There is one surefire way to know when someone is trying to pull one over on you: If they’re promising something for nothing — whether it’s a tax cut that pays for itself or an investment strategy that offers a higher return and lower risk — then you need to be on your guard.

Jason Furman, who chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Barack Obama and now teaches at Harvard, recently published a thoughtful critique of former President Joe Biden’s economic policy. He identifies many policy errors, as well as a few things that went right. But his main point is a basic principle of economic policymaking: All choices come with tradeoffs.

The Biden administration believed it could spend trillions of dollars without overheating the economy, and it got inflation. It tried to revive the semiconductor industry with huge subsidies, then required any recipients to provide child care, adhere to crippling regulations and hire only unionized labor. It bought into the promise that the US could build a green economy to save the planet without anyone having to pay more or make do with less. In the end, the economy recovered after the pandemic, but real wages barely improved, inflation risk returned, and the US is deeper in debt.

President Donald Trump’s administration is already making some of the same mistakes. It says tariffs won’t cost consumers or domestic producers — in the long run. It argues that if the government reduced regulations and operated more efficiently, there would be enough economic growth to pay for tax cuts and reduce worries about the debt.

None of this is likely. Yes, the government needs to cut waste and excessive regulations, and some tax cuts will boost growth. But even in the best-case scenario, the added growth wouldn’t be enough to make them pay for themselves, let alone cover the unfunded entitlements coming due it the next decade.

Of course, politicians promising something for nothing is hardly a novel phenomenon. And it is not just in politics; almost every financial scam or bubble is rooted in the myth that higher returns can be achieved with less risk. But the belief in a free lunch has become more common lately.

Two pieces of conventional wisdom that emerged after 2008 fed this mass delusion, both of them are wrong. One is that it is better to provide too much economic stimulus rather than too little. The other is that worries about inflation and higher interest rates were things of the past.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, signed in 2009, cost more than $800 billion, but some economists argued at the time (and still believe) that it should have been bigger, saying it helped make the recovery from the 2008 recession needlessly slow. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve went into full-on stimulus mode for years after the crisis, continuing to expand its balance sheet. With both the added debt and the expansionary monetary policy, higher inflation and rates were expected — but they never came about.

What policymakers took away from this experience was that no amount of spending or expansionary monetary policy would increase interest rates or inflation. Ergo, they could stimulate as much as they wanted, in just about any way they wanted, without cost. As long as interest rates are near zero, this is kind of true; after all, it is nearly costless to run up debt, and it appears to pay off so long as it produces some positive growth.

Alas, no financial condition lasts forever, and this includes near-zero interest rates. Debt, however, does tend to be forever.

Low rates enabled this delusion. But it runs deeper: The last decade saw a backlash from the left and the right against neoliberalism, the belief that more market-based policies and freer trade would bring about better economic growth. As my colleague Clive Crook has pointed out, a rejection of neoliberalism is essentially a rejection of the principle that any policy poses tradeoffs. Neoliberalism does not promise constant growth or eliminate the possibility of job loss. On balance, however, it creates more winners and growth than the alternative.

The alternative — that if countries traded less, did all they could to boost demand and allowed the government to direct commerce — made for a much more seductive pitch. The result, so we were told, would be more certainty, more growth, more wealth and even more wealth equality. The failure of Bidenomics demonstrated just how deluded that view is. In economies as in financial markets, there is no growth without risk, and the bill eventually comes due. Every policy choice comes with winners and losers, cost and benefits.

Tradeoffs, in other words. If anyone is telling you otherwise, they are trying to sell you something.

Allison Schrager is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering economics. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, she is author of “An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk.”

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Last week, I wrote about restaurant closures, which was necessary but sad.

This week, let’s focus on what’s great in St. Paul restaurants — in particular, our three 2025 James Beard semifinalists!

It had been a minute since I had been to any of the three St. Paul restaurants (the greater Twin Cities is celebrating 11 chefs or restaurants on the long list), so I thought it would be fun to grab a bite and see what these dining rooms are like after receiving this exciting recognition.

The James Beard Foundation Awards, considered the Oscars of the U.S. culinary community, have three phases. The first is the naming of semifinalists, also known as the long list, which is where we are at. The shortlist of finalists, or nominees, will be announced April 2. Winners are revealed at a ceremony in Chicago on June 10.

Myriel

Creamed cabbage at Myriel on Cleveland Avenue in St. Paul. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

Chef/owner Karyn Tomlinson is no stranger to the James Beard Awards — this is the fourth time she’s been a semifinalist. Tomlinson also took home the national crown in the now-defunct whole hog cooking competition Cochon 555 in 2018. This year, like in years past, she’s up for an award in the Best Chef Midwest category.

Since the first time I tasted her food at Corner Table in Minneapolis, I knew Tomlinson was a chef to watch. Her cuisine is stark in its simplicity, allowing the ingredients to speak for themselves.

Our recent dinner at her 45-seat Cleveland Avenue restaurant was as good as ever, and included one dish that I cannot stop thinking about.

We built our own ala carte meal rather than booking a tasting menu, which is listed as a two-and-a-half-hour experience.

Bamboo cocktail at Myriel on St. Paul’s Cleveland Avenue. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

I love the way the bar embraces sherry, which I came to love during trips to Spain. The fortified, often oxidized wine can be an acquired taste, but a cocktail is a great way to bring some of its nutty, rich characteristics to the party without overpowering a new-to-sherry palate. Our favorite was probably the bar’s take on a Bamboo, a mix of amontillado sherry, which has some hazelnut qualities, with a white Japanese vermouth. The complexity of the two-ingredient drink really blew our minds. Because it’s essentially two wines, it’s also low-alcohol, which was great on a weeknight.

Standouts from the food menu included stewed black lentils, cooked to a perfect al dente. Mustard seeds give a pop of flavor, and some bitter cabbage offers further texture and flavor to this dish, some variation of which I have had every time I’ve eaten at Myriel.

But the creamed cabbage, sliced into thin strands before being caramelized slightly and bathed in a rich, yet light sauce, is the taste I’m still craving, more than a week later.

I also adored the fluffy potato dumplings — a great vehicle for caramelized onion, sprightly dill powder and umami-packed alpine cheese, so finely grated it sunk into the dish like melting snow.

After all these great vegetable dishes, meat felt like almost an afterthought, but barley-fed lamb and walleye paired with an heirloom corn porridge were executed perfectly and filled us up nicely.

We finished with a slice of Tomlinson’s legendary apple pie, which consists of diced apples just barely sweetened and enveloped in a flaky, lard-enhanced crust. It reminds me so much of my grandmother’s simple, perfect pies that it never fails to make me tear up.

Myriel: 470 Cleveland Ave. S., St. Paul; 651-340-3568; myrielmn.com

Hyacinth

Fusilli with ragu at Hyacinth restaurant on St. Paul’s Grand Avenue. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

Chef/owner Abraham Gessesse has been at the helm of this 35-seat eatery for just a little more than a year. He took over for the previous chef/owner, Rikki Giambruno, who moved out of state.

That’s a pretty short period of time to impress voters for the Beards, but Gessesse has done just that, scoring a spot on the long list for Best Chef Midwest. I hadn’t been to Hyacinth since Gessesse took over, so it was high time to return.

The menu format is the same — salads and starters, pastas and a few entrees — and the quality and service are just as good.

We started with a few salads, because Hyacinth has always had a way with raw vegetables, and both a Cara Cara orange (with sprightly mint, salty olives and crunchy pistachios) and a celery root (with rich blue cheese, sweet pears and candied walnuts) were great, if a little on the acidic side.

We followed the salads with a springy fusilli with a rich, beefy ragu — the kind of stick-to-your-ribs comfort we were looking for on a frigid evening — and the risotto al salto, a pan-fried version of the ubiquitous Italian rice dish. That risotto was better than previous versions I’ve had at Hyacinth: Crisped but not overly so, and accompanied by a sweet carrot puree, a pungent soft cheese and rich toasted dates.

Panna cotta with Japanese black sugar at Hyacinth on St. Paul’s Grand Avenue. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

Because I had never tried Japanese black sugar, I had to order the panna cotta, which was topped with a thick syrup made from it. The sugar is like an extra-rich, extra-flavorful version of brown sugar with malty, caramelly, saline flavors, and it is incredible with the restaurant’s barely sweet, silky panna cotta. I’d return just for that dessert, and I’m not really a dessert person.

The cocktails here are inventive and tasty, and the wine list is excellent. The cozy atmosphere is perfect any time of year, but it feels especially good when there’s a chill in the air.

And Gessesse is starting to hold pop-ups of another concept, The Injera Circle, that focuses on his Ethiopian heritage. I can’t wait to check it out. Follow that project on Instagram @theinjeracircle for updates.

Hyacinth: 790 Grand Ave., St. Paul; 651-478-1822; hyacinthstpaul.com

Mucci’s

A mountain of Caesar salad and a loaf of focaccia at Mucci’s in St. Paul. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press)

I’m so thrilled for owner Tim Niver. After spending his entire career making diners feel welcome, Niver, who has owned a handful of restaurants in the Twin Cities, has been nominated for a national James Beard award in the Outstanding Hospitality category.

This slip of a restaurant (it seats just 44 people inside) on a nondescript corner of Raymond Avenue is painted black and has no signage, but neighbors and fans from throughout the Twin Cities know how to find it. And they know that a smiling face, often Niver’s, will greet them when they walk through the doors.

The inside of Mucci’s is black, too, which might seem cold in some rooms, but this one is brightened by lots of greenery and made comfortable by considerate sound-absorbing panels allowing for easy conversation between diners.

If Niver’s in the house, he’s bopping from table to table, clearing plates, filling water glasses and checking on customers. He’s talking to the many regulars he’s gotten to know over the years, and making sure the food — mostly pastas and pizzas, is up to standards.

Chicken Marsala at Mucci’s in St. Paul. (Jess Fleming / Pioneer Press

My kids love Mucci’s for the tall slices of lasagna, crisp-crusted pizza (the crust is deep-fried before it’s baked) and velvety tiramisu, but I’m always pleasantly surprised by the more sophisticated dishes on the menu, like a lovely chicken marsala on this visit.

We always start with a mountain of Caesar salad, and I also recommend the fantastic little loaves of focaccia for swiping up any extra sauces.

Don’t wait until spring to visit, but keep in mind that the restaurant also added a lovely side patio in recent years, which is perfect for enjoying our too-short summer season.

Mucci’s: 786 Randolph Ave., St. Paul; 651-330-2245; muccisitalian.com

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Since he began touting it on the campaign trail, the idea that President Donald Trump could enact “mass deportations”—totalling perhaps a million a year or more—has been criticized as a tall order. In his first term, Trump’s administration only carried out about 1.5 million removals total, well short of the yearly deportation rates set by the Obama administration. 

Now, first-month deportations data obtained by Reuters shows Trump expelling immigrants at a slower rate than Joe Biden did last year, when the Democrat ramped up his deportation efforts. Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) initially shared daily arrest counts on social media, with numbers approaching 1,000, but has since ceased the practice. Population counts in ICE detention under Trump 2.0 have increased from around 40,000 to around 41,000. 

Though they’ve successfully spread fear among immigrant communities, Trump and his border czar Tom Homan—who has pledged to run “the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen”—are reportedly already upset that their numbers aren’t more eye-popping.

Among the obstacles to Trump’s vision of the “largest deportation in the history of our country” is a simple lack of manpower: Nationwide, ICE only has around 6,000 deportation agents. For the president’s plans to come to fruition, ICE will likely need not just increased funding from Congress but greater cooperation from local police around the country—in other words, the agency may need to turn beat cops and sheriff’s deputies across the nation into Homan’s henchmen. And in Texas, this process now appears to be kicking off in earnest. 

Over the past month, three agencies in Texas—the Office of the Attorney General, the Smith County Sheriff’s Office, and the Goliad County Sheriff’s Office—have signed agreements with ICE establishing what are known as 287(g) “Task Force Model” agreements. These agreements, two of which were obtained by the Observer, allow local officers who’ve received federal training to “perform certain functions of an immigration officer.” Specifically, these functions include the power to “interrogate any alien or person believed to be an alien as to his right to be or remain in the United States”; arrest without a warrant anyone the officer believes “is in the United States in violation of law and is likely to escape before a warrant can be obtained”; execute warrants for immigration violations; and prepare immigration charging documents.

When exercising this newfound authority, local officers must seek guidance from an ICE supervisor—but are allowed to do so “as soon as is practicable” after exercising the authority.

Task force-style 287(g) agreements haven’t existed for 13 years, when they were terminated amid controversy. As of Wednesday evening, ICE had also inked around 60 task force agreements outside Texas: with agencies primarily in Florida, in addition to Oklahoma, Kansas, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Idaho, according to the agency’s website.

“This is the Trump administration desperate to meet the goals that it’s set to carry out its mass deportation agenda,” said Nayna Gupta, policy director at the American Immigration Council. “But he’s having trouble reaching those numbers, because he doesn’t have the manpower and the infrastructure to actually rip away people who have years and years of life in our communities and are deeply entwined. This is the administration trying to ramp up agreements with local law enforcement agencies to be a force multiplier for mass deportation.”

The Texas attorney general’s office was the first agency to sign a new task force agreement.  Though the office of the attorney general largely functions as an investigative and prosecutorial arm of the state, the agency also has its own commissioned peace officers and a Criminal Investigations Division. After his office signed the agreement in late January, Attorney General Ken Paxton bragged about the deal and urged other state and local police to do the same.

“I am proud to be the first to join [Trump] to restore our national sovereignty, secure our border, and ensure that criminal aliens face the justice they deserve,” Paxton said in the press release. “As the top law enforcement official in Texas, I call on all agencies and departments to join me in the fight.”

The Smith and Goliad County sheriffs joined Paxton in mid-February. Smith County Sheriff Larry Smith told the Observer he received approval from ICE two days after he signed the initial agreement. His county, home to Tyler, has some 245,000 residents and includes a University of Texas satellite campus. He plans on deputizing 22 officers, he said, to perform the functions of ICE agents. 

The 287(g) task force agreement won’t substantially change his deputies’ daily operations, Smith said, and there is already an ICE presence in his county. What may change, though, is his officers may be asked to conduct immigration-related enforcement outside their jurisdiction on occasion, he said. His deputies already do some police work outside Smith County through an anti-gang center. “So, I don’t foresee anything being any different for us,” Smith said.

Goliad is a rural county with a population of around 7,000, located along a major highway halfway between San Antonio and Houston. On his Facebook, Goliad County Sheriff Roy Boyd touted his new agreement, warning: “If you’re a criminal, remember to avoid Goliad.” Boyd, who also created an interagency Operation Lone Star Task Force, did not respond to the Observer’s requests for an interview.

In late January, Governor Greg Abbott signed an agreement with the federal Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to allow Texas National Guard soldiers to enforce immigration law in tandem with the Border Patrol. This agreement is pursuant to a different federal statute than 287(g). In comments to the Texas Tribune, Abbott said the agreement lets the Guard engage in “apprehending, arresting, jailing, and going through the deportation process.” Abbott initially said the state Department of Public Safety (DPS) had been given the same authority, the Tribune reported, but his office later clarified that DPS troopers were not directly making immigration arrests.

It is not clear if Abbott or DPS—which has around 5,000 commissioned officers—plans to deputize the state police force through a 287(g) task force, or any other agreement, which Paxton called for. ICE’s website does not show any agreement with DPS; the Observer requested a copy of any existing 287(g) task force model agreement, and the agency said there were no responsive records. 

DPS, ICE, and the offices of the governor and attorney general did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

The 287(g) program’s roots date back to the 1990s. Congress established the program under the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, which added a new section, 287(g), to the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

The federal government first entered into 287(g) agreements with local or state police agencies in the early 2000s, as immigration enforcement expanded post-9/11. In President Barack Obama’s first term, deportation numbers soared as the Democrat expanded local-federal cooperation (part of a failed gambit to earn Republican support for bipartisan immigration reform).  

But, in 2012—after lawsuits and federal investigations concerning racial profiling and national controversies over the actions of 287(g) task force participant and notorious Maricopa County, Arizona, Sheriff Joe Arpaio—the Obama administration ended the task force model.

“The track record that model in particular had … was one of racial profiling of U.S. citizens, costing local sheriffs a ton of money, subjecting them to lawsuits in federal court,” said Gupta, the policy director at the American Immigration Council. “When local police officers can make immigration arrests and put people into deportation proceedings at large in the community, they lose the trust of the people that they’re there to protect and keep safe. Then those people are less likely to report crimes. They’re less likely to trust public institutions.”

Following the Obama administration’s decision, two other 287(g) models were still used, called the jail enforcement and warrant service officer models. These essentially amount to allowing county law enforcement to screen for immigration status of people booked into jails, and they’ve sparked far less controversy. Trump did not revive the task force model in his first term.

ICE does pay for the training of local cops under 287(g) agreements but does not pay participating state or local police agencies for their time spent enforcing federal immigration law. “They’re using their own resources to enforce federal immigration laws,” Gupta said.

Tom Homan (center) in South Texas in November (Francesca D’Annunzio)

More task force 287(g) agreements may be forthcoming in Texas: The Sheriffs’ Association of Texas recently emailed every county’s top cop—all 254 of them—a sample copy of the task force agreement to sign, the organization’s executive director Thomas Kerss confirmed.

Some Republican lawmakers are also eager to ramp up the program further. Jacksboro Republican state Representative David Spiller—who carried controversial legislation to shift federal immigration authority to the state last session—has filed House Bill 2361, which would compel “each law enforcement agency of a political subdivision” to apply for the 287(g) program or face a possible lawsuit from the attorney general and loss of state grant funding. The bill does not specify a particular 287(g) program model. 

Spiller told the Observer HB 2361 was a collaborative effort and he received advice on the draft from attorneys general in other states and the Texas Public Policy Foundation and the blessing of Homan, the border czar. 

Over in the Senate, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has reserved Senate Bill 8 for legislation “requiring local law enforcement to assist the federal government’s deportation efforts,” but the bill has yet to be filed.

In Texas, there are more than 80,000 total local and state commissioned officers—dwarfing the 6,000 ICE deportation agents nationwide—setting up a possibly massive increase in Trump’s deportation capacity.

The goal of his bill, Spiller said, is to help ICE target people with criminal records—not simply any undocumented person. “We’re not just rounding people up that have been here forever, that might be in the country illegally. We are serving active criminal warrants on people that are here illegally. So, it’s to assist ICE in that process,” Spiller said.

But the history of 287(g) tells a different story about which immigrants are arrested by local police. A pair of DHS inspector general reports from 2010 show that most immigrants encountered or arrested through 287(g) programs had committed either minor crimes or traffic infractions.

In the early 2010s, the Department of Justice also investigated two sheriff’s departments participating in 287(g) programs, including Maricopa County, and found they unlawfully targeted or racially profiled Latinos.

“Somebody who’s undocumented, or in violation of civil immigration law in another way, doesn’t have a sign that says that on their face,” she said. “So in order to find people … it incentivized local police to target communities where they think they [will] find people to sweep in, and that meant inadvertently arresting or stopping U.S. citizens.”

In addition to reviving the 287(g) task force model program, the Trump administration has invoked a never-before-used legal provision that allows the federal government to deputize local law enforcement to carry out immigration enforcement during a “mass influx” of migrants—despite border crossings currently being very low.

The Texas National Guard agreement between Governor Abbott and CBP was made pursuant to this previously untested provision: section 103(a)(10) of the INA, which was added by the same act of Congress as 287(g). In contrast to 287(g), this provision allows for required federal training of local police to be waived; it also enables greater federal funding of local efforts, according to an explainer by the American Immigration Council. The Abbott-CBP agreement says that training is waived but that Texas will bear the costs.

As Trump and his allies in state and local government try to ramp up their mass deportation machinery—expanding its reach far beyond the already militarized borderlands—some advocates are already gearing up to fight back. 

In Tyler, where the county has a new task force deal, longtime pro-immigrant activist Dalila Reynoso said she plans to push her sheriff to reverse course.

Prior to signing the new 287(g) agreement, the Republican Sheriff Smith himself held a panel where he talked about how undocumented families in the community had already withdrawn from school, church, and work for fear of deportation. He assured residents during the panel that his department would not be looking for people in grocery stores and that his department’s collaboration with ICE would be limited in scope. Then, following some conservative backlash over his comments, Smith publicly apologized to “the citizens of Smith County, Governor Abbott and his office, Border Czar Tom Homan and President Trump” and emphasized his intention to sign a task force 287(g) agreement, which he did days later.

Reynoso said she is disappointed in Smith. The sheriff has long talked about the importance of building trust with his constituents, Reynoso said, and she thinks the task force agreement is a step in the wrong direction.

“If he also supposedly cares about victims and building that trust with [the] undocumented community, this is not the way you go about it,” Reynoso said. “People should be a priority. Not your politics.”

Justin Miller contributed reporting.

The post Local and State Police Are Joining Trump’s ‘Deportation Force’ appeared first on The Texas Observer.

SANTA FE, N.M. (AP) — Oscar-winning actor Gene Hackman and his wife were found dead in their New Mexico home Wednesday, authorities said.

Foul play is not suspected, however authorities did not release any details of the circumstances of their deaths and said an investigation is ongoing.

Santa Fe County Sheriff’s Office spokesperson Denise Avila said deputies responded to a request to do a welfare check at the home Wednesday around 1:45 pm local time and found Hackman, his wife Betsy Arakawa and a dog dead.

Hackman, 95, was one of the industry’s most respected and honored performers. His dozens of films included Oscar-winning roles in “The French Connection” and “Unforgiven” and had a breakout performance in “Bonnie and Clyde.”

This is a breaking news story. More information will be added as it comes in.