By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, Associated Press Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the Federal Reserve widely expected Wednesday to reduce its key interest rate by a quarter-point to about 4.1%, economists and Wall Street investors will be looking for signals about next steps: How deeply might the Fed cut in the next few months?

There are typically two different approaches the central bank takes to lowering borrowing costs: Either a measured pace that reflects a modest adjustment to its key rate, or a much more rapid set of cuts as the economy deteriorates in an often-doomed effort to stave off recession.

For now, most economists expect it will take the first approach: What many analysts call a “recalibration” of rates to keep the economy growing and businesses hiring. Under this view, the Fed would reduce rates as many as five times by the middle of next year, bringing its rate closer to a level that neither stimulates or slows the economy.

Wall Street traders expect three reductions this year and then two more by next June, according to futures pricing tracked by CME Fedwatch.

FILE – Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook, right, talks with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before an open meeting of the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve, June 25, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File)

A rate cut Wednesday would be the first in nine months. The Fed, led by Chair Jerome Powell, reduced borrowing costs three times last year. But it then put any further cuts on hold to evaluate the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on the economy.

As recently as their last meeting in late July, Powell described the job market as “solid” and kept rates unchanged as officials sought to take more time to see how the economy evolved.

Since then, however, the government has reported a sharp slowdown in hiring, and previous government data has been revised much lower. Employers actually cut back slightly on their payrolls in June, shedding 13,000 jobs, and added just 22,000 in August.

The government also said last week that its estimate of job gains for the year ended in March 2025 would likely be revised down by 911,000, a sharp reduction in total employment. Powell and other Fed officials had previously pointed to a robust job market as a key reason that they could afford to keep rates unchanged. But with businesses pulling back on hiring, the economic case for a rate cut — which can spur more borrowing and spending — is stronger.

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The downward revision of nearly a million jobs is a “huge downgrade,” said Talley Leger, chief market strategist at the Wealth Consulting Group. “If that doesn’t light a fire under the Fed just from an economic perspective I don’t know what will.”

Still, inflation remains stubbornly elevated, partly because tariffs have lifted the cost of some goods, such as furniture, appliances and food. Prices rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier, the government said last week, up from 2.7% a month earlier.

Persistent inflation could keep the Fed from cutting too rapidly. The central bank will release its quarterly economic projections after the meeting Wednesday, and many economists forecast they will show that officials expect three total reductions this year and at least two more next year.

Five reductions would bring the Fed’s key rate down to just above 3%. Many economists think that is roughly the rate that would neither stimulate nor slow the economy.

If Fed officials began to worry the economy would slip into recession, they would likely cut rates more quickly. But for now, most economists don’t see rapid cuts as necessary.

“We’re not at a break-glass moment,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at BNY Investments. “This is a recalibration.”

In the coming years, Texas is set to receive billions of dollars to address the ongoing opioid crisis that has taken the lives of more than 10,000 Texans between 2020 and 2023, per state data. Already, the state has allocated over $100 million in funds to cities and counties. Some local governments have begun to use the money, while others haven’t spent a dime. 

The payouts come from legal settlements with opioid manufacturers, distributors, and consultants for their role in pushing prescription opioids across the country. The funds, which will be distributed annually for the next 18 years, are coming as recent cuts under the Trump administration hit both Medicaid and the federal agency serving people with substance use disorder. Meanwhile, the spread of more potent opioids, including fentanyl, has been met with an increasingly militarized border crackdown that experts say don’t address the root problems.

The last time corporations paid out legal settlements for harming public health—the big tobacco settlements from more than two decades ago—much of the money was not used to curb smoking or the harms associated with it. This time around, experts say that how the opioid funds are used in these early years could set the tone for the next nearly two decades that Texas receives settlement dollars.

“We have this opportunity here to actually get money into areas that have been afflicted,” said Tyler Varisco, director of the Pharmacy Addictions Research & Medicine Program at the University of Texas at Austin. “There is a tremendous amount of public benefit in ensuring that these funds are spent responsibly.”

That’s why researchers, advocates, and the press are keeping a close eye on how that money is spent. In Texas, the Opioid Abatement Fund Council—led by 14 state appointees—is in charge of awarding most of the money through grants to nonprofits, universities, hospitals and local governments, depending on the specific grant requirements. Meanwhile, 15 percent goes to state agencies and another 15 percent to counties and municipalities, which aren’t required to disclose their spending.

To fill the local transparency gap, Katie Harris of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy reviewed budgets and records from 21 jurisdictions, categorizing about $60 million in settlement funds. Her findings, released in August, show millions already spent on services for prevention, treatment, recovery and harm reduction, aligning with nationally recognized principles on use of opioid settlement funds.

Collin County is using some of the money to hire recovery coaches. Bexar County is supporting sober housing. Dallas and Travis counties are funding peer-support programs. Many places are expanding medication assisted treatment, in which patients are prescribed less potent opioids such as methadone or buprenorphine to reduce cravings and prevent withdrawals.

There were also several purchases of naloxone, an overdose-reversing nasal spray commonly known by its brand name Narcan. It’s available over the counter for about $30 to $50 for a pair of doses, freely available through various harm-reduction groups, and kept in some schools and by some first responders.

Others are focusing on law enforcement. In Montgomery County, funds are being used on phone forensic tools to identify drug dealers. Plano’s police department is investing in drug-testing kits, protective gloves, and training. Tarrant County and the city of Dallas are putting money into drug court systems.

“If we don’t invest in evidence-based services to address this crisis, we’re just going to see this problem continue and potentially increase,” said Magdalena Cerdá, director of the Center for Opioid Epidemiology and Policy at New York University. She pointed to fentanyl and xylazine test strips as an additional tool for harm reduction, but they are outlawed in Texas despite recent efforts to legalize them.

Other cities and counties, meanwhile, are diverting or not using the money.

Nueces County, which has seen 134 opioid-related deaths since 2020, put its settlement funds into its general fund to avoid having to raise taxes, according to Harris’ findings. Harris County, which had the highest number of opioid-related deaths in the state every year since 2020, has yet to spend or earmark any of the $6 million it received, though the city of Houston has begun to use its portion. Corpus Christi didn’t disclose how funds were being used. 

In addition, according to the Texas Observer’s review of state Comptroller data, about $250,000 of the allocated funds so far, less than 1 percent of the total, has yet to be claimed by dozens of cities and counties in any of three yearly disbursements since 2023. If funds aren’t claimed within two years, the funds will be redirected to the state opioid abatement council.

Baylor County, population 3,500, in north Texas has about $20,000 in unclaimed funds. The county treasurer, Kevin Hostas, told the Observer that the county commissioners chose not to accept the funds, but was unaware as to why. In Shenandoah, a small town next to The Woodlands, $31,000 has been unclaimed; the city’s administrator thinks the funds could have better use elsewhere since they have no programs and no opioid crisis.

“Shenandoah is a small city with a geographic footprint of 2.2 square miles. We are not experiencing an opioid problem at this time, nor do we have programs or city facilities that deal with this issue. There’s nothing to apply those funds to in Shenandoah, which is why we have not claimed them. It would be great if those funds could be redistributed to areas that badly need them,” Kathie Reyer, the city administrator for Shenandoah, said in a statement.

Researchers say small allocations do make it hard for rural or sparsely populated areas to launch programs on their own, but they note that funding could be given to regional organizations or neighboring localities. But Marcia Ory, professor at the Texas A&M University School of Public Health and co-chair of the university’s Health Opioid Task Force, warns against municipalities that may not have many or any opioid-related deaths from being complacent. 

“You don’t know you have a problem till you have a problem,” she said, pointing to recent fentanyl-linked overdoses in Cleveland ISD in East Texas. Ory received a grant from the state council, funded by settlement dollars, that will help her team conduct community events in schools across the state to address youth prevention. She thinks smaller prevention events could be replicated by other local governments. “The bottom line is it doesn’t have to be a huge amount of money to make a difference.”

Events like these are already happening across the state, particularly in late August around International Overdose Awareness Day. In Amarillo, an organization founded by a mom who lost her son to an overdose hosted an event with inflatables, live music, food trucks, and free Narcan. And in Montgomery County, a similar event took place that originated years ago when four moms who lost their sons to opioids met in a grief recovery group.

“We decided that instead of meeting people after their loved ones passed away, after the grief, that we could go out and do something to make a difference in the community,” Kimberly Rosinski, one of the founders of the nonprofit Montgomery County Overdose Prevention Endeavor (M-COPE), told the Observer at the event. 

Now in its fifth year, the event hosted dozens of local organizations and a former NFL football player, Jason Phillips, who recounted his story of addiction. Thousands of dollars were given out in scholarships. The school’s hallways displayed hundreds of portraits of people across Texas who have died after a substance overdose.

At the center of the school, a balloon display split into three colors allowed people to share how their loved ones are affected by substance use disorder: white for sobriety, black for loss, and red for active use.

The Texas Memorial Walkway at Magnolia High School on August 17, 2025, honoring Texans lost to overdose. (José Luis Martínez)

“It’s been very healing for me to not just stay in that grief but to try and do something positive with that,” Rosinski said, wearing a jersey with her son Stephen’s name and his football number, 50.

While these events are happening in a handful of cities and counties, researchers like UT Austin’s Varisco said that there should be a place for these ideas and outcomes to be shared among local officials across the state.

“I would want to have opportunities for people to learn from each other to ensure that we’re not buying things that aren’t going to work or spending where it doesn’t matter,” he said. “And that’s what I’m most worried about right now is that we do have this opportunity to make some real differences and some real changes and then that we’re just not going to fully capitalize on that because there is no guidance and there is no expertise to go along with these areas.”

The post How Texas Localities Have (and Haven’t) Spent Settlement Funds to Fight the Opioid Crisis  appeared first on The Texas Observer.

By DAVID CRARY, Associated Press National Writer

NEW YORK (AP) — For the Boy Scouts of America — recently renamed Scouting America — the past 12 years have been arduous. Opening its programs to gay people and later to girls sparked dismay in some quarters. Its 2020 bankruptcy declaration led to prolonged wrangling over compensation for thousands of men claiming they were sexually abused as scouts.

Yet the 115-year-old organization — though serving far fewer youths than at its peak decades ago — seems to be stabilizing, with a slight uptick in membership last year. A key factor is the abiding loyalty of major religious denominations that still view scouting’s mission as uniquely in tune with their own.

“I tell parents this is the best time to be involved with Scouting America, and the best time to be involved through a Catholic unit,” said Bill Guglielmi, who chairs the National Catholic Committee on Scouting. “There is a hunger out there now for finding a values-based organization.”

Scout Troop 228 participates in the U.S. flag retirement ceremony for Saint Kateri Tekakwitha Church during the annual Patriots Day observance at the church in Santa Clarita, Calif., on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Krysta Fauria)

Guglielmi and others who are engaged in faith-based scouting praise the manner in which time-honored scouting programs — such as camping and expeditions — have been blended with newfangled activities such as indoor skydiving and an artificial-intelligence merit badge. But foremost, they value the organization’s continued commitment to communal prayer.

“Worship is a big deal here,” said Bill McCalister, who served more than 40 years as scoutmaster of Troop 285 in San Antonio under sponsorship of a United Methodist church.

“Every campout, we have a formal worship service. Sometimes we serve Communion,” he said. “Many scouts come to me and say, ‘Mr. Mac, this is my church.’”

A diversity of faiths in scouting

According to Scouting America’s latest data, faith-based organizations account for 42% of the nearly 40,000 units operated by chartered organizations. The Catholic Church and its affiliates are No. 1 — overseeing 3,514 units serving more than 87,100 of the roughly 1 million boys and girls now active in scouting.

Other major sponsors include the United Methodists, the Episcopal Church and various Lutheran and Presbyterian denominations. Nearly 250 units, serving more than 6,500 scouts, are sponsored by Muslim, Jewish and Buddhist organizations.

Roger Krone, Scouting America’s president and CEO, took the post in 2023 as the organization emerged from bankruptcy proceedings. He appreciates scouting’s religious diversity.

In this photo provided by Rashid Abdullah, from left, he, Shafiqah McLaughlin and his son, Nuruddin Abdul-Rashid, attend a Vietnamese Jamboree at Camp Snyder in Virginia on July 1, 2018. (Rashid Abdullah/National Association of Muslim Americans on Scouting via AP)

“It really speaks to the alignment of the mission, vision and values that our organization has and what those organizations have,” he told The Associated Press. “It’s character development, it’s spiritual growth, it’s community service.”

The Boy Scouts lifted a ban on openly gay youth members in 2013 and began accepting girls in 2018 — steps Krone depicted as a message of welcome to any family considering scouting.

One step the organization will not take, Krone said, is abandoning the religious credo at the core of its mission. The famed Scout Oath begins, “On my honor I will do my best to do my duty to God,” while the Scout Law’s concluding message is: “Be reverent toward God. Be faithful in your religious duties. Respect the belief of others.”

“There are some places today where you’re not encouraged to talk about spiritual growth and what may be going on outside your little bubble,” Krone said. “In our organization, it’s been core to our principles for years and years and will continue to be core.”

Krone acknowledges that some nonreligious families, while admiring aspects of scouting, might be uncomfortable with the “Duty to God” pledge. He encourages them to try scouting nonetheless.

“You are all welcome in our organization,” he said. “But I want people to know when you come to scouting, there’s this concept of reverence and spiritual growth and saying prayers and being thoughtful.”

“The parent can come and be a volunteer and go through a couple meetings and a couple of campouts and watch what we do, see what effect the way we deal with duty to God and reverence has on the youth of your child’s age, and then make a decision,” Krone said. “Don’t dismiss us out of hand.”

How it’s done by Troop 228

That welcoming approach is fully practiced by Troop 228, chartered by St. Kateri Tekakwitha Catholic Church in the Los Angeles suburb of Santa Clarita, according to one of its adult leaders, Christine Tezai.

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She estimates that less than half the troop’s 40-plus scouts are Catholic, yet all participate in occasional religion-themed events, including an annual Mass at which religious awards are presented.

“It doesn’t matter if you’re Catholic,” Tezai said. “A scout is reverent — it doesn’t matter how you’re reverent. You don’t have to say prayers. … You know what we do by showing kindness and being helpful.”

Her 17-year-old son, Mykhail Tezai, entered Cub Scouts in the first grade. Now, as a high school senior, he’s on track to become an Eagle Scout.

He said several fellow scouts don’t identify with a specific faith but feel comfortable in a church-chartered troop.

“They’re very curious about my religion and being Catholic,” he said. “They want to know how it works.”

Some faith groups broke away

After the 2013 decision to admit gay youth, some disgruntled conservatives formed a new group, Trail Life USA, which created its own ranks, badges and uniforms. It now claims 65,000 youth members, participating in church-run units aligned with “biblical Christian principles.”

The biggest blow came at the start of 2020, when The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints — then the Boy Scouts’ largest faith-based partner — withdrew more than 400,000 scouts in favor of new programs of its own.

Krone said many Latter-day Saints families remain fond of Boy Scout programming and now place their children in units unaffiliated with their church.

“We would love to have more Mormon youth in our program,” Krone said. “They can have their own program … but also maybe embrace Scouting America more than they have the last couple of years to gain the benefits of the program we’ve developed.”

As for Trail Life, Krone acknowledged that its conservative Christian outlook has strong appeal for some families.

“But our program will prepare you better for life,” he said. “Once you get out of high school … you need to learn to get along with others in the world as it is today, outside of the environment that you grew up in.”

The loss of many units affiliated with the Latter-day Saints and conservative Christian churches was part of a broader shrinkage experienced by the Boy Scouts, which served more than 4 million boys in the 1970s. The COVID-19 pandemic and the bankruptcy process were major factors as membership dwindled.

In all, more than 82,000 people filed claims alleging they were sexually abused as scouts. Leading faith-based sponsors of scout units, including Catholic dioceses and Methodist churches, contributed to a $2.4 billion reorganization plan that took effect in 2023, allowing the Boy Scouts to keep operating while compensating abuse survivors.

The Rev. Mark Carr, a Jesuit priest who serves as national chaplain for Catholic scouting, said concerns about liability and insurance were key factors in dissuading some dioceses from continuing with scouting.

For those who stayed, a deep commitment

Steven Scheid, director of the United Methodists’ Center for Scouting Ministries, sees some upsides for scouting after its previous difficulties. He cited rigorous child-protection policies that he views as effective in curtailing sex abuse.

“The lessons we can gain out of the mistakes of the past can make a better, stronger community, a safer one,” he said.

Back in 2013, the United Methodists accounted for almost 350,000 youth members in the Boy Scouts. The figure now is 52,600.

But Scheid, an assistant scoutmaster of a troop founded in 1916 in Springfield, Tennessee, says adults still loyal to scouting “are deeply committed. … They see this as a calling.”

While Christian churches account for the vast majority of Scouting America’s faith-based units, there are more than 3,500 scouts in Muslim-sponsored units and about 1,560 in Jewish-affiliated units.

“Muslims in America are searching for their identity, and there’s nothing more American than scouting,” said Rashid Abdullah, executive director of the executive director of the National Association of Muslim Americans on Scouting. “It’s aligning perfectly with the values of our faith.”

Abdullah is also a lead organizer of scout units chartered to the Islamic Center of Northern Virginia Trust and the father of three sons who — like himself — made Eagle Scout.

Another Eagle Scout of long standing is Ricky Mason, a bankruptcy attorney who helped negotiate the reorganization plan and who next year will become the second Jewish chair of the Scouts’ National Executive Committee. His mother foresightedly told Mason when he was 7 that he would become an Eagle Scout through their synagogue-sponsored troop in Richmond, Virginia.

Amid concerns that antisemitism is increasing, Mason depicts scouting as a way for the U.S. Jewish community to remain connected with American society.

“In addition to the having fun part, scouting is really about character and leadership development,” Mason said. “This organization is needed now more than ever.”

AP journalist Krysta Fauria in Los Angeles contributed.

Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.

By Jeff Ostrowski, Bankrate.com

Nearly everyone thinks the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week. That sentiment has translated to falling mortgage rates. Last week, the average 30-year fixed rate dropped to 6.38%, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. Rates haven’t been this low in nearly a year.

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“These lower rates reflect growing market optimism that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates at its next meeting on Sept. 17, with further cuts expected through the end of the year,” says Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage.

An important note: Mortgage rates are dictated not by central bank policy but by a complex array of factors, including 10-year Treasury yields and demand for mortgages among the investors who buy home loans. Reflecting signs of a slowing economy, 10-year Treasury rates recently flirted with 4%, well below the 4.5% levels seen earlier this year.

Even so, the economic data remains decidedly mixed. The Labor Department’s August jobs report came in weaker than expected, setting the stage for the Fed to cut rates. However, the August inflation report told a different story — price increases accelerated to 2.9%, moving further away from the Fed’s 2% target and arguing against a rate cut.

But if the Fed does cut rates by a quarter-point as expected, what will happen to mortgage rates? Alas, it’s not an easy question to answer, but here are some scenarios of how things could play out.

Scenario 1: Mortgage rates rise

We’ve seen this movie before: When the central bank cut its benchmark rate last year, mortgage rates rose.

In mid-September 2024, the average rate on 30-year loans was 6.2%, according to Bankrate’s national survey. Then, the Fed cut rates at three meetings in a row, cumulatively lowering its benchmark rate by a full percentage point. How did mortgage rates respond? They defied the Fed and shot up, rising above 7%.

That disconnect between the federal funds rate and mortgage rates suggests that even if the central bank trims rates twice this year, as most observers expect, mortgage rates could head back toward 7%.

Last year, mortgage rates zigged while Fed policy zagged, a clear reminder that the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. If recent history repeats itself, then the coming cut has already been built into mortgage rates, and they’ll go up from here — especially given the surprising stubbornness of inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) has been held aloft in part by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

“I expect rates to have some slight upward pressure as the market processes CPI data and the upcoming Fed meeting,” says Robert J. Smith, chief economist at GetWYZ Mortgage.

In this scenario, the recent optimism about lower rates quickly evaporates.

Scenario 2: Mortgage rates stay the same

Perhaps history doesn’t repeat itself. Maybe mortgage rates settle into the range of 6.25% to 6.5%. That would be a welcome relief from a recent run of elevated mortgage rates. They briefly hit 8% in 2023, then spent stretches of 2024 and 2025 above 7%.

In this scenario, mortgage rates enter a holding pattern as the market makes sense of conflicting economic data.

“A 25 basis point cut is almost a sure thing, and the market has baked that into the current rate level,” says Sean P. Salter, an associate professor of finance at Middle Tennessee State University. “I look for rates to remain in the current range until we get some better idea of the true state of the U.S. economy.”

Much of the recent decline in mortgage rates was spurred by the jobs report that came out in early September. It’s unlikely that the Fed’s move will lead to further declines in mortgage rates, says Phil Crescenzo Jr., vice president at Nation One Mortgage Corp.

If this is how the story plays out, it’s not all bad: The recent downturn in rates is getting some buyers and borrowers off the sidelines. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Refinance Index increased 34% in early September from the same week a year ago, and its Purchase Index rose 23%, according to the trade group’s most recent report.

Scenario 3: Mortgage rates fall

Another possibility — and one that loan officers and real estate agents are hoping for — is that mortgage rates keep falling, and that the Fed keeps cutting. It’s a be-careful-what-you-wish-for scenario: Mortgage rates generally rise when the economy is revving, and they typically fall when the economy begins to sputter. So declining rates would probably follow continued weakness in the job market.

Rates at 6% or below wouldn’t be bad news in certain corners. Some discouraged homebuyers could decide to get off the sidelines and resume their home searches. And some of those homeowners who took mortgages at 7.5% could refinance into cheaper debt.

“We’ve seen a consistent stream of data pointing to cooling inflation and a softer labor market, which together create downward pressure on yields,” says Dr. Anthony O. Kellum, president and CEO of Kellum Mortgage in Roseville, Michigan. “The bond market has already started to reflect this sentiment, with investors positioning for the likelihood that the Fed will begin easing later this year. That shift in expectations tends to trickle directly into mortgage rates. While volatility is always possible, especially if unexpected economic reports surface, the overall momentum feels tilted toward slightly lower rates in the near term.”

©2025 Bankrate.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.