What if the federal government shut down and few people noticed — or cared? Nearly one month since the lights went out in Washington, most Americans don’t seem all that aware, let alone upset. Perhaps that’s why Democrats and Republicans in Congress, and President Donald Trump, are showing little interest in supporting compromise legislation to fund the government, reopen shuttered agencies and restart paused services.
Speaker Mike Johnson has basically disbanded the House of Representatives indefinitely, signaling he won’t gavel the chamber back into session until Senate Democrats vote to reopen Washington, although the Louisiana Republican’s apparent confidence that the politics of the impasse are unfolding in his party’s favor — shared by Trump and the Senate GOP — might yet prove incorrect. (House Republicans approved short-term legislation to fund the government before the money ran out on Sept. 30. Senate Democrats filibustered the bill, and here we are.)
“If you aren’t a government worker fretting payless paydays, the shutdown has shown very few impacts on American life,” Republican operative Barret Marson told me.
I checked in with Marson late last week because he is based in metropolitan Phoenix. His political environment is the perfect combination of “not the Washington bubble” and “battleground state that absorbs its fair share of partisan advertising.” His read: “People outside DC care more about the NBA gambling scandal and what the real meaning of 6-7 is than whether someone in the Bureau of Labor Statistics is showing up to an office. Impacts to daily life in Arizona seem scant.”
As Marson points out, if you’re among the millions of federal employees who are, or might be, adversely impacted by this latest government shutdown, you have noticed and you do care . Ditto your family, friends and the communities invested in your financial and psychological well-being. Soon to be added to their ranks if the shutdown doesn’t end soon: Americans who rely on SNAP benefits (food stamps) as well as active duty military and their families.
Their concerns might eventually spread to voters who aren’t directly affected. Maybe the air traffic controllers will walk off the job; Transportation Safety Administration employees (airport security screeners) might do the same. Americans hate to be inconvenienced, especially around major travel holidays like Thanksgiving and Christmas. Cumulatively, lawmakers in both parties could be compelled to change course, possibly quickly. But for now, Democrats and Republicans in Washington — and Trump — aren’t feeling intense pressure to end the government shutdown. If anything, and this is the key point, the incentives for all involved are to keep the dysfunction rolling.
First, let’s attend to the Democrats.
Congressional Democrats are demanding an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies in exchange for their votes to reopen the government. The subsidies are popular and without them, health insurance costs are going to skyrocket, and not just for Democrats in blue states. Many voters who swear by Trump and live in red states are going to suffer, which is why MAGA acolyte, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, wants to compromise with the Democrats.
That and the polling, which is not all that bad for the Democrats so far, would be enough for them to keep the fight going. But there’s a third reason, and it’s probably the most important: For months, the Democratic Party’s progressive base has demanded more resistance to Trump from their establishment’s leaders, who for decades opposed tactical government shutdowns as a matter of principle. Having taken the plunge and been rewarded by a swooning base, Democratic leaders have little motivation to quit (yet).
“Only pain will push a resolution,” Dane Strother, a Democratic operative who splits time between Sacramento and DC, told me. “This could well continue for some time.”
Strother offered both a word of caution for his party — “there are no winners in the shutdown” — and some blame Trump and the GOP: “Voters recognize Republicans control all three branches of government. Trump thrives on chaos so he won’t step up and work for a solution so this could well continue for some time.” Well, yes, but.
As I’ve previously written, the party that instigates the shutdown is typically rebuked by voters because they view the tactic as an illegitimate form of political combat. Check with the losing side in prior shutdowns. Trump and Republicans are accordingly confident that, as the president is fond of saying, they have more cards to play in this standoff.
It also can’t be said enough: Trump and congressional Republicans simply do not want to show weakness and reward the Democrats’ shutdown strategy by extending Obamacare subsidies in exchange for votes to reopen Washington. “We are not going to hold the American people hostage to have a policy dispute,” White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said in an interview with Punchbowl News. “Let’s figure out what we can do together (on health care). “But you have to open the government.”
And so, from the Republicans’ perspective, compromise carries a bigger risk than digging in. They’re probably right to feel that way. But a caveat:
The party that provokes the shutdown tends to lose partly because the other party plays the role of innocent bystander, doing everything possible short of acquiescing to the opposition’s demands, while doing everything legally possible to mitigate the disruption. Trump laying off government workers and selectively withholding funds from districts and states represented by congressional Democrats — even Johnson recessing the House — risk making the president and his party look like active participants in the shutdown, just like the Democrats.
That unusual factor has the potential to scramble how voters assign blame.
David M. Drucker is columnist covering politics and policy. He is also a senior writer for The Dispatch and the author of “In Trump’s Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP.”
