By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, Associated Press Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Consumer sentiment fell sharply in April, the fourth consecutive month of declines, as an intensifying trade war fueled anxiety over American jobs and rising inflation.

The University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer sentiment index, released Friday, fell 11% to 50.8, the lowest since the depths of the pandemic.

The decline was “pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey.

Customers shop refrigerators at a retail store in Glenview, Ill., Thursday, April 3, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

The share of respondents expecting unemployment to rise in the coming months increased for the fifth straight month and is now the highest since 2009, during the Great Recession.

And Americans now expect long-term inflation to reach 4.4%, up from 4.1% last month, a move that may be of particular concern for the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed pays close attention to inflation expectations, because they can become self-fulfilling. If people expect prices to rise, they often take steps that can push up prices, such as accelerating purchases or seeking higher wages.

Americans’ inflation expectations over the next five years are now at the highest since 1991, according to Capital Economics, a forecasting firm.

“Households appear to have come to the same conclusion as markets: the tariffs will do lasting damage to the US economy,” Harry Chambers, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said in an email.

Consumer sentiment remains sharply divided by party, with the index for Democrats at 34.1 and Republicans at 81.9. Yet both recorded steep drops in April, with sentiment among Republicans down from 87.4 last month.

Sentiment among independents plunged to 46.8 from 55.7, and is sharply below its post-election peak of 70.2.

Those inflation expectations have now jumped for several months. At a news conference last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations measure was an “outlier.” Market-based measures of inflation expectations, based on inflation-adjusted Treasury securities, have remained low, near the Fed’s 2% target.

Typically, falling sentiment suggests that Americans will cut back on spending, though in recent years consumers have at times kept spending despite the gloom. Yet the fact that worries about employment are rising could lead to more caution by consumers.

“This lack of labor market confidence lies in sharp contrast to the past several years, when robust spending was supported primarily by strong labor markets and incomes,” Hsu said.

Minnesota United at Toronto FC

When: 1:30 p.m. CT
Where: BMO Field, Toronto
Stream: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Radio: KSTP-AM, 1500
Weather: 45 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph south wind
Betting line: Toronto plus-180; draw plus-250; Minnesota plus-140

Form: MNUFC (4-1-2, 14 points) extended its unbeaten streak to six games with a 2-1 win over New York City last Sunday. Toronto (0-4-3, 3 points) is winless in seven consecutive games to start the season but had a 1-1 draw against defending Supporters Shield winner Inter Miami last weekend.

Recent matchups: Loons are 1-2-1 against Toronto in MLS but the teams haven’t played since a 1-1 draw in St. Paul in June 2023.

Flashback: The Loons’ last game in Ontario, in 2019, was also Francisco Calvo’s final game as captain. The Costa Rican was sent off with a red card and traded to Chicago Fire within a month. Calvo accused former manager Adrian Heath of throwing him in the trash; Ozzie Alonso became club captain.

Check-in: MNUFC2 improved to 3-0 with a 4-2 win over Sporting Kansas City II on Wednesday. The Loons’ developmental team’s offense has been led by two second-round draft picks — Logan Dorsey (three goals) and Kieran Chandler (three assists) — and an undrafted former college player, goalkeeper Wessel Speel.

News: The MLS Board of Governors said Thursday any potential schedule move to a fall-to-spring season would not take effect until after the 2027 season at the earliest.

Absences: MF Hassani Dotson (knee), MF Owen Gene (ankle) and CB Kipp Keller (hamstring) are out.

Projected XI: In a 5-3-2 formation, FW Tani Oluwaseyi, FW Kelvin Yeboah; MF Joaquin Pereyra, MF Robin Lod, MF Wil Trapp; LWB Joseph Rosales, CB Nicholas Romero, CB Michael Boxall, CB Jefferson Diaz, RWB Bongi Hlongwane; GK Dayne St. Clair.

Storyline: It’s a homecoming for Oluwaseyi and St. Clair. Both Loons standouts grew up in the Toronto area but have not played an MLS match at BMO Field since joining MNUFC.

Scouting report: Toronto has struggled to score goals — three in the past five games — but Italian midfielder Federico Bernardeschi remains a threat. The high-priced former Juventus player leads the Reds with two goals and two assist this season.

Stats: MNUFC are dead last in possession in MLS (34%) but lead the league in shots on counter attacks (10) so far this season, according to Sportec.

Prediction: Toronto has allowed the third-most goals (13) in MLS this season, and the Loons’ attacking trio of Yeboah, Oluwaseyi and Pereyra have been hot. MNUFC wins 2-0.

By JENNIFER McDERMOTT and SIBI ARASU, Associated Press

Many of the world’s largest shipping nations decided on Friday to impose a minimum tax of $100 for every ton of carbon dioxide emitted by ships, if their planet-heating emissions are not already accounted for, making it effectively the first global tax on greenhouse gas emissions.

The fee will be charged if nations have not contributed enough to the International Maritime Organization’s net zero fund and their ships are not meeting their compliance target.

Members of the International Maritime Organization — with the United States noticeably absent — reached the agreement which will become effective by 2028. The group also set a marine fuel standard to phase in cleaner fuels.

Emissions from shipping have increased over the last decade— to about 3% of the global total, according to the United Nations — as vessels have gotten bigger, delivering more cargo per trip and using immense amounts of fuel.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez said at the closing that the group forged a meaningful consensus in the face of complex challenges to combat climate change and modernize shipping.

Some environmentalists present at the meeting called the emission taxes a “historic decision” but also said more could have been achieved. The tax doesn’t capture all emissions or drive enough emission reductions and it won’t raise enough revenue to help developing countries transition to greener shipping, said Emma Fenton, senior director for climate diplomacy at a U.K.-based climate change nonprofit, Opportunity Green.

“The IMO has made an historic decision, yet ultimately one that fails climate vulnerable countries and falls short of both the ambition the climate crisis demands and that member states committed to, just two years ago,” they said.

Other groups welcomed the IMO’s decisions as a step in the right direction.

“By approving a global fuel standard and greenhouse gas pricing mechanism, the International Maritime Organization took a crucial step to reduce climate impacts from shipping. Member states must now deliver on strengthening the fuel standard overtime to more effectively incentivize the sector’s adoption of zero and near-zero fuels, and to ensure a just and equitable energy transition. The future of global trade, our planet and maritime communities depend on it,” said Natacha Stamatiou of the Environmental Defense Fund.

The previous day, delegates approved a proposal to designate an emissions control area in the North-East Atlantic Ocean. Ships traveling through the area will have to abide by more stringent controls on fuels and their engines to reduce pollution.

The IMO, which regulates international shipping, has set a target for the sector to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by about 2050 and has committed to promoting fuels with zero or near-zero emissions.

The Marine Environment Protection Committee, which is part of the IMO, has been in meetings all week in London and finalized its decision Friday.

One major issue during the meetings was the way a tax would be charged. More than 60 countries entered the negotiations pushing for a simple tax charged per metric ton of emissions. They were led by Pacific island nations, whose very existence is threatened by climate change.

Other countries with sizable maritime fleets — notably China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and South Africa — wanted a credit trading model instead of a fixed levy. Finally, a compromise between the two models was reached.

The United States didn’t participate in the negotiations in London, instead urging other governments to oppose the greenhouse gas emission measures under consideration. The Trump administration said it would reject any efforts to impose economic measures against its ships based on emissions or fuel choice, which it said would burden the sector and drive inflation. It threatened possible reciprocal measures if any fees are charged.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

Airfare prices change constantly, fueling plenty of myths about the best time to book and how to find the lowest fares. Scott Keyes, founder of Going — a travel app formerly known as Scott’s Cheap Flights that sends out airfare deal alerts — has heard them all.

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“You’ve heard the advice to book on Tuesday at 1 p.m., or Saturday at midnight, or exactly 63 days before,” Keyes said in an episode of NerdWallet’s Smart Travel podcast. “The fact that there are so many different rules about when you’re supposed to book should kind of be the tip-off that it’s a little bit of a myth.”

While there is no golden rule, Keyes does have six tips and takeaways from over a decade as a professional flight deal finder.

1. There is no ‘best day’ to book a flight

Keyes says the best time to book a flight isn’t so much tied to a specific time or day, but rather how many months in advance you make your purchase. He recommends booking within what he calls the “Goldilocks window.”

“It’s not too early, not too late, but just right in the middle,” he said, describing this ideal booking time.

Here’s the Goldilocks window for each type of flight:

Domestic flights (off-peak): 1 to 3 months in advance.
Domestic flights (peak seasons like summer or Christmas): 3 to 6 months in advance.
International flights (off-peak): 2 to 8 months in advance.
International flights (peak seasons): 4 to 10 months in advance.

2. Incognito mode won’t help you find cheaper flights

Some people believe that airlines are “watching” your computer usage by way of cookies, which track how you interact with websites, and using this data to charge higher fares to those who search repeatedly for flights.

Keyes says these theories don’t make sense though — especially given his line of work.

“If airfare prices changed based on repeated searches, we’d see it because we track millions of airfares every single day,” he said. “If somebody was going to see higher flight prices impacted by repeated searches, it would be us. Yet we don’t.”

3. Don’t count out budget airlines

Budget airlines like Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines are known for charging fees for carry-on bags and other services. But their ultra-low base fares could help some travelers spend less.

“If you’re traveling with just a backpack, budget airlines can absolutely save you money,” he said. “I’ve looked at flights from my home airport in Portland down to Las Vegas, and the Spirit flight cost $25 each way when the next-closest Alaska Airlines flight costs $130.”

And you might be surprised at the convenient routing options on budget airlines, too.

“Especially to destinations like Las Vegas and Orlando, budget airlines actually have the most nonstop flights,” Keyes said. “If you’re flying from say, Minneapolis or Des Moines, Iowa, you actually might be able to get a nonstop flight on a budget airline.”

Just be aware of the extra fees for things that are often included in other airlines, such as carry-on bags and even an in-flight beverage. Once you add up those costs, the total price can sometimes be more expensive than full-service airlines.

4. Know your back-up options

Avoiding layovers when possible (especially if it involves saving money) can reduce travel time and also mitigate the risk of snowballing delays.

If you book a flight with a layover, find out what your alternative flight options might be if a delay makes you miss your connecting flights. You should aim to fly with airlines that have multiple flights a day to your destination from the connecting airport.

“If you’ve got a flight on Spirit and that flight gets canceled, it might be a while until there’s the next available Spirit flight to your destination,” Keyes said. “They don’t have partnerships with other airlines to put you on a different carrier, so you could actually be waiting sometimes days to get a replacement flight. That’s something that usually doesn’t happen if you’re on Delta Air Lines or United Airlines.”

(Photo courtesy of Scott Keyes)

5. Don’t hesitate when you find a great fare

One thing Keyes has learned over the years: Airfare deals don’t stick around for long. It’s important to act fast, he notes, or they can slip away.

“I once found a deal to India for $212 round trip,” he said. “My heart skipped a beat. I had sweaty palms. I was so excited. But instead of booking it immediately, I spent a couple of hours figuring out my itinerary. When I went to book, I missed it by 30 seconds.”

The lesson?

“Book first, ask questions later,” he said.

In the U.S., federal regulations make it easier to get a refund if you change your mind after booking. Under the 24-hour rule, airlines are required to refund your money to the original form of payment if you cancel within 24 hours of purchasing that airfare.

6. Book to prioritize price

“Most people say they want cheap flights, but they go about finding them in the exact opposite way,” Keyes said. Rather than looking at prices first, he added, they look at destinations and dates first.

He suggests flipping the process:

Start with price: Identify the cheapest flights available.
Pick your destination: Choose from the available deals.
Select your dates: Work within the cheapest available timeframes.

“What I tell folks is like, ‘Look, if cheap flights are a priority, make them the priority,’” he said. “By setting price as the last priority, we end up with some pretty expensive flights.”

Sally French writes for NerdWallet. Email: sfrench@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @SAFmedia.

The article Professional Deal Finder Reveals Truth About Cheap Airfare originally appeared on NerdWallet.