How Scholars Lost the Culture War over Texas History

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When a land forgets its legends,
Sees but falsehoods in the past,
When a nation views its sires
In the light of fools and liars—
’Tis a sign of its decline,
And its glories cannot last.
Branches that but blight their roots
Yield no sap for lasting fruit.

During the spring of 2023, members of the Texas State Historical Association (TSHA) gathered in El Paso for their 127th annual meeting. When attendees opened their programs, they found the epigraphic poem above tattooed in the middle of the welcome letter composed by the organization’s executive director, J.P. Bryan—an unwavering traditionalist and the former CEO of the multimillion-dollar company Torch Energy Advisors. 

If the century-old poem appeared out of place for an event that celebrated intellectual inquiry, his statement of two seemingly contradictory goals was even more inexplicable. One expressed the hope “that the above statement of possibility does not become reality in the teaching of Texas history,” the other “that our organization is assured of its rightful calling as the finest state historical organization in this country.”  

The field, of course, cannot have it both ways. University-trained scholars concern themselves with the writing of history that, ideally, examines the past through historical methods designed to find meaning in it; the other side, the one Bryan is on, draws sustenance from the traditional narratives that instill Lone Star pride. 

The traditional chronicle of history that Bryan championed celebrated the process by which “true Texans” wrested the land from “the wilderness, the Indians, and the Mexicans,” as T.R. Fehrenbach articulated decades ago. The overarching idea, an instinctive metanarrative of “right by might,” formed the bedrock for a mostly 19th-century view of a martial past that average Texans seldom questioned. Its originators decided to pursue a narrative arc emphasizing the Texas Revolution and the state’s Western heritage, pushing the Civil War into the background.

As the rest of the former Confederate states continued wallowing in the ennobling aura of the Lost Cause, Texans freed themselves from such saturnine debilities on account of their triumphant role in the “winning of the West.” 

It was not until the last quarter of the 20th century that professional academic historians began bringing to bear the established methodologies of university training to their studies of the Texas past. The two sides were formally defined in 1990, when Texas A&M professors Robert Calvert and Walter Buenger published Texas History and the Move into the Twenty-First Century. Introducing new concepts that challenged the heavy-handed master narrative of the victors’ tale, these research historians effectively declared a rhetorical war on the conventionalcanon. 

William Henry Huddle’s 19th-century painting “The Surrender of Santa Anna,” which is displayed at the Texas Capitol, depicts a key moment in the victors’ version of state history. (Wikipedia Commons)

The pioneering work by this new generation of social historians viewed society from the bottom up, focusing on the lives of ordinary Texans and their experiences. They made clear that the questions university-trained historians asked about the past, and the research required to provide the answers, contrasted in scope, focus, orientation, and conclusions with the public memories and myths held by traditionalists.

Given the impasse between the two sides, the field of Texas history looked precarious, yet everything appeared to be lining up exactly the way the writing of history is supposed to work. There was orthodoxy—the traditional history—butting heads with the antithesis, academic scholarship. Because of their willful detachment from traditional history, however, research historians never made an effort to execute the third step in what should have been a logical triad: creating a new orthodoxy. 

Scholars never invested the intellectual capital necessary to convince laypeople such as Bryan—at least in a way that penetrated the anger-armor of their insecurities—that a society becoming critical of its legends represents the first step toward rehabilitating a more complex story by taking on shades of gray that make their narratives real and more important. Rather than deconstruct it in a way that would educate its casual enthusiasts, scholars mostly ignored traditional history outside of revisionist and whiteness studies. The long game that research historians played depended on the impractical approach of waiting out the natural death of the traditional narrative, a creation story of frontier exceptionalism that was baked into the Texan identity. 

When traditionalists began openly attacking academic scholarship, research historians stayed the course of maintaining separate spheres, refusing even to try setting them straight. When the rhetorical war came, signaled by the poem Bryan introduced at the TSHA’s annual conference, traditionalists punctuated their attacks on academic history with open hostility built up during three decades of scholarship they did not understand. A heated exchange between Bryan and progressive-minded historians over his provocative ode to traditionalism revealed the intellectual distance that separated the two sides from any measure of understanding.

The immediate controversy that the vintage poem stirred up impelled Bryan to avow, “I don’t like their history, and I don’t believe their history.” He continued by insisting that in the version he embraces, westward Anglo expansion and the founding of Texas had the effect of “spreading freedoms for all.” The incendiary declaration was rebutted in an open letter, signed by 10 past TSHA presidents, who asked how Bryan, a proud descendant of Texan founding father Stephen F. Austin through a nephew, could “seriously contend that his pioneer great-great-grandfather settled on his Brazoria County plantation with thirty-eight slaves in order to secure ‘freedoms for all.’”

Actually, that is such an easy question to answer that it raises reservations about the interpretive clarity scholars brought to the table in this culture war. Given a traditionalist narrative that extolled the violent taking of the land, how else could their society be sustained than at the expense of everyone who was not Anglo and male?

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The tone of Bryan’s machinations found a kindred pairing with the creation of the Texas History Trust (THT), which began producing provocative videos condemning progressive scholarship. Michelle Haas, a TSHA member and editor of Copano Bay Press, narrated for THT the brief series “unMakers of Texas History.” Her combative style vilified the work of progressive scholars, even singling out some leading Texas historians for mocking derision.

For people such as Haas, Bryan, and their close supporters, this contest with progressive-leaning scholars was not about understanding the past; it was about power and keeping their soldiers on their side of the rhetorical battle lines. 

When Haas pilloried Buenger, then-  chief historian of the TSHA, Buenger responded in part by suggesting that “historians stay humble [and] avoid treating those who seem wrong-headed with disdain.” Rather than pushing back or waiting out the interregnum, scholars began dropping their memberships in the TSHA, effectively surrendering the institutional machinery of the state’s historical organization to traditionalists.

The defections had become so numerous by the fall of 2023 that Ben Johnson, a Loyola professor and former board member of the TSHA, polled like-minded Texas historians about the possibility of forming a counter-organization. The overwhelming response resulted in the creation of the Alliance for Texas History, which also attracted enthusiasts who would maintain memberships in both bodies. That next spring, on April 28, members of the Alliance gathered at Texas Christian University (TCU) in Fort Worth, where they held a one-day symposium at a small but sold-out auditorium. Gregg Cantrell, a highly regarded Texas historian who held an endowed chair at TCU, lent his prestige to the organization by becoming its interim president. The meeting’s success led to organizing a full conference that met this spring as well as a call for papers to be published in a new scholarly journal.

Even before traditionalists commandeered the state’s primary historical organization in 2023, two other groups had already launched endeavors to reshape the narrative of the state’s past. The first,the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF), initiated the so-called 1836 Project. The title signified a conservative response to the liberal 1619 Project, introduced in 2019 by journalists, historians, and artists who sought to reframe a new national narrative around slavery and its lingering influence. Hearkening to the year of Texas independence from Mexico, the stated purpose of the 1836 Project was to establish “an advisory committee to promote patriotic education and increase awareness of the Texas values that continue to stimulate boundless prosperity across this state.”  

The work of TPPF found consonance in another methodical undertaking, the Texas Center at Schreiner University in Kerrville, founded in 2020. Its mission proposed to foster “dialogue and understanding among Texans from all walks of life.” To guide the enterprise, the center selected Don Frazier, a “narrative historian” and TCU Ph.D. who had earlier organized and managed the McWhiney Foundation, which featured the State House Press, dedicated to publishing scholarly books with a traditionalist approach to history.

As TPPF and the Texas Center competed with real scholarship, the hard-right turn signaled by the 2024 elections turbocharged challenges to academic history in Texas. Soon, new state policies assailed programs that valued diversity, equity, and inclusion in the workplace. In May, Governor Greg Abbott signed into law Senate Bill 37, which shifts the power to make hiring and curriculum decisions away from faculty and toward state-appointed governing boards. Scholars are also contending with a more general, interpretive assault on their work embodied in President Donald Trump’s recent executive order “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History.”

If these provocative actions caught scholars flat-footed, yet another challenge to the work of research historians is taking shape. Just as a committee of Texans during the 1930s anticipated their centennial by manufacturing an enduring master narrative, traditionalists today seem to be preparing for the 2036 bicentennial by retooling their grand thesis to fit present-day conditions. The dismissive contempt that university-trained scholars have expressed for the 1836 Project and the Texas Center seems to have left them unmindful of an interpretive sea change. Traditionalists have expanded the scope of their history, venturing beyond the state’s formative development and into the present age. Driving their conservative efforts is a sweeping but narrow reinterpretation of the Texas past: Sanitized—and deceptively less whitened—it proposes that “Texas history presents a record of opportunities and obstacles.”

Such a perspective maintains the equation of celebrating Texas history rather than seeking understanding. It can spotlight someone such as post-WWI-era pilot Bessie Coleman and imply that being Black and a woman were merely obstacles standing in the way of her achievements. This kind of approach recasts the oppressive depth of social, economic, and political inequities as surmountable barriers, minimizing the more injurious experiences for others subjugated by systemic institutional injustice. 

This anecdotal approach that views Texas history as “a record of opportunities and obstacles,” however, does little to help us truly understand who present-day Texans are becoming as a people. At a time of epochal transition, that can be done only by placing the history of Texans excised from the traditional history in the center of the narrative. These include Texans of color, women of every ethnicity, and even Anglo men whose ideas, values, or associations placed them at odds with the ruling order. Such a construction is a necessary part of the process to reach an even more expansive view of the past. And it is one that works against the interests of traditionalists and the power elite.

Robert J. Onderdonk’s 1903 “The Fall of the Alamo,” which is displayed in the governor’s mansion, depicts a heroic, rifle-wielding Davy Crockett in line with traditionalist Texas history. (Wikipedia)

So, what then is the outlook for the near future of Texas history? The progressive tide that swept American society circa 2020 has been beaten back; even so, the minute that progressive scholars today begin to acknowledge the impediments that allowed traditionalists to overtake them, the path ahead will open.

Seven years ago, I argued that “without piecing together grand narratives—which, although imperfect, at least include as a feature a broad understanding of how constructs of power and language are manufactured and at what costs their proponents maintain them—progressive scholars might as well retreat into those cavernous halls of academe, where they can write discourses for consumption by likeminded colleagues. Wider audiences … will never be the wiser.” What was intended as exaggerated anxiety ended up coming into view when so many academics dropped their memberships in the TSHA and created the Alliance for Texas History.

Their dramatic exodus has diminished the work of the TSHA, and—for better or worse—the intellectual well-being of the field itself now rides on the fate of the Alliance. Whether this ends up representing a strategic retreat for academics or an admission of failure will depend on the way thinking people in this contest respond to this moment in time. Will scholars learn from their past mistakes, and will open-minded workaday Texans listen if they do?

Those who would establish a new usable past that informs both sides must exercise a degree of intellectual humility that balances the popular needs and sensitivities of traditionalists who want to celebrate the historical journey and the demanding obligations of scholarship that looks critically for meaning along every step of the way. After 35 years of giving traditionalists scant attention, getting the general public to this balanced place will involve a steep learning curve. Such a difficult reckoning will not come soon. But there is no other suitable way forward.

The post How Scholars Lost the Culture War over Texas History appeared first on The Texas Observer.

Residents urge St. Paul to demolish Midway’s vacant CVS

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The CVS Pharmacy building anchoring the corner of University and Snelling avenues opened as new construction in 2007, only to temporarily close just 13 years later when riots rocked the Midway in 2020.

It reopened months later, only to shut down again forever in April 2022. Fast forward three years, and rather than draw energy and investment to a major business intersection, the sizable building remains a shuttered emblem of the challenges facing urban American retail, the Midway and growing corners of St. Paul.

Alarmed by its neglect, a growing drumbeat of residents, elected officials and even business advocates are calling for 499 Snelling Ave. N. to be torn down, the first step, they hope, toward removing blight and drawing the interest of private developers. Spanning 15,000 square feet, the building hosts a drive-through and ample parking lot, but not much promise in the eyes of locals.

“It’s a real blemish to leave it at that corner,” said developer and St. Paul resident Steve Wellington, who in November 2021 opened the market-rate Pitch apartments little more than a block away at Snelling and Shields avenue, just across from Allianz Field.

Ownership unclear

Among the complications, acknowledged Wellington, is it remains unclear who exactly owns the vacant CVS building, which is registered in property records to a limited liability corporation of ambiguous title (“Scp 2005 C21 045 Llc”) with a post office box in Spokane, Wash.

“It’s complicated. We would like to know who owns the CVS, too,” Wellington said. “Typically they’re bought by out-of-town people who ignore them. We’ve seen the CVS in Brooklyn Park sit vacant for a long time.”

CVS closed some 900 stores from 2022 through 2024, and was expected to close another 270 stores in 2025 alone, according to published news reports citing its annual report last February.

An election-year issue

Following frequent complaints of loitering and break-ins, the city’s Department of Safety and Inspections declared 499 Snelling Ave. N. an official nuisance site this summer, which makes it subject to demolition if conditions don’t improve. While condemnations are not uncommon, the city does not casually tear down properties, especially prominent ones.

Fencing added in the past year has discouraged some vagrancy. Still, in a mayoral election year, the fate of CVS has become the subject of campaign politics, raising its profile.

“It’s time to either fix up or tear down that CVS,” said St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter, during a mayoral forum hosted Sept. 17 by the League of Women Voters St. Paul.

The mayor’s statement was quickly met by a retort from state Rep. Kaohly Her, Carter’s most prominent challenger, who accused City Hall of having no idea who the actual building owner was. She also called attention to the exit last month of the Midway’s 24-hour Cub Foods, which suffered a slow and public decline.

“It is because we do business poorly,” Her said at the time. “We are letting businesses close, and not having conversations with them, and then we are surprised when there is blight in our city.”

Change could be in store, so to speak.

Hearing to abate or demolish

The city’s legislative hearing officer will host a hearing Tuesday morning to discuss the CVS property, which has generated more than 100 complaints about trash, vandalism, break-ins, drug use and “thousands of discarded sharps/foils,” according to a written statement from the Hamline-Midway Coalition.

“The decision is whether to abate the property, or demolish it,” said Justin Lewandowski, an organizer with the neighborhood group, which has been tracking concerns about the CVS and hosting community forums about the Midway.

As of Friday, the coalition is now encouraging residents to contact the city and demand demolition.

“This building, in its current state, is unsafe, unsightly, and unfit for our neighborhood,” reads the coalition’s statement, issued Friday. “It diminishes the aesthetics of the Snelling-University intersection, erodes community pride, and undermines the sense of safety and dignity neighbors deserve to feel in Hamline-Midway.”

With CVS and other Midway challenges in mind, the Hamline-Midway Coalition joined the Union Park District Council, Midway Chamber of Commerce, African Economic Development Solutions and other partners this summer in launching the Snelling-University Alliance, which hopes to jointly put pressure on the city to invest in the Midway and hold owners of problem properties accountable.

Lewandowski noted that the coalition offices in the Spruce Tree Centre building across University Avenue, from which they have a clear bird’s eye view of the CVS rooftop and exterior damages caused by intruders who have picked it clean.

“The HVAC system has been destroyed,” he said. “There’s lack of any faith that the current owners of that space are going to keep it up if any abatement orders are fulfilled.”

Following Tuesday’s legislative hearing, a subsequent hearing is possible before the St. Paul City Council on Nov. 5.

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Trump’s big bill is prompting urgent action in some Democratic states, but not in Republican ones

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By DAVID A. LIEB, Associated Press

New Mexico lawmakers are to open a special session Wednesday to boost funding for food assistance and rural health care — actions the Democratic governor contends are needed to “minimize the damage from President Trump’s disastrous bill” cutting federal taxes and spending.

The special session follows one in Colorado, where the Democratic governor asserted Trump’s tax cuts wreaked havoc on the state’s budget. Oregon’s Democratic officials also are wrestling with whether a special session is needed. And California Democrats recently passed new spending measures meant to counteract Trump’s big bill.

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Nothing like that is happening in Republican-led states.

The diverging responses highlight the partisan schism over Trump’s signature legislative accomplishment of his second term and raise the question: Are Republican-led states ignoring the financial fallout, or are Democratic-led states overstating the urgency?

“Probably Democrats are doing a little bit for grandstanding,” said Steven Rogers, an associate political science professor at Saint Louis University who focuses on state governments.

“On the Republican side, they may also just be OK with it — or they don’t want to poke the Trump bear,” Rogers said.

The sweeping new law, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” by Republicans, is likely to affect some states more than others. Federal tax cuts could reduce revenues for states that link their own income taxes to the federal code, starting with 2025 tax returns.

Federal spending reductions on Medicaid and food benefits also could cause states to spend more of their own money on social safety net programs. But new Medicaid work requirements, which are among the most prominent changes, don’t begin until 2027. Administrative cost shifts to states for food stamps begin in October 2026, with additional performance-based cost shifts in subsequent years.

New Mexico officials are taking ‘proactive’ steps

Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has called upon New Mexico lawmakers to preemptively earmark more money this fiscal year toward food assistance and rural health care.

FILE – Democratic New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham speaks at a news conference, March 22, 2025, in Santa Fe, N.M. (AP Photo/Morgan Lee, File)

Lawmakers also are looking to expand state subsidies for health insurance policies bought through the Affordable Care Act exchange, which covers about 75,000 residents. They point to the potential for enhanced federal subsidies to expire at the end of this year.

“We’re not going to sit idly and watch that disaster happen,” said Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth.

Though New Mexico expects to lose about $200 million annually because of new federal tax cuts, starting this fiscal year, it still has a large surplus thanks to booming oil production.

“We’re in a position fiscally to be able to be proactive,” Wirth said, “and really try and hold New Mexicans as harmless as we can to these cuts that are coming.”

California boosts spending for food programs

Legislation recently signed by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom provides $255 million for California’s response to Trump’s big bill and other federal policy changes. That includes $84 million to try to reduce errors in benefit payments in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. Those food benefits currently are fully covered by the federal government, but states with error rates greater than 6% could have to pay part of the cost starting in October 2027.

FILE – Mara Sleeter, marketing and communications project manager, stands near boxes of juice while being interviewed in the San Francisco-Marin Food Bank warehouse in San Francisco, July 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File)

Trump’s big bill also expands work requirements for adults participating SNAP, which is expected to force some people off the program in the coming months. The California legislation provides $40 million for counties to implement the new SNAP requirements and pumps $20 million into emergency food banks, a one-third increase over previously approved state funding.

“We have been as diligent, as strategic as we can to backfill as much of those dollars as we can,” Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, a Democrat, told The Associated Press.

The new spending comes as California budget officials warn of a looming multibillion-dollar deficit.

Colorado and Oregon cite tax cuts as a cause for action

Because their tax codes are closely linked to the federal one, most of the new federal tax breaks automatically apply to state income taxes in Colorado and Oregon.

In August, Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis became the first to call lawmakers into special session while citing Trump’s bill. His administration said the federal tax cuts blew an estimated $783 million hole in the current state budget.

FILE – Colorado Gov. Jared Polis speaks to the National Governors Association at the Broadmoor Hotel in Colorado Springs, Colo., July 25, 2025. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)

The Democratic-led Legislature filled part of that gap by eliminating some corporate tax breaks and authorizing the sale of state tax credits to raise revenue.

In Oregon, Democratic officials are weighing whether to decouple from some of Trump’s tax changes to avoid losing hundreds of millions of state tax dollars. Such a move could allow the state to continue taxing tips and overtime wages.

“It is a very politically risky bill to pass, let alone have a special session again for ANOTHER tax vote,” Democratic state Rep. Rob Nosse said in a recent newsletter. “But at the same time it will allow us to stave off some of the cuts coming to health care and to food stamps.”

Republicans see no urgency from revenue losses

Like Colorado and Oregon, the Republican-led states of Iowa, Montana and North Dakota also use “federal taxable income” as the starting point for their state taxes and automatically incorporate federal tax changes. Yet officials there haven’t raised major concerns.

Montana stands to lose an estimated $114 million annually as a result of the new tax cuts. But lawmakers likely can wait until their next regular session in 2027 to address any impacts, said Republican state Rep. Larry Brewster, chair of the Legislature’s interim revenue committee.

“I think it’s a concern, but I don’t think it’s an urgent problem for us,” he said.

Leaders of the North Dakota Legislature, which isn’t scheduled to meet until 2027, are discussing holding a session early next year, but not because of federal tax cuts. Rather, lawmakers would decide how to spend the state’s share of $50 billion of rural health care grants included in Trump’s big bill.

Iowa’s conformity to the federal tax code could cost its general fund $437 million this fiscal year, according to the state revenue department. The state’s finances also could suffer from Trump’s trade war with China, a top export market for farmers. The state still has billions of dollars in reserves.

“We’re in a good position to weather some of the ag and some of the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill,” Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds said, “but we also have to be mindful as we move forward.”

Associated Press writers Jack Dura in Bismarck, North Dakota; Hannah Fingerhut in Des Moines, Iowa; Morgan Lee in Santa Fe, New Mexico; Trân Nguyễn in Sacramento, California; and Claire Rush in Portland, Oregon contributed.

Airspace violations force NATO to tread a tightrope, deterring Russia without hiking tensions

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By LORNE COOK, Associated Press

BRUSSELS (AP) — NATO is stepping up aerial surveillance in the Baltic Sea, while France, Germany and Sweden are bolstering Denmark’s air defenses ahead of two summits in Copenhagen this week over a series of troubling drone incidents near the country’s airports and military bases.

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The number of serious airspace violations in Europe has spiked this month, including by Russian warplanes. But not all NATO allies agree on how to respond. Poland is ready to use lethal force. Others say that must only be a last resort.

Regardless of who is to blame in Denmark, European leaders believe that Russia is testing NATO. Military planners in Moscow can observe how Western forces react, and countering intrusions by relatively cheap drones is a financial burden on the allies.

In the wake of the drone incident in Poland, NATO launched operation Eastern Sentry, with Britain among the allies to send more air defense equipment.

However, these deployments might also deprive Ukraine of the air defense systems it badly needs from its allies. NATO must tread a tightrope in its response.

The use of lethal force

Poland’s message is blunt. It intends to shoot down intruders over its territory.

“If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on NATO territory, please don’t come here to whine about it,” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski told Russia’s U.N. delegation last week. “You have been warned.”

Poland activated its air defenses over the weekend during a major Russian attack on Ukraine.

Defense is a national prerogative, even within the world’s biggest military alliance. Poland or Finland, say, might use force to defend their territory. U.S. President Donald Trump has agreed that European countries should be able to shoot intruders down.

The responsibility for that act would lie with the nation concerned. NATO, though, is likely to be more cautious in any joint operation using aircraft and equipment drawn from across the 32-country alliance.

“We have to act decisively and quickly,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said last week, but he underlined that it’s important to “always assess the threat levels” to see whether force is necessary.

NATO’s top military officer decides

NATO’s supreme commander in Europe, U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, manages airspace violations.

A mobile radar installation is seen at the Danish military site on Amager, Pionegaarden, near the village of Dragoer and on the coast of Oresund, the sea between Denmark and Sweden, on Friday, Sept. 26, 2025. (Steven Knap/Ritzau Scanpix via AP)

NATO’s rules of engagement are classified, but Grynkewich knows what arms and ammunition he has and what restrictions allies might place on their use. More than 30 air bases have aircraft on standby.

His choice would be based on intelligence about the threat posed. It would involve understanding the aircraft’s intent and weaponry, and the risk it — or a shootdown — might represent to NATO forces, civilians and infrastructure.

The response should also be proportionate. Spending millions of dollars to deter relatively cheap drones is not sustainable. Sometimes it’s best just to escort aircraft away, as NATO did when three Russian jets flew into Estonian airspace.

“Each airspace incursion puts NATO in a bind,” Rafael Loss from the European Council on Foreign Relations said in a security analysis.

“If they intercept (and potentially engage) the intruders, they risk providing Russia with valuable insights about NATO’s reaction times and engagement procedures. If they ignore them, it risks inviting ever-escalating Russian violations of allied airspace,” he said.

Pressure on pilots

Retired French Navy Capt. Pierre-Henri Chuet, who flew Super Étendard and Rafale fighter jets for the French Navy, said the stress on pilots increases the risk of miscalculation and even actual confrontation.

“Pilots are going to have to be very careful. And the chain of command is going to have to be extra careful on the ways they brief pilots to know what is a hostile act, what is a hostile intent, what is an aggression, and what isn’t,” Chuet said in an Associated Press phone interview.

“Opening fire is really, really, really, really the last resort,” he said.

The price of miscalculation

An overreaction could incur even greater costs. Russia’s ambassador to France, Alexei Meshkov, has already warned that downing a Russian aircraft would trigger a war, and NATO does not want to be dragged into conflict with a nuclear armed adversary.

Already in 2015, Russia and NATO ally Turkey came to the brink of open conflict after a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian border, killing its pilot. Russia retaliated with sanctions.

In 1983, a Korean Airlines flight was shot down with an air-to-air missile after veering into Soviet airspace, killing all 269 people on board. It caused a major spike in tensions between the Soviet Union and the West.

The value of deterrence

Ultimately, NATO’s ability to prevent airspace violations rests on the strength of its deterrent effect: not just its military might but also the political will to use the weapons at its disposal.

Right now, though, U.S. leadership appears reticent. Coincidentally or not, the serious airspace violations have happened since Trump’s summit with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August, when the U.S. leader dropped his demand for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

In response to the drone incident in Poland, Trump said that it “could have been a mistake.” Last week he said the U.S. would “continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them,” almost as if America were not a member.

And so far, the United States has not sent military equipment to help counter the airspace violations.

“Through these successive incursions, Putin has shown he is undeterred. After all, by flaunting mischief at low cost, Putin aims to leave Europeans — lacking resolute American backing — with only bad options,” Loss said.

AP Writer John Leicester in Paris contributed to this report.