A Caucus, if You Can Keep It

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In the leadup to Texas’ 89th legislative session, the Republican leadership apparatus was under siege and the party in open warfare as the sitting House Speaker Dade Phelan decided not to seek another term with the gavel. 

This power vacuum created unbridled chaos among the GOP ranks, largely divided between those who aligned with Phelan and more mainstream House Republicans, and those right-wingers, including many who had just won their seats by ousting incumbents, who were seeking a total upheaval of the status quo. 

In the middle were 62 Democrats.

Ever since Republican Speaker Tom Craddick was dethroned in January 2009, the Democratic caucus has delivered the decisive votes to choose the speaker. First for the more moderate Joe Straus, then Dennis Bonnen, and then Phelan. 

This has been the Democrats’ modus operandi: maximizing their minimal leverage to prevent a more hardline conservative takeover of House leadership—to secure a seat at the speaker’s table, maybe a handful of committee chairmanships, and at least some semblance of negotiating power on policy matters. Over the last decade, this also preserved the House as a bulwark against the increasingly extreme Senate of Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick.

At a high level, this has allowed Democrats to negotiate some concessions and horsetrading on legislation, to kill some very bad bills and make others better. But as the GOP has grown ever brasher in its pursuit of a radical conservative agenda, the fruits of that inside strategy have become ever-less bountiful. 

In late 2024, in the midst of the all-out speaker battle, Democrats found themselves with a chance to play things differently. They could stand by and watch the fractured Republican ranks duke it out, withholding their support until a speaker candidate met their demands—or otherwise they’d simply cast their votes for a Democratic speaker. For a moment, it looked like that’s what they might actually do. 

Then came the stampede. A couple dozen Democrats, many of whom had been a part of Team Phelan, lined up behind Dustin Burrows, a top lieutenant for the prior two speakers—and then came a dozen or so more. Burrows was perhaps an odd choice for Dems to rally around. The Lubbock Republican had carried the “death star” legislation to gut local control the previous session, and he was a staunch supporter of school vouchers.

Gene Wu, House Democratic caucus chair, on the floor in May (Jordan Vonderhaar for the Texas Observer)

The case made by the so-called Burrowcrats was that he was the lesser evil—or, at least, the devil they knew—while his challenger and the GOP caucus choice, David Cook, was a more unknown commodity that the party’s far-right faction had latched onto. In early December, Burrows announced he had the votes to win the speakership: 38 Democrats plus 38 Republicans. (A smaller bloc of mostly progressive members fought against this strategy and declined to get in line.)

“Many members came to the obvious conclusion that we must have a speaker who would not simply trample all over the minority and take a pledge that says, we will not pass any of your bills—we won’t even work on your bills—until we pass every single one of our bills,” the newly elected Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu told the Texas Tribune at the time. 

But it was never clear exactly what, if anything, the Burrowcrats had secured in exchange for their support beyond this vague understanding that he would not entirely block Democrats from power. And it certainly wasn’t clear that they’d secured any significant promise on the session’s most meaningful issue: vouchers. In fact, Burrows declared right out of the gate that the House had the votes and would pass the bill.

Fast forward to June 2, sine die. Dan Patrick declared that the Texas Senate had just completed its most conservative and successful session in history as the upper chamber nearly ran the table on his priority legislation and he had his way with the House on many key issues, including a total ban on THC hemp products and a litany of red-meat social conservative legislation. 

Governor Greg Abbott had already signed his white whale, the school vouchers bill, in early May and was about to declare victory on his long-coveted goal of limiting access to bail. And Republicans successfully passed legislation to provide several billion dollars more to once again modestly ease the burden of local property taxes on homeowners.   

Abbott had ensured that so-called school choice was likely a foregone conclusion this session, but perhaps Democrats could have at least pushed the speaker to hold out on vouchers as a bargaining chip until the Senate had played nice on a public school funding package (which had died last session because Abbott tethered it to vouchers and which the House paired again with vouchers as a “Texas two-step.”) Instead, the speaker’s decision to pass both the funding and privatization bills early handed all leverage over to Patrick, who later seized control of the details of the school finance legislation.

To be fair, the House did manage to moderate some bills, including on bail reform and tenant rights, and kill others, including an ugly tort reform bill and a craven abortion-pill bounty hunter bill. And Democrats played some part in this.

All told, things could have gone worse, but the power structure solidified this session isn’t promising: There’s little evidence to believe, if Abbott and Patrick decided to play hardball on some of this year’s failed conservative legislation, that the House would or Democrats could successfully resist. And even within the House there are signs the GOP speaker can peel off Democrats as needed when he has a pet project of his own.

For instance, some 30-plus Dems supplied the necessary support for constitutional amendment resolutions, which need 100 votes, to ban any future possibility of state taxes on securities transactions and capital gains, highly unlikely prospects in Texas but ones that Republicans wanted to pass as a show of fealty to the titans of Dallas’ growing “Y’all Street.” 

The factions within the Democratic caucus are not primarily along ideological lines but more about legislative strategy: whether to quietly work within the power structure and influence the margins, or to loudly confront the power structure and make the party’s own agenda front and center.

While some Democratic members performed fierce opposition to school vouchers, along with anti-immigrant and anti-DEI legislation, the feeling that this was hollow theater was particularly strong in this year of Abbott, Patrick, and Trump dominance. 

And more and more, Democrats have responded to the growing strain of anti-corporate populism within the Texas GOP by themselves co-opting old pro-business Texas Miracle messaging, by going along willingly with the governor’s Elon Musk-inspired push to turn Texas into a corporate haven. 

On the matter of property tax relief—perhaps the most important, broadly salient policy issue in the state—the policy divide was largely between the two Republican-run chambers, not the two parties. Democrats did not offer any sort of alternative policy message of their own, such as demanding that the state exclude downtown skyscrapers or Gulf Coast refineries from the property tax cuts, or ensure that the roughly one-third of Texas households that are renters are also provided some semblance of direct relief. 

Perhaps it’s time for House Democrats to toss out the old playbook that centers around speaker selection—one that increasingly comes at the expense of diluting Democratic politics.

Having spent so long as the minority party in the Texas Capitol, Democrats’ emphasis on playing an inside game—to quietly make some bad bills less bad, while individual members get some traction on their own piecemeal legislation—has seemingly become the consuming identity of the party. 

Still, in that time, abortion has become near-totally outlawed. The public education system has been pushed to the brink and local school districts made the target of fear-mongering and social conservative dictates. The floodgates of publicly funded privatization have been opened with the passage of vouchers. Medicaid, far from being expanded, is hollowed out. Corporate welfare programs run rampant. 

And yet, Democrats are no closer to controlling the Texas House, to say nothing of statewide office, than they were 10 years ago. 

The time may have come for Democrats in the Legislature to withhold their cooperation, sacrifice some of the bipartisan chumminess that prevails in the House, and focus on building a party that knows why Texans should vote for it.

The post A Caucus, if You Can Keep It appeared first on The Texas Observer.

Trump is at a moment of choosing as Israel looks for more US help crushing Iran’s nuclear program

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By AAMER MADHANI and CHRIS MEGERIAN

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump in about eight hours went from suggesting a nuclear deal with Iran remained “achievable” to urging Tehran’s 9.5 million residents to flee for their lives as he cut short his visit to an international summit to return to Washington for urgent talks with his national security team.

Trump arrived at the White House early Tuesday at a moment of choosing in his presidency. Israel, with five days of missile strikes, has done considerable damage to Iran and believes it can now deal a permanent blow to Tehran’s nuclear program — particularly if it gets a little more help from the Republican president.

But deepening American involvement, perhaps by providing the Israelis with bunker-busting bombs to penetrate Iranian nuclear sites built deep underground or offering other direct U.S. military support, comes with enormous political risk for Trump.

Trump, as he made his way back to Washington, expressed frustration with Iranian leaders for failing to reach an agreement. He said he was now looking for “a real end” to the conflict and a “complete give-up” of Tehran’s nuclear program.

“They should have done the deal. I told them, ‘Do the deal,’” Trump told reporters on Air Force One. “So I don’t know. I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate.”

Iran has insisted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, and U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Tehran is not actively pursuing a bomb.

Trump, who planned to meet with advisers in the Situation Room, appears to be gradually building the public case for a more direct American role in the conflict. His shift in tone comes as the U.S. has repositioned warships and military aircraft in the region to respond if the conflict between Israel and Iran further escalates.

Trump made an early departure from G7

The White House announced Monday, while Trump was at the Group of Seven summit in the Canadian Rockies, that he would cut his trip short.

“Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON,” he wrote on social media. “I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

Asked about his evacuation comment aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters: “I just want people to be safe.”

“We’re looking at better than a ceasefire. We’re not looking for a ceasefire,” Trump said.

Trump said he wasn’t ruling out a diplomatic option and he could send Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with the Iranians.

He also dismissed congressional testimony from National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard, who told lawmakers in March that U.S. spy agencies did not believe Iran was building a nuclear weapon.

“I don’t care what she said,” Trump said. “I think they were very close to having it.”

Speculation grows that Trump may be tilting toward more direct involvement

The Israelis say their offensive has eviscerated Iran’s air defenses and they can now strike targets across the country at will. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the Israeli bombardment will continue until Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missiles are destroyed.

So far, Israel has targeted multiple Iranian nuclear program sites but has not been able to destroy Iran’s Fordo uranium enrichment facility.

The site is buried deep underground — and to eliminate it, Israel may need the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which uses its weight and sheer kinetic force to reach deeply buried targets and then explode. But Israel does not have the munition or the bomber needed to deliver it — the penetrator is currently delivered by the B-2 stealth bomber.

Israel’s own defenses remain largely intact in the face of Iran’s retaliatory strikes, but some of Tehran’s missiles are getting through and having deadly impact.

The White House dispatched Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for a prime-time TV appearance as speculation grows about whether Trump could be tilting toward more direct U.S. involvement. Hegseth told Fox News Channel that “of course” Trump wanted to see a deal made to curb Iran’s nuclear program.

“His position has not changed,” Hegseth said. “What you’re watching in real time is peace through strength and America first. Our job is to be strong. We are postured defensively in the region to be strong in pursuit of a peace deal. And we certainly hope that’s what happens here.”

Trump continues to push Iran to negotiate on its nuclear program

Trump, meanwhile, during an exchange with reporters on the sidelines of the G7, declined to say what it would take for the U.S. to get more directly involved. Instead, he continued to press Iran on negotiations over its nuclear program.

“They should talk, and they should talk immediately,” Trump said during a bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. He added, “I’d say Iran is not winning this war.”

To be certain, Trump in the days-old conflict has sought to restrain Netanyahu. He rejected a plan presented by Israel to the U.S. to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter, who was not authorized to comment on the sensitive matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The Israelis had informed the Trump administration in recent days that they had developed a credible plan to kill Khamenei.

A widening schism over Iran among Trump’s MAGA supporters

Trump bristled when asked about some of his MAGA faithful, including conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, who have suggested that further U.S. involvement would be a betrayal to supporters who were drawn to his promise to end U.S. involvement in expensive and endless wars.

“Somebody please explain to kooky Tucker Carlson that,’ IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!’” the president wrote on social media.

Other prominent Trump supporters have also raised concerns about how far the president should go in backing Israel.

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Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk are among prominent Trump World allies who have noted that voters backed Trump because he promised not to entangle the nation in foreign clashes and to be wary of expanding U.S. involvement in the Mideast conflict.

He ran on a promise to quickly end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine but has struggled to find an endgame to either.

But there are also Trump backers, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who are making the case that this is Trump’s moment to deliver a decisive blow to Iran. Graham is calling for Trump to “go all-in” in backing Israel and destroying Iran’s nuclear program.

Associated Press writers Josh Boak, Tara Copp, Darlene Superville and Will Weissert contributed to this report.

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs probably won’t testify as defense says its case could be less than 2 days

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By MICHAEL R. SISAK and LARRY NEUMEISTER

NEW YORK (AP) — The possibility that music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs might testify at his federal sex trafficking trial all but vanished Tuesday after his lawyer predicted a defense presentation lasting as little as two days and a judge said jurors could begin deliberations as early as next week.

Attorney Marc Agnifilo offered the hint when Judge Arun Subramanian asked him for an estimate on the length of the defense case, and the attorney said their presentation could last less than two days — but not more than five.

If Combs testified, it was likely his testimony would take longer than a week. Testimony by two of his former girlfriends consumed two of the trial’s six weeks.

Combs, 55, has pleaded not guilty to sex trafficking and racketeering conspiracy charges. He has been jailed at a federal lockup in Brooklyn since his September arrest at a Manhattan hotel.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Maurene Comey said prosecutors would rest as early as Wednesday and no later than Friday morning.

The estimates were provided Tuesday after the irate judge scolded prosecutors and defense lawyers, saying information about a closed court proceeding involving a juror last Friday had leaked to a media outlet.

The judge said he believed someone who was at the sealed court hearing violated his secrecy order. In the future, Subramanian said, he would hold Comey and Agnifilo responsible for any slipups, and any violations of his orders could result in criminal contempt penalties “at the most extreme level.”

“This is the only warning I will give,” he said.

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Meanwhile, prosecutors resumed showing jurors evidence Tuesday of text messages, phone calls, hotel records to support charges that Combs oversaw a racketeering conspiracy that utilized his employees and associates and his stature in the hip-hop industry to help him control and abuse women, including two former girlfriends.

Ex-girlfriends Casandra “ Cassie ” Ventura and a woman who testified under the pseudonym “ Jane ” told jurors that Combs used threats and monetary incentives to coerce them into frequent multi-day sex marathons where Combs watched, directed and sometimes filmed them engaging with male sex workers.

Defense lawyers say prosecutors were trying to criminalize consenting sex between adults by targeting Combs.

Ventura’s relationship with Combs lasted from 2007 to 2018 while Jane dated him from 2021 until his arrest last fall.

Abortion clinics are closing even in states where abortion is legal. More cuts could be coming

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By GEOFF MULVIHILL

The abortion funding system across the U.S. is battered three years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and allowed states to enforce bans.

An initial surge of donations has subsided, scores of clinics have closed and advocates fear that federal policy changes will result in more shutting down.

“We’re all collectively struggling,” said Ramsie Monk, director of development at the Women’s Health Centers of West Virginia and Maryland, which opened a clinic in 2023 in western Maryland after abortion was banned in West Virginia.

“I honestly don’t know if it’s a sustainable model,” said Mercedes Sanchez, executive director at the Cedar River Clinics in Washington. “Clinics, providers, funds are all very committed to making sure people can access care, but it is definitely going to be more of a challenge.”

Bans in some states mean travel has become a bigger part of obtaining an abortion, bring a host of costs.

A mitigating factor is that most abortions are now done with medications. They can be prescribed by telehealth, including to women in states where abortion is banned. But they can’t be used in every case, some women prefer procedures, and there are challenges to the legality of pills and how they’re prescribed.

Abortion isn’t funded like other health care

Not all private insurance plans cover abortions. Federal taxpayer funds cannot be used for abortions, but state Medicaid funds cover them in some places. And a network of private funding helps cover procedures or travel and other costs.

The increase in contributions that followed the 2022 Supreme Court ruling has declined for most funds and clinics. “The resources have not kept pace with demand continuing to surge,” Lynn McCann-Yeh, co-executive director of the Baltimore Abortion Fund.

With bans on abortion at all stages of pregnancy now being enforced in 12 states and bans at about six weeks’ gestation being enforced in four others, travel for abortion has become more frequent. Costs for each trip can include plane tickets or gas for long drives, meals, hotels and child care — all on top of clinic fees.

Last year, the National Abortion Federation’s hotline fund reduced the portion of clinic costs it covers for people with financial needs to 30% from 50% so it could help more people as demand increased. The group’s says travel costs now average over $1,000 per person.

Travel needs have made the job for abortion funds not only more expensive but more intricate.

Before the Texas ban started in 2021, Fund Texas Choice got about 40 calls a month, executive director Anna Rupani said. Now, it’s over 200. And assisting each caller can take more time because they involve arranging flights and hotels, not just lining up rides to clinics in the state.

Some people cobble together money from a hodgepodge of groups to pay for an abortion. Grace McGarry, who manages the phone line for Whole Woman’s Health, which operates five clinics across the U.S., said he talked to a patient who was getting aid from nine different groups.

Clinics have closed, even in states without new bans

Since the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, I Need An A, which operates a website dedicated to providing information about abortion options, has tallied 105 clinics closing.

Twenty-nine closures were in states where abortion is now banned at all stages of pregnancy. Eleven were in states where it’s banned at about six weeks’ gestation, before many women realize they’re pregnant. But 65 of the closures were in other states.

At the same time, 34 clinics have opened anew or moved to states where abortion is legal.

“Each and every one of those has been a blow to that community that hasn’t been refilled,” said Rebecca Nall, the founder of I Need An A.

Planned Parenthood North Central States announced in May that it would close eight locations in Iowa and Minnesota while expanding services at some other clinics.

Ruth Richardson, the CEO of that Planned Parenthood affiliate, said the reorganization recognizes that the number of abortions in Iowa plummeted after the state started enforcing its strict abortion law. It also reflects that the regional group’s overall budget is down.

“We’ve got the compounded challenges of the fact that sexual and reproductive health care has been politicized in this environment,” she said.

Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life America, said in a statement that the closures are warranted: “Planned Parenthood’s focus is squarely on abortions, gender transitions and political spending.”

The federal government has moved to cut funding for clinics

In March, the Department of Health and Human Services withheld $27.5 million that groups were expecting to provide family planning, contraception, cancer screening and sexually transmitted infection tests and treatment. Some of the groups also provide abortions and include at least 11 regional Planned Parenthood affiliates.

“We’re absolutely in a public health crisis of epic proportions,” said Brittany Fonteno, president and CEO of the National Abortion Federation. “We’re in a situation where there are reproductive health care deserts, not just abortion care deserts.”

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President Donald Trump’s tax and budget bill that is up for consideration in the Senate after getting House approval would deliver more blows to abortion funding.

It would bar federally subsidized health insurance plans from covering abortion, except if it’s necessary to save the life of the woman, or in cases of rape or incest.

The bill also would bar Medicaid funds from flowing to Planned Parenthood, the nation’s biggest abortion provider.

Planned Parenthood said those provisions could lead to the closures of about half its clinics that provide abortion —- and about one-fourth of abortion clinics nationwide. The biggest impact on affiliate clinics would be in states where abortion is legal.

Alexis McGill-Johnson, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Federation of America, said it’s almost been a challenge to fund abortion — and all health care — for low-income people.

“If the market could have figured it out,” she said, “then we wouldn’t exist.”