By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Get ready for several years of even more record-breaking heat that pushes Earth to more deadly, fiery and uncomfortable extremes, two of the world’s top weather agencies forecast.

There’s an 80% chance the world will break another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it’s even more probable that the world will again exceed the international temperature threshold set 10 years ago, according to a five-year forecast released Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office.

“Higher global mean temperatures may sound abstract, but it translates in real life to a higher chance of extreme weather: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the calculations but said they made sense. “So higher global mean temperatures translates to more lives lost.”

With every tenth of a degree the world warms from human-caused climate change “we will experience higher frequency and more extreme events (particularly heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and human-reinforced hurricanes/typhoons),” emailed Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. He was not part of the research.

And for the first time there’s a chance — albeit slight — that before the end of the decade, the world’s annual temperature will shoot past the Paris climate accord goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and hit a more alarming 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) of heating since the mid-1800s, the two agencies said.

There’s an 86% chance that one of the next five years will pass 1.5 degrees and a 70% chance that the five years as a whole will average more than that global milestone, they figured.

The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists.

Ten years ago, the same teams figured there was a similar remote chance — about 1% — that one of the upcoming years would exceed that critical 1.5 degree threshold and then it happened last year. This year, a 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial year enters the equation in a similar manner, something UK Met Office longer term predictions chief Adam Scaife and science scientist Leon Hermanson called “shocking.”

“It’s not something anyone wants to see, but that’s what the science is telling us,” Hermanson said. Two degrees of warming is the secondary threshold, the one considered less likely to break, set by the 2015 Paris agreement.

Technically, even though 2024 was 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, the Paris climate agreement’s threshold is for a 20-year time period, so it has not been exceeded. Factoring in the past 10 years and forecasting the next 10 years, the world is now probably about 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter since the mid 1800s, World Meteorological Organization climate services director Chris Hewitt estimated.

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“With the next five years forecast to be more than 1.5C warmer than preindustrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of severe heat waves, bringing more deaths and severe health impacts unless people can be better protected from the effects of heat. Also we can expect more severe wildfires as the hotter atmosphere dries out the landscape,” said Richard Betts, head of climate impacts research at the UK Met Office and a professor at the University of Exeter.

Ice in the Arctic — which will continue to warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world — will melt and seas will rise faster, Hewitt said.

What tends to happen is that global temperatures rise like riding on an escalator, with temporary and natural El Nino weather cycles acting like jumps up or down on that escalator, scientists said. But lately, after each jump from an El Nino, which adds warming to the globe, the planet doesn’t go back down much, if at all.

“Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson.

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal judge has refused to throw out a lawsuit that accuses billionaire Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency of illegally accessing government data systems, canceling government contracts and firing federal employees.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan ruled Tuesday that 14 states can proceed with their claims against Musk and DOGE. The states, through their attorneys general, sued in February over the defendants’ alleged constitutional violations.

The states had asked Chutkan to temporarily block DOGE from accessing any data systems or terminating any federal employees. But the judge denied that request on Feb. 18. She found that there were legitimate questions about Musk’s authority but said there weren’t grounds to justify a temporary restraining order.

Chutkan agreed Tuesday to dismiss President Donald Trump as a defendant in the lawsuit, but she refused to dismiss the claims against Musk and DOGE.

FILE – Elon Musk speaks at a town hall March 30, 2025, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps, File)

The plaintiffs’ attorneys argued that Musk’s actions, including those carried out at his direction by DOGE personnel, are unconstitutional because he hasn’t been legally appointed.

Chutkan wrote: “The Constitution does not permit the Executive to commandeer the entire appointments power by unilaterally creating a federal agency pursuant to Executive Order and insulating its principal officer from the Constitution as an ‘advisor’ in name only. This is precisely what Plaintiffs claim the Executive has done.”

The Trump administration has maintained that layoffs are coming from agency heads and insisted that Musk hasn’t been running DOGE’s day-to-day operations.

Chutkan, who was nominated to the bench by President Barack Obama, previously oversaw the now-dismissed criminal election interference case against Trump in Washington.

By CHRIS MEGERIAN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Elon Musk is criticizing the centerpiece of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda, a significant fracture in a partnership that was forged during last year’s campaign and was poised to reshape American politics and the federal government.

The billionaire entrepreneur, who supported Trump’s candidacy with at least $250 million and has worked for his administration as a senior adviser, said he was “disappointed” by what the president calls his “big beautiful bill.”

The legislation includes a mix of tax cuts and enhanced immigration enforcement. While speaking to CBS, Musk described it as a “massive spending bill” that increases the federal deficit and “undermines the work” of his Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE.

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“I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful,” Musk said. “But I don’t know if it could be both.”

His CBS interview came out Tuesday night. White House officials did not immediately respond to questions. Republicans recently pushed the legislation through the House and are debating it in the Senate.

Musk’s comments come as he steps back from his government work, rededicating himself to companies like the electric automaker Tesla and rocket manufacturer SpaceX. He’s also said he’ll reduce his political spending, because “I think I’ve done enough.”

At times, he’s seemed chastened by his experience working in government. Although he hoped that DOGE would generate $1 trillion in spending cuts, he’s fallen far short of that target.

“The federal bureaucracy situation is much worse than I realized,” he told The Washington Post. “I thought there were problems, but it sure is an uphill battle trying to improve things in D.C., to say the least.”

Musk had previously been effusive about the opportunity to reshape Washington. He wore campaign hats in the White House, held his own campaign rallies and talked about excessive spending as an existential crisis.

He was also effusive in his praise of Trump.

“The more I’ve gotten to know President Trump, the more I like the guy,” Musk said at one point. “Frankly, I love him.”

Trump repaid the favor, describing Musk as “a truly great American.” When Tesla faced declining sales, he turned the White House driveway into a makeshift showroom to illustrate his support.

It’s unclear what, if any, impact that Musk’s comments about the bill would have on the legislative debate. During the transition period, he helped whip up opposition to a spending measure as the country stood on the brink of a federal government shutdown.

But Trump remains the dominant figure within the Republican Party, and many lawmakers have been unwilling to cross the president when he applies pressure for his agenda.

By JAMES POLLARD, Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) — Perhaps the outlook developed when COVID-19’s uncontrolled spread upended nearly every facet of their young lives. Maybe it was hardened as the worst of climate change’s harms grew likelier despite scientists’ stark warnings. It’s possible the attitude even formed from early memories of the financial insecurity brought upon their families by the Great Recession.

Whatever the reason, it’s well documented that Gen Z tends to lack trust in the major institutions that previous generations expected to safeguard their futures.

Around 1 in 10 adults under 30 had “a great deal of confidence” in the people running the Supreme Court in an AP-NORC poll from June 2024. A May 2023 survey found 44% of adults under 30 had “hardly any confidence at all” in those running banks and financial institutions — about twice the share of adults ages 60 and older, who felt the same way.

The gap extends to other behaviors. An AP-NORC poll conducted in March found that only about one-quarter of adults under 30 volunteered their time to charity in the past year or provided non-financial support to people in their community, compared to 36% of those over 60. Younger adults were also more likely than older adults to say they or their household donated $0 to charity, according to the poll.

The philanthropic sector is working to reverse any disillusionment by empowering Gen Z to make the structural change they so often seek. Born out of the idea that young people distrust institutions because they don’t feel served or included, several initiatives are underway with hopes that more responsive institutions will be seen as more legitimate ones. Perhaps the most optimistic believe their energy can bring alternatives to the status quo to life — if only given meaningful roles.

“Young people — we’re not just victims of these systems. We have agency and we have power,” said Summer Dean, 27, who breaks down complex environmental topics into actionable information for the 116,000 followers of her Instagram, @climatediva.

“If you want to inspire us, actually include us in solid structures of your organization,” she added.

Summer Dean, 27, works inside a coffee shop, Friday, May 23, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Heather Khalifa)

DoSomething doesn’t want to do just anything

When DeNora Getachew became DoSomething CEO in April 2021 during the pandemic, she acknowledged the platform largely provided “slacktivist” opportunities — or low-effort ways to support social causes online. DoSomething was not meeting the desires of its 13- to 25-year-old audience for more lasting community change.

The nonprofit was founded in 1993 to boost youth volunteering. But Getachew said the “new DoSomething” sees volunteerism as a “step on the ladder” but not “the top rung.”

She pointed to a new program called Talking Trash that does more than just encourage volunteers to collect and recycle plastic bottles. Through educational campaigns and microgrants for select projects, DoSomething prompts members to think more deeply about improving their communities’ overall waste management infrastructure.

“We’re their cheerleader,” she said. “We’re the person who has their back and are helping them figure out how they tap into that, at least initial, sense of curiosity about what they can do.”

Katelyn Knox, a 25-year-old former police officer, is part of the inaugural cohort of DoSomething “binfluencers” who received $250 and peer support to improve local recycling systems. After moving from Florida to Los Angeles, Knox noticed many neighbors did not understand the guidelines for what is actually recyclable. Even if they did, she found that recycling bins were scarce.

She decided to design an app that identifies which recyclables go where and brings door-to-door recycling services to her community.

“It is very hard to make change. You have to convince so many people to make this change — especially people who are older than you,” Knox said. “It’s not so scary knowing that other people are with me and doing it right next to me in their own cities.”

DoSomething brought together Knox and Dean to record a video educating college students about broken recycling systems.

Dean, the environmental storyteller, said she’s seen many young folks respond to overwhelming structural issues in one of two ways: accepting that they’ll “just have to learn to survive” or “realizing that we can just really imagine a new system of being and governing.”

“A lot of us feel powerless at some point through all of this because there’s many times where these systems make us feel like there is nothing we can do,” she said. “I always just tell people to hold onto these heavy emotions because that is what moves you to take action and not feel so much like a victim.”

One Silicon Valley entrepreneur’s $10 million call

LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman launched The Trust in American Institutions Challenge last December with philanthropic accelerator Lever for Change. The $10 million open call will scale local solutions to restore public confidence in anything from education and government to media and medicine.

Hoffman, a 57-year-old Democratic megadonor, finds that philanthropy offers more opportunities “for beginning the trust stuff.” He said that’s because there are no conflicting interests other than the mission.

FILE – LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman sits in the lobby of LinkedIn’s Mountain View, Calif., headquarters on Tuesday, May 7, 2013. (AP Photo/Noah Berger, File)

The challenge is not focused solely on youth. Hoffman said that “just about everybody” across the political spectrum can recognize society’s trust issues. As he sees it, the problem isn’t that institutions don’t work for young people. They do work, according to Hoffman, and “part of being young is learning that.” The idea, he added, “is to reconnect and revivify.”

“We’re like fish in water. We don’t realize how important these institutions are to our ongoing environment,” Hoffman said. “Revitalizing them is an important part of a society that works.”

A semiquincentennial opportunity

Another effort is connecting youth representatives with decision-makers to help civic institutions reach new generations ahead of the United States’ 250th anniversary.

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Recognizing that today’s teens and young adults are the ones who will inherit American democracy, Youth250 is passing the microphone to young people as the country reflects on its past and looks ahead to its future. Advisors are working with museums, historic sites and libraries to center Gen Z’s perspectives.

Dillon St. Bernard, the 25-year-old Youth250 documentary series director, said the campaign “is about turning representation into power.”

He emphasized the need to build intergenerational coalitions. Today’s challenges — climate change, democracy and racial justice — haven’t been solved by their predecessors, according to St. Bernard.

“We as a generation have known nothing but a house on fire and want to see what it would look like to stop that spread,” he said.

Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. For all of AP’s philanthropy coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/philanthropy.