Bubble fears ease but investors still waiting for AI to live up to its promise

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By MICHAEL LIEDTKE

Fears about the artificial intelligence boom turning into an overblown bubble have diminished for now, thanks to a stellar earnings report from Nvidia that illustrated why its indispensable chips transformed it into the world’s most valuable company.

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But that doesn’t mean the specter of an AI bubble won’t return in the months and years ahead as Big Tech gears up to spend trillions of dollars more on a technology the industry’s leaders believe will determine the winners and losers during the next wave of innovation.

For now, at least, Nvidia has eased worries that the AI craze propelling the stock market and much of the economy for the past year is on the verge of a massive collapse.

If anything, Nvidia’s quarterly report indicated that AI spending is picking up even more momentum. The highlights, released late Wednesday, included quarterly revenue of $57 billion, a 62% increase from the same time last year. That sales growth was an acceleration from the 56% increase in year-over-year revenue from the May-July quarter.

What’s more, Nvidia forecast revenue of $65 billion for the current quarter covering November-January, which would be a 65% year-over-year increase.

Given Nvidia’s forecasts, “it is very hard to see how this stock does not keep moving higher from here,” according to analysts at UBS led by Timothy Arcuri. The UBS analyst also said the “AI infrastructure tide is still rising so fast that all boats will be lifted.”

Nvidia’s numbers are viewed through a window that extends far beyond the Santa Clara, California, company’s headquarters because its products are needed by a wide range of companies — including Big Tech peers like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms — to build data centers that are becoming known as AI factories.

“AI spending isn’t just holding up, it’s accelerating. That’s exactly what the market needed to see,” said Jake Behan, head of capital markets for investment firm Direxion.

The numbers initially lifted Nvidia’s stock price by as much as 5% in Thursday’s trading, while other tech stocks tied to the AI spending frenzy also got a boost. But Nvidia’s shares and other tech stocks reversed course later in the session as investors found other issues besides AI, such as the government’s latest jobs report and the future direction of interest rates.

Even with a 3% drop in its stock price amid the broader market decline, Nvidia remains valued at $4.4 trillion, more than 10 times its valuation three years ago when OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot, triggering the biggest technological shift since Apple released the iPhone in 2007.

Nvidia’s rapid rise has turned its CEO Jensen Huang into the chief evangelist for the AI revolution and he sought to use his bully pulpit during a late Wednesday conference call with industry analysts to make a case that the spending to make technology with humanlike intelligence is just beginning.

“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different,” Huang insisted while celebrating “depth and breadth” of Nvidia’s growth.

Huang is hardly a lone voice in the wilderness. A recent report from Gartner Inc. estimates that worldwide spending on AI will rise to more than $2 trillion next year, a 37% increase from the nearly $1.5 trillion that the research firm expects to be spent this year.

But it remains to be seen if all that money pouring into AI will actually produce all the profits and productivity that proponents have been promising. That leaves the question unanswered if all the real spending that’s happening will be worth it.

The most recent survey of global fund managers by Bank of America showed a record percentage of investors saying companies are “overinvesting.”

Big Tech is already so profitable that many of the most successful finance their spending sprees with their ongoing stream of revenue and cash hoards in their bank accounts. But some companies, such as Meta Platforms and Oracle, are relying more heavily on debt to fund their AI ambitions — a strategy that has raised enough alarms among investors that their stock prices have plunged more dramatically than their peers in recent weeks.

Both Meta and Oracle have suffered more than 20% declines in their stock prices since late October.

But other Big Tech powerhouses leading the way in AI remain just behind Nvidia and iPhone maker Apple in the rankings of the most valuable companies. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon boast market values currently ranging from $2.3 trillion to $3.6 trillion.

“It is true that valuations are high and that there is some froth in the market, however, the spending on AI is real,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for money manager Northlight Asset Management. “Whether or not the spending turns out to be overdone won’t be known for many years.”

AP Business Writer Stan Choe in New York contributed to this story.

Ramsey County Board Chair Rafael Ortega running for re-election

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A day after St. Paul City Council President Rebecca Noecker informed key supporters she plans to run for the District 5 seat on the Ramsey County Board of Commissioners next year, incumbent Rafael Ortega said he will defend that seat, which he’s held since 1994.

Rafael Ortega. (Courtesy of the candidate)

“I fully intend to run for reelection,” said Ortega, the Ramsey County Board chair, in a written statement shared Thursday. “I look forward to sharing the work we are doing to help the people who need help in Ramsey County and describing in more detail the work we are doing to improve transit and create economic development.”

Ortega, the board’s longest-serving member, said he usually sends supporters and potential delegates to the DFL endorsing convention a formal announcement between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, and this year will be no different.

Ortega and Noecker both represent downtown St. Paul, West Seventh Street and surrounding neighborhoods, including areas that have been hard-hit by the shift to remote work.

Rebecca Noecker. (Courtesy of the City of St. Paul)

To the chagrin of neighborhood organizers, the county last year abandoned efforts to install a long-planned streetcar or bus rapid transit system along West Seventh Street and instead redirected some $730 million in future funding from the county’s half-cent sales tax to other road and transit projects, most of them disconnected from the corridor.

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Instead of a streetcar, the West Seventh area is now home to a truck maintenance depot for FCC Environmental, the contracted trash hauler performing the majority of the city’s residential trash collection for one-to-four unit buildings.

Their arrival, like the uncertain future of West Seventh’s long-awaited street reconstruction, has also been a sore point with neighborhood advocates.

Cracker Barrel shareholders vote to keep CEO despite logo debacle

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By DEE-ANN DURBIN, Associated Press

Cracker Barrel shareholders voted Thursday to keep company CEO Julie Felss Masino in place despite a debacle over the company’s logo that continues to hurt its sales.

But one of the company’s directors, Gilbert Davila, resigned from Cracker Barrel’s board Thursday after preliminary results indicated that shareholders rejected his reelection.

Davila, who joined Cracker Barrel’s board in 2020, is the president and CEO of DMI Consulting, a multicultural marketing firm. He reviewed Cracker Barrel’s advertising as part of his role on the board. Two influential shareholder advisory firms, Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis, had recommended against Davila’s reelection ahead of the vote.

Sardar Biglari, a longtime Cracker Barrel shareholder and activist investor, was among those pressing for the ouster of Masino and Davila. Biglari is the chairman and CEO of Biglari Holdings Inc., a San Antonio, Texas-based company that owns Steak ‘n Shake. He also owns 3% of Cracker Barrel’s shares.

“Our campaign is about saving Cracker Barrel from a board and management team that are out of touch with Cracker Barrel’s customer base,” Biglari said in a letter sent earlier this month to Cracker Barrel investors.

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In its own statement, Cracker Barrel thanked its shareholders and said it was committed to returning the company to sales growth.

“We are more focused than ever on delivering high-quality food and experiences to our guests while staying true to the heritage that makes Cracker Barrel so special, ensuring we are here to welcome families around our table for generations to come,” the company said.

Cracker Barrel’s shares fell nearly 5.5% Thursday to close at $25.97 per share. They are down 52% from the start of this year.

Cracker Barrel hired Masino, a longtime Taco Bell and Starbucks executive, in July 2023. She was chosen for her record as an innovator, with the hope that she would attract new customers to Cracker Barrel, which operates 660 restaurants in 43 states.

Masino introduced updated menu items, like Hashbrown Casserole Shepherd’s Pie, to increase Cracker Barrel’s dinnertime traffic. She also started remodeling the company’s dark, antique-filled restaurants, lightening the walls and installing more comfortable seating.

But her decision in August to simplify the chain’s logo had disastrous consequences. Fans didn’t like that the new logo didn’t include Cracker Barrel’s longtime mascot, an overall-clad man leaning on a barrel, or the words “Old Country Store.” They also rebelled against the store redesigns.

Cracker Barrel reversed course a week later, saying it would keep its old logo. In early September, the company also suspended the remodeling of its restaurants.

The moves could hurt Cracker Barrel’s sales well into next year. Cracker Barrel said in September that store traffic would likely be down between 7% and 8% in its fiscal first quarter and could decline 4% to 7% for the full 2026 fiscal year, which began Aug. 2.

Ramsey County CFO Alex Kotze named deputy county manager

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Ramsey County has named Alex Kotze as its deputy county manager and chief operating officer with her role beginning Dec. 1.

Kotze, currently the county’s chief financial officer, will lead the county’s newly established Operations Service Team. She has served as the county’s CFO since 2020, managing the county’s $870 million operating budget.

“She brings a strong track record of service in both state and county government, with a deep understanding that effective internal operations are critical to ensuring we operate as One Ramsey County in service to our community,” said County Manager Ling Becker in a statement. “Her depth of experience, values and leadership will strengthen our collective efforts to build a more efficient, collaborative, and resident-centered organization.”

After joining the county in 2020, Kotze later served as interim deputy county manager of the Health and Wellness Service Team from 2024 to July 2025, where she oversaw Social Services, Community Corrections and other departments.

As part of 2025 supplemental budget discussions, county officials have decided to restructure, with the new system taking effect Jan. 1. This will reduce the size of the county’s Health and Wellness Service Team and sunset the county’s Strategic Team and Information and Public Records Service Team.

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Kotze will oversee and develop strategy for county departments that support property management, finance and information services as the county restructures its internal operations team.

Before joining the county, Kotze served as the Minnesota Department of Human Services’ chief financial officer and as fiscal and policy administrator for Milwaukee County’s Department of Health and Human Services.

Kotze has a bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota, and a master’s in public policy from the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago.