footage of the event captured attendees shouting things like, “Lock him up!” and “Donald Trump is a threat to democracy.” One person shouted at the former president, “You had your shot!” Others shouted profanity.

In turn, Trump was not impressed.

“Only if you want to win. Maybe you don’t want to win,” Trump said of libertarians casting ballots for him in November, before mocking their candidates’ recent general election performances. “Keep getting your 3 percent every four years.”

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Minnesota Democratic Gov. Tim Walz told CNN he thought Trump’s appearance at a libertarian convention was “ironic” because “no one has been more restrictive, whether it’s women’s reproductive rights or the right to vote.”

Some Trump allies, however, defended the move.

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, who was jeered at the convention, used a post on X to call the former president’s remarks “bold, courageous, and unprecedented. Those who stand for liberty should vote for Trump!”

Trump did, however, appear to get back on a more-MAGA course with his Charlotte Motor Speedway flyover and in-person appearance at the longest race of the stock car series’ season. He won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020, and is trying to beat back Biden’s attempts to snatch it this cycle.

Trump was back in the Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday as his defense team was up first in the trial’s closing argument phase. The 45th president is expected to be in court much of this week, as Biden heads back to battleground Pennsylvania on Wednesday.

The Scranton, Pa., native will be in Philadelphia, a favorite venue for a number of official and campaign stops during his 2020 campaign and term in office. Biden’s latest campaign stop will include Vice President Kamala Harris as well, and comes as an Emerson College poll of registered voters nationally conducted May 21-23 put him and Trump in a tie (50 percent-50 percent) in a hypothetical one-on-one race. When other candidates were added, the same survey showed Trump up 5 percentage points nationally, 44 percent to 39 percent.

In the Keystone State, a RealClearPolitics average of polls showed Trump up 2.3 percent as of Tuesday. Biden edged Trump in Pennsylvania in 2020, 50 percent to 48.8 percent.

©2024 CQ-Roll Call, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Visit cqrollcall.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Trump’s hush money trial verdict could come this week. Here’s what each outcome could mean for the election

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Julia Terruso | The Philadelphia Inquirer (TNS)

Twelve jurors in New York City are poised to make history when they reveal the verdict in the first criminal trial of a former U.S. president.

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The decision could influence some voters in a close presidential race in key swing states like Pennsylvania with six months until the election.

Closing arguments in former President Donald Trump’s hush money trial are slated for Tuesday with jury deliberations likely to start on Wednesday.

Prosecutors have alleged that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee engaged in a strategy to acquire and suppress unfavorable news stories, to impact the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Trump has pleaded not guilty to falsifying business records to cover up the purported scheme. It’s the first of Trump’s four criminal cases to go to trial, and likely the only one to be tried before the Nov. 5 election.

As the campaign barrels toward November, the hush money trial has done little to shift a tight race. That’s partly because polling shows few voters are paying attention to it.

In a recent YouGov/Yahoo News poll, just 16% of respondents said they’d been following the trial “very closely,” with one-third saying they were taking a mild interest in proceedings. More Americans said the trial made them feel “bored” or “angry” than interested.

That’s somewhat surprising given the salacious subject matter — a former adult film star detailing an alleged sexual encounter with a presidential candidate. But Trump has a long history of outrageous behavior, and if the facts of the case have not motivated voters en masse, a legal outcome of them might not either.

“I think even his most ardent supporters, given who he is, can believe everything they said he did,” GOP consultant Chris Nicholas said. “Whether it ends up being found to be felonious criminally is another story.”

Here’s what we’re watching for in the three scenarios that could play out.

If Donald Trump is found guilty

If the jury finds Trump guilty, he would be eligible for a prison sentence, an unprecedented scenario that the Secret Service is already taking preemptive steps to prepare for.

Each of the 34 felony falsification of business records charges that Trump is facing carries a sentence of up to four years in prison and a $5,000 fine. If Trump is found guilty, Judge Juan Merchan would have a lot of leeway. He could sentence Trump to probation, house arrest, or prison.

Given Trump, 77, has no prior criminal record, many legal experts say it’s unlikely the judge would impose a prison sentence. Trump would also likely appeal a guilty verdict, and any jail time would be stayed as the appeal continues through the court system, a process that could take months, if not years.

Still, the case against Trump for Democrats and Biden becomes easier to make with a guilty verdict. The Biden campaign is preparing to start referring to Trump as “convicted felon Donald Trump,” should he be found guilty.

And polling has indicated a guilty verdict could erode some support.

A March Politico and Ipsos survey found that a conviction could cost Trump more than one-third of independents. A February NBC News poll showed that a conviction in the New York trial could trigger a big swing from 18- to 34-year-old voters from Trump to Biden. And an ABC News/Ipsos survey from late April found that 20% of Trump supporters polled would “either reconsider their support (16%) or withdraw it (4%)” if he’s convicted.

There’s little sign that avid supporters have abandoned Trump over his legal troubles in states like Pennsylvania, but even smaller shifts could matter in a tight race.

Trump, meanwhile, will likely continue to run — and fundraise — off of the trial, no matter the outcome. He’s turned the indictments into unifying rallying calls to his supporters.

“Every time the radical left Democrats, Marxists, communists, and fascists indict me, I consider it a great badge of honor,” Trump said in his recent rally in Wildwood. “I am being indicted for you and never forget our enemies want to take my freedom because I will never let them take away your freedom. They want to silence me because I will never let them silence you.”

If Donald Trump is acquitted

As he did in Wildwood, Trump, for months, has categorized the case against him as a politically motivated prosecution. An acquittal would represent validation for Trump, his supporters, and his lineup of potential running mates, many of whom have packed the courtroom.

While he faces three other criminal trials, it’s unlikely any of those cases will conclude ahead of the general election, meaning an acquittal frees Trump from the possibility of running as a convicted candidate — or a candidate in jail.

That could help him among undecided voters with whom the outcome of the cases carries some weight.

Trump leads Biden in national polls and most swing states but in Pennsylvania his lead is narrow. His challenge has always been how to expand his base beyond a dedicated core. Running on an acquittal helps him make the case to moderates and independent voters.

It puts Biden’s Democratic surrogates in a more difficult position having spent months defending the trial against Trump.

And while an acquittal wouldn’t directly impact the other pending cases in Florida, Georgia, and Washington, it could shape public perception and influence potential juries in those states.

If the jury hangs

If the jury cannot reach a verdict, the judge will likely declare a mistrial. The Manhattan district attorney can then choose to retry the case with a new jury. But the runway to the election is shortening, making a retrial before November unlikely.

Trump would likely cast a mistrial as a win.

Whatever the outcome, how both candidates respond could carry almost as much weight as the decision. Biden has avoided commenting on the legal cases, but his campaign indicated he’ll make a statement on the verdict.

And Trump will be even more free to speak out with the trial behind him.

“The wild card, of course, is how does he respond?” Nicholas, the GOP consultant, said. “Once the verdict is in, he doesn’t have the gag order anymore, so he’s off to the races in terms of what he says.”

©2024 The Philadelphia Inquirer, LLC. Visit at inquirer.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Alito rejects calls to quit Supreme Court cases on Trump and Jan. 6 because of flag controversies

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Justice Samuel Alito is rejecting calls to step aside from Supreme Court cases involving former President Donald Trump and Jan. 6 defendants because of the controversy over flags that flew over his homes.

In letters to members of Congress on Wednesday, Alito said his wife was responsible for flying an upside-down flag over his home in 2021 and an “Appeal to Heaven” flag at his New Jersey beach house last year.

Neither incident merits his recusal, he wrote.

“I am therefore duty-bound to reject your recusal request,” he wrote.

The court is considering two major cases related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack by a mob of Trump supporters on the Capitol, including charges faced by the rioters and whether Trump has immunity from prosecution on election interference charges.

Alito has rejected calls from Democrats in the past to recuse on other issues.

The New York Times reported that an inverted American flag was seen at Alito’s home in Alexandria, Virginia, less than two weeks after the attack on the Capitol. The paper also reported that an “Appeal to Heaven” flag was flown outside of the justice’s beach home in New Jersey last summer. Both flags were carried by rioters who violently stormed the Capitol in January 2021 echoing Trump’s false claims of election fraud.

Alito said he was unaware that the upside-down flag was flying above his house until it was called to his attention. “As soon as I saw it, I asked my wife to take it down, but for several days, she refused,” he wrote in nearly identical letters to Democrats in the House and Senate.

Biden, Harris to launch Black voter outreach effort amid signs of diminished support

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By AAMER MADHANI (Associated Press)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are stepping up their reelection pitch to Black voters, a key part of their 2020 winning coalition that has shown signs of fraying.

They’ll launch a new Black voter outreach effort during a visit to the battleground state of Pennsylvania on Wednesday. The two will stop at Girard College, an independent boarding school in Philadelphia with a predominantly Black student body, and visit a small business to speak to members of the Black Chamber of Commerce.

The Philadelphia stops are the start of what the campaign is describing as an eight-figure, summerlong effort to engage Black student organizations, community groups and faith centers.

“We will continue to be aggressive, innovative, and thorough in our work to earn the support of the very voters who sent Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to the White House in 2020 and will do so again in 2024,” said Quentin Fulks, Biden’s principal deputy campaign manager.

The push comes at a moment when Biden has seen his solid support among Black voters show signs of erosion. Among Black adults, Biden’s approval has dropped from 94% when he started his term to just 55%, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll published in March.

The economy has been a particular thorn in Biden’s side since 2022, when inflation hit a 40-year high. But there have also been signs of discontent in the Black community more recently over Biden’s handling of the seven-month Israel-Hamas war.

Turning out Black voters could prove pivotal for Biden’s chances in what are expected to be among the most closely contested states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden beat his predecessor and 2024 challenger, former President Donald Trump, in all six states in 2020, but he could face a more difficult climb this year.

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Trump, for his part, has been offering himself as a better president for Black voters than Biden. At a rally last week in the Bronx, he railed against Biden on immigration and said “the biggest negative impact” of the influx of migrants in New York is “against our Black population and our Hispanic population who are losing their jobs, losing their housing, losing everything they can lose.”

The Biden campaign says it hopes to use the new engagement effort in part to remind Black voters of some of the Democratic administration’s achievements of his term.

The Black unemployment rate sits at 5.6%, according to the latest federal government data, compared to the average of about 8% from 2016 to 2020 and 11% from 2000 to 2015. Black household wealth has surged, and Biden’s effort to cancel billions in student loan debt has disproportionately impacted Black borrowers.

Biden also points to his appointment of Ketanji Brown Jackson as the first Black female justice on the U.S. Supreme Court and his pick of Harris as the first Black woman to serve as vice president.

The president’s visit to Philadelphia follows on a series of engagements with Black community members in recent weeks, including hosting plaintiffs in the 1954 Supreme Court decision that struck down institutionalized racial segregation in public schools, a commencement address at Morehouse College in Atlanta, and a virtual address to the Rev. Al Sharpton’s racial justice conference.