Yep, Texas Got Dummymandered

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Last summer, the Republican-controlled Texas Legislature gathered for an impromptu special legislative session to—on direct orders from President Donald Trump—redraw the state’s congressional maps to give Republicans an edge in five more seats in the U.S. House. These redraws were, by and large, centered on the principle that the historic vote shifts that Trump won in 2024 among heavily Hispanic South Texas were to be exploited—and recreated—in the 2026 midterms. This, the thinking went, would help insulate a GOP majority in the U.S. House and prevent Dems from taking back the chamber and holding Trump to account. 

It harkened back to the time that the Texas Legislature engaged in another mid-decaded congressional redistricting back in the early aughts, gutting Democratic seats across rural Texas, in order to manufacture a new majority in Congress. It worked then. 

But this latest mid-decade power grab was seen as a politically dicey maneuver at best. In hindsight, they were completely high on their own supply. 

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Just over a year later, congressional Republicans failed to flip a single one of the South Texas seats that they redrew for their own purported benefit—in Laredo and its surroundings, embattled Democrat Henry Cuellar trounced Republican opportunist Tano Tijerina by some 30 points or more. Vicente Gonzalez won his Rio Grande Valley district, centered around Brownsville, by easy double digits. Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz was trounced by the Tejano star-turned Democratic phenom Bobby Pulido. In 2024, Trump carried that 15th District by 18 points. 

In the new 35th Congressional District, which  was moved out of Austin and into San Antonio and its exurban surroundings, Democrat Johnny Garcia won in a walk. Trump won it by about 10 in 2024. 

The 9th Congressional District, which was previously a historically Black seat held by Trump antagonist Al Green, was redrawn into a GOP-favored district centered in Harris County’s more conservative outer reaches. Leticia Guterriez, an utterly unheralded Democrat who only yesterday put out press releases to the media announcing her unexpected competitiveness, defeated Republican Alex Mealer (who narrowly lost a bid for Harris County judge in 2024) with… you guessed it, utter ease. 

Up in North Texas, the 32nd Congressional District, a suburban Dallas county seat that Dems flipped back in 2018, was remade into a red district that extended from Dallas into deep East Texas. Trump won it by 18 in 2024. As of nearly midnight, a Democrat by the name of Dan Barrios was in a tight race there with right-wing Republican Jace Yarbrough. 

All that, to put it mildly, wasn’t supposed to happen. 

There appear to be even more casualties, too, well beyond the confines of the dummymandered maps.

Brandon Herrera, the edgelord extremist gun-fluencer who ran to represent the people of Uvalde, and a sprawling mass of southwest Texas, trailed Katy Padilla Stout by eight points late Tuesday.

The blue tsunami threatened containment even beyond those handful of congressional seats.

As of this writing, Republicans Pete Sessions, Steve Toth, Lance Gooden, and Jake Ellzey were all hoping to eke out wins in districts that were never supposed to be competitive in the least.

As the last votes continue to be tabulated, we don’t know the full scale of this massive upheaval just yet. But one thing is clear: Texas Republicans’ political hubris and subservience to Trump will have contributed to their losing national control of Congress in disastrous fashion. 

That, again, wasn’t supposed to happen. 

The post Yep, Texas Got Dummymandered appeared first on The Texas Observer.

Inundated by ICE and Rising Costs of Living, South Texas Returns Home to Democrats

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For months leading up to Tuesday night, polls and media coverage told of South Texas on its way to rebuke the GOP and the policies of President Donald Trump at the polls. But to what degree wasn’t understood until late into the evening, when it was clear that the region had corrected for its foray into the Republican party and then some.

All of the Rio Grande Valley’s four counties voted between roughly 60 and 70-plus percent for Texas Senate candidate James Talarico and Texas Governor candidate Gina Hinojosa, the latter of whom was raised in the Valley. The same margins more or less applied to the region’s Democrats in congressional and state races, margins too high for the GOP’s area candidates to recover from. 

Democratic U.S. House incumbent Vicente Gonzalez handily won against Eric Flores for Congressional District 34, after being targeted for pickup by the GOP. Congressman Henry Cuellar did the same against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, in his Laredo-Rio Grande Valley district. Bobby Pulido, combining an undeniable name recognition and centrist-populist platform, won easily in the 15th, where Monica De La Cruz, a Republican, has held office for two terms. Overall, these results shattered a would-be Republican gerrymander from last year.

Up in San Antonio, former Bexar County sheriff Johnny Garcia prevailed for Congress against Carlos De La Cruz, who is Monica De La Cruz’s brother. Katy Padilla Stout, an attorney and former school teacher, beat YouTuber and Second Amendment sycophant Brandon Herrera in CD-23. 

It didn’t end in the congressional districts, either. San Benito state Representative Janie Lopez lost her HD-37 seat to Oziel Ochoa, flipping the district back to blue. In Corpus Christi, Denise Villalobos, the Republican incumbent state rep, lost too. Democrat Kristian Carranza has won against Republican Jorge Borrego in HD-118, a district encompassing the southeastern suburbs of San Antonio. Republican incumbent Marc Lahood, of HD-121, lost to Democratic challenger Zack Dunn. Down in McAllen, Julio Salinas, a progressive, Bernie Sanders-backed Democrat, won against MAGA Republican Gary Groves in HD-41. (Republican party-switcher Ryan Guillen, it seems, will hold onto his Starr County state House seat.)

Early voting turnout in the Rio Grande Valley’s counties was the first tell that a sweep was coming, even if the direction wasn’t exactly known then. Cameron and Hidalgo counties, where most people in the Valley live, turned out in early vote at levels similar to their early vote in the 2024 presidential cycle.

Trump wasn’t on the ballot this time, of course, but the Republican Party and its South Texas hopefuls have become synonymous with the president and his mass deportation campaign. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has targeted this area specifically since Trump was elected a second time in January 2025, and it became, seconded only by cost of living, the most salient electoral issue of the region.

Since Trump’s inauguration, ICE has arrested over 50,000 people in the agency’s Harlingen and San Antonio sectors, called an “Area of Responsibility” (AOR) by the agency, according to arrest data acquired by the Data Deportation Project. Around 20,000 of those people were in ICE’s Harlingen AOR, which covers most of the Rio Grande Valley.

The people in South Texas have seen this as betrayal, whether by the GOP or by their neighbors who voted for them. This was an affront against the electorate that, for years, local, state, and national GOP factions have looked at as the greatest coalition to get—an untapped bastion of anti-establishment sentiment after years of disinvestment by the Democratic Party. That anger could fit somewhat inside of a playbook of the anti-government screeds from the Republican soapbox, and, briefly, it did work. Because the core of their messages over these last election cycles was simple: Democrats have abandoned you, but you now have a place to go. 

But for an electorate that votes based more on class and industry ties and, sometimes, solely for the personality–a legacy of the region’s boss rule politics and the strength of Blue Dog Democrat figures in the region–it is not so surprising to see what happened in South Texas on Tuesday night. Put another way, South Texans voted against policies that harmed them or their livelihoods, not necessarily for the Democratic Party, which campaigned on alleviating that pain. 

Years ago, local GOP boosters predicted a “red wave” would come to South Texas as disenchanted Democrats converted over. Between the 2022 and 2024 congressional and legislative races, this amounted to two U.S House seats–first Mayra Flores, who would have a nine-month stint in CD-34 after Filemon Vela left office before his term ended; then De La Cruz, who would win against Michelle Vallejo.

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In 2024, the GOP’s messaging tamed in some areas and rose in intensity in others, trying to match or balance against the party’s supreme guiding force in Donald Trump. And it may have been that closeness to Trump that brought out people to vote Republican in 2022 and 2024.

But that’s over now, and the reverse has happened: The Democratic Party successfully capitalized on South Texas being disenchanted with the GOP, capturing their anger with ICE, rising costs of living, and, in the case of its support of Talarico and Hinojosa, data centers and public schools stripped of state funding. 

Long a stronghold for a certain kind of Democrat, deep South Texas in particular snapped back into the blue column, with a historic ferocity.

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Texans Decide that Bo French Was the ‘Problem’

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Over the past couple weeks of voting, Texans woke up each day, looked at the coiffed mug of Railroad Commission GOP candidate Bo French, and—Tuesday night’s results revealed—chose electoral violence.

As of sometime after 10 p.m., French trailed Houston state Representative Jon Rosenthal for the statewide oil-and-gas regulator position by double digits. In French’s home county of Tarrant, where he previously led the county Republicans, he lagged by more than 15 points.

Around that same time, Governor Greg Abbott—long thought the most invincible of Republican statewides—conceded his race to state Representative Gina Hinojosa.

To be clear, French’s negative margin was hardly different from those of the GOP candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, land commissioner, or agriculture commissioner.

Nevertheless, it’s worth taking at least a moment to savor the fact that Texans chose not to elect the most openly fascist statewide candidate in recent memory.

The guy who posted the picture of happy UT-Austin kids and said their presence, by simple virtue of race, was a “problem” for Texas. The guy who said Native Americans should be deported, to somewhere. The guy who asked whether Jewish people or Muslims were more deserving of hate. The guy who said whatever insane thing he said about the “replacement” of Europeans in their “blood-won lands.”

The guy who, on Tuesday night, ate shit—so to speak.

It’s disorienting, in a sense, to see his margin so similar to those of other politicians whose policies would certainly hurt immigrants, the poor, the environment and so forth, but in the vein of considerably more familiar and less virulently racist politics. It feels somehow that his shellacking should have stood out more from the pack. 

On the other hand, well, who cares? A loss is a loss; a win is a win; and, tonight at least, God bless Texas y’all.

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‘Total Repudiation’: Dems Sweep Texas’ Top Battleground Tarrant County in Historic Rout

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In a stunning victory, Democrats swept nearly every race from the statewide level down to countywide offices in Tarrant County, an urban center that was considered a pivotal battleground county this cycle and that has historically been the largest Republican-controlled county in the country. 

Early vote totals showed a rout for Democrats early in the evening, with Senate candidate James Talarico pulling just shy of 60 percent, about a 22-point margin over Ken Paxton, along with every other statewide Democrat winning as well. Democratic County Judge candidate Alisa Simmons beat her opponent, County Judge Tim O’Hare, a controversial hardline Republican, by about 16 percent, signaling the first win for a Democrat at the county level since 1986.

“The results are a total repudiation of the Republican extremism that’s taken hold of Tarrant County Republican leadership recently,” Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor at the University of Houston, told the Texas Observer Tuesday night. “There were Republican voters who felt conservatives were taking it too far and Democrats who were happy to vote against the GOP, and that’s a toxic mix that’s going to make Republicans suffer.”

Ahead of the Election Day rout, Tarrant was expected to be highly competitive turf. Top statewide candidates, including Talarico and Paxston, along with Governor Greg Abbott, all made the rounds around Tarrant in the first days of early voting. 

Traditionally a GOP stronghold, flickers of a changing political dynamic in the North Texas county, which encompasses the cities of Fort Worth and Arlington and several booming suburbs, began when voters there favored Democrat Beto O’Rourke for U.S. Senate in 2018. The prospect of a possible purple-ish wave continued in 2020 when Joe Biden beat Donald Trump, albeit by a razor-thin margin. In 2024, Democrat Colin Allred won Tarrant over incumbent Ted Cruz by less than 2,000 votes (though Trump carried the county by 5 points) again stoking the idea that the tides may be turning. 

On election night, that swing to Democrats exploded beyond belief. “This moment of stunning Democratic wins has shifted Tarrant to more closely reflect the rest of the urban centers in Texas,” said Rottinghaus. 

In addition to countwide offices, Democrats appear likely to flip at least six GOP-held state House seats and at least one state senate seat based in Tarrant, along with some GOP congressional seats that include portions of the county. This is all part of a much larger statewide electoral for Democrats. 

Rottinghaus partly attributes this to population dynamics. An expanding racially and ethnically diverse electorate–including more educated and younger voters in Tarrant–and changes among suburban voters’ appetite –offers more opportunity for Democrats to win. The county is a “test” of whether that suburban political change is reaching local races, said Rottinghaus. 

Perhaps moreover, Tarrant County’s shift can be seen as a rebuke of its growing extremism. Increasingly an epicenter of the Christian nationalist movement Tarrant is home to the highly influential Mercy Culture, an evangelical church that encourages conservative Christians to run for office, as well as Patriot Mobile Action and the True Texas Project, two right-wing activist groups that have helped influence local races. The county is also home to Bo French, former Tarrant County GOP Chairman and candidate for Railroad Commissioner, whose overt racism and fascism even repelled Republican Fort Worth Mayor Mattie Parker, who publicly endorsed his opponent state Representative Jon Rosenthal. 

Texas Senate District 9

This political shift is no more evident than in the race for Texas Senate District 9, which pit right-wing hardliner Leigh Wambsganss against Democrat Taylor Rehmet to replace a seat vacated by Republican state Senator Kelly Hancock (who resigned to become acting comptroller) after serving 12 years in office. 

In a surprising upset earlier this year, Machinists union leader and Air Force veteran Rehmet bested Wambsganss, chief communications officer for Patriot Mobile, a Christian nationalist cell phone carrier, by a 14-point victory during a January special election, marking the first Democrat to win that seat since 1991. The victory–deemed a “wake up call” for Republicans by Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick—energized Democrats and worried the local GOP. 

The win earlier this year was a harbinger of what was to come on election night when Rehmet, severely outspent by his conservative opponent, held on to that victory.

Endorsed (and funded) by ultra conservative Patrick and backed by the True Texas Project, Wambsganss has been buoyed by powerful interests, seeing heavy funding from PACs including Texans For Lawsuit Reform and the Texas United for a Conservative Majority, backed by right-wing megadonors, West Texas oil billionaires Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks. 

Wambsganss claimed she’d focus on reducing property taxes, data center reform, and improving public safety—and undoubtedly would make extremism a guiding principle, with gun rights, anti-abortion, and anti-transgender platforms priority issues on her campaign website. Especially if the past is any indication: The right-wing activist helped drag the local district into school board culture wars in the name of “Judeo-Christian values” in 2021 with her Southlake Families PAC and in 2022 when Patriot Mobile poured hundreds of thousands of dollars to prop up conservative candidates that opposed lessons that promoted LGBTQ and racial inclusion. 

Amid the president’s unpopularity and her runoff loss earlier this year, Wambsganss–endorsed by Trump–recently sought to distance herself from her “ultra MAGA” label. 

Meanwhile, Rehmet has focused less on attacking Wambsganss and more so on talking affordability for the middle class and getting back to the kitchen table basics, vowing to reduce health care costs, increase state funding for teachers, help create child care subsidies, and lower property taxes. 

County Judge

In Tarrant County, a Democrat hasn’t served as county judge in 40 years. But on Tuesday evening, Democrat Alisa Simmons made history by prevailing over opponent County Judge Tim O’Hare, who conceded the race before 9 p.m. 

In 2022, Simmons, the longtime president of the Arlington NAACP, beat her Republican opponent in the most competitive precinct in the county. When the GOP sought to redistrict the county seats to gain a supermajority, redrawing her seat to nearly guarantee themselves a victory this year, the Precinct 2 commissioner instead opted to campaign to lead the Court. She told the Observer in July she’ll fix the county budget, target governmental inefficiencies, and “serve the people” sans the influence of political or religious ideology. 

O’Hare, former head of the county’s Republican Party and mayor of Farmers Branch, a suburb of Dallas, has steadily pulled the Tarrant County Commissioners Court further right during his tenure. When the seat was vacated by R. Glen Whitley after his 30 years on the Court, conservatives got behind O’Hare, who toppled the more moderate former Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price in 2022. Backed by funds from the deep-pocketed right-wing megadonors Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks, O’Hare’s time on the Court has been marked by a descent into culture wars and a hardline shift to the right. His brand of extremism attracted several lawsuits ranging from allegations of civil rights violations to attempts at gerrymandering.

As county judge, the incumbent helped lead the charge to suppress voting by cutting down nearly 100 polling locations, supported closing voting sites on college campuses, and launched an “election integrity unit” in response to the county’s vote for a Democratic presidential candidate. He stripped funding to non-profits that empower low-income, at-risk children of color and groups that publicly support LGBTQ rights and racial equality. 

District Attorney 

Republican District Attorney Phil Sorrells lost his spot in the face of a second challenge against Tiffany Burks. In 2022, Burks lost to Sorrells by about 6 points. 

A former prosecutor in the DA’s office from 1999 to 2021, Burks told the Observer in September she believes Sorrells is part of an “old boys network” that doesn’t truly represent the people. Burks wanted to more closely investigate the high number of Tarrant County jail deaths (which reached 80 since 2017) and hoped to create a new diversion unit within the office that helps those struggling with addiction and homelessness connect to services rather than keeping them stuck in the jail pipeline. She campaigned for more accountability and transparency in an office that she sees as lacking strong leadership. 

Tarrant saw the highest turnout in its history for a midterm election cycle. Democrats managed to sweep the county despite GOP efforts to thwart voting: The Republican-led Commissioners Court, which voted to cut down 92 polling locations—about a third of all sites—on Election Day, forcing voters to face longer wait times than usual on Tuesday. 

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