‘Fake’ Christian? Or Faithful?

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“One of the few openly Christian politicians in the United States who acts like a Christian.” 

That’s how conservative New York Times columnist David French recently characterized James Talarico and the Texas Democrat’s “faith-forward” campaign for the U.S. Senate. It should come as no surprise that Talarico walks the Christian walk: He’s currently on leave from his training for the ministry at Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary (APTS). 

However, given the MAGA Christian response to the young politician-seminarian, you might think it was the Antichrist running for the Senate. He’s been called “demonic,” a “fake Christian,” and “blasphemous,” with “very, very radical and extreme views.” One Newsmax host accused him of using “fake passages from the Bible, tortured and misrepresented.” Talarico has drawn fire for characterizing God as “nonbinary,” though he later explained he meant God is “beyond gender” (a common theological notion). U.S. Representative Ronny Jackson, an Amarillo Republican, said the statement showed Talarico is “a full-on RADICAL LEFTIST!!”

Such over-the-top rhetoric is a sad fact of life in this age of post-truth hyperbole. But the ferocity of anti-Talarico invective reveals a deep and very public clash between two distinct ways of being Christian. 

While MAGA Christians insist that the Bible dictates their anti-abortion, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-immigrant Christian nationalism, the Mainline Protestant tradition—of which Talarico’s Presbyterian Church (USA) is a part—has a very different understanding of what it means to follow Jesus, one that leads to a politics precisely opposite from that of MAGA Christians. 

Within this Mainline tradition, Talarico is quite orthodox. His campaign, then, and the shrill attacks it provokes from right-wing Christians, is a vivid reminder of just how varied Christianity is. And paradoxically, Talarico’s unabashedly biblical politics also underscore the imperative of defending our nation’s venerable, but now vulnerable, tradition of church-state separation.

So strongly does Talarico’s campaign foreground his Christian faith that The New Yorker claims his platform is basically the New Testament. 

That’s a bit of an overstatement. Talarico is running on a standard progressive Democratic platform. He advocates “paid family leave, affordable child care, [and] the right of every American to marry who they love.” He envisions an America “where every person and every family—regardless of religion, race, gender, sexual orientation, or any other difference between us—can truly be free and live up to their full potential.” This could easily be the platform of a Kamala Harris or an Elizabeth Warren.

Naturally, this is anathema to conservative Republicans and their evangelical Protestant allies. But what seems to particularly irk MAGA Christians is that, unlike most Democratic politicians, Talarico explicitly grounds his progressive agenda in the same Bible that MAGA Christians claim as their own

Talarico often says he learned from his Baptist preacher grandfather that Christians “follow a barefoot rabbi who gave us two commandments: Love God and love neighbor—because there is no love of God without love of neighbor.” That’s a reference to Matthew 22:36-40, one of Talarico’s go-to, and definitely non-“fake,” scripture passages. And as Talarico told Stephen Colbert, it has radical implications: We are to love our neighbor “regardless of race or gender or sexual orientation or immigration status or religious affiliation.” 

Another of Talarico’s go-to Gospel passages, Matthew 25:35-40, directly links love for Jesus with care for the hungry, the stranger, and the imprisoned. For many evangelicals, this passage refers mainly to a future end-times Tribulation. For Talarico, by contrast, it is manifestly current and intensely political. Here’s how he deploys it in the Colbert appearance:

“For 50 years, the religious right … convinced a lot of our fellow Christians that the most important issues were abortion and gay marriage … two issues that Jesus never talked about. Jesus in Matthew 25 tells us exactly how you and I and every one of our fellow believers [are] going to be judged and how we’re going to be saved: by feeding the hungry, by healing the sick, by welcoming the stranger.”

Accordingly, Talarico calls for “a politics of love—a love for this state, a love for this country, and a love for all of our neighbors. A love that can heal what’s broken in America.”

However blasphemous Talarico’s “politics of love” may seem to MAGA Christians, he’s quite orthodox within the Mainline Protestant family. Texas Impact’s Bee Moorhead—a Presbyterian Church (USA) elder who has taught Talarico at seminary—considers his politics and biblical appeals “extremely consistent” with their shared denomination’s teachings. Rev. Dr. Josh Robinson, pastor at Austin’s Hope Presbyterian Church, also finds Talarico’s “theological grounding, in most meaningful respects, consistent with PC(USA) teaching.” The denomination, Robinson adds, is “a big tent,” embracing “serious theological diversity, from confessional conservatives to progressive activists. … Talarico is on the progressive end of that tent, but he is inside it.”

Claiming more than 1 million members in the United States, Talarico’s denomination is part of the Reformed tradition of Protestantism. Basic Presbyterian beliefs echo those that most evangelicals affirm: God rules over creation; all persons are sinners; and Christians must live “in accordance with God’s moral law.” Like evangelicals, Presbyterians also believe in Christ’s Second Coming and a final judgment, and they deem the Bible “the infallible word of God.” 

Yet, when applying that divine word to social and political issues, the Presbyterian Church (USA) departs radically from MAGA Christians. According to the denomination’s website, Reformed theology calls the faithful to “respond to God’s call to work for a society that seeks justice.” Another document spells out the denomination’s commitment: “Our social witness stance … encourages church members and leaders to go to places of suffering and need to alleviate poverty, stop violence, protect the planet from climate change, and seek justice for immigrants, the LGBTQIA+ community, and people of color.”

For these Presbyterians, like Talarico, Jesus’ call in Matthew 25 to serve “the least of these” requires a commitment to “dismantling structural racism, and eradicating systemic poverty.” 

Robinson said that Talarico’s use of Matthew 25 “maps directly onto one of our denomination’s central, biblical commitments.” Rev. Dr. Duane Bidwell, pastor of Claremont Presbyterian Church in California and a former faculty member at Claremont School of Theology, agreed: “When Talarico emphasizes dignity, compassion, fair economic policies, and moral responsibility, he’s drawing straight from the teachings of Jesus, and he fits right in with the PC(USA)’s social witness tradition.”

When Talarico declares, “The closest thing we have to the Kingdom of Heaven is a multiracial, multicultural democracy,” he echoes leading theological voices in his denomination. For instance, here’s the late Letty M. Russell, longtime Presbyterian professor at Yale Divinity: “[I]n Christ, difference is a given. God intends for many voices, cultures, and languages and presses the church to be part of every nation and culture, growing and learning from the differences of people in its midst.”

Not all members of Talarico’s denomination are as socially and politically liberal as their denomination’s official teachings. Members are fairly evenly divided between Republicans (47 percent) and Democrats (48 percent), and between those who think the growing immigrant population is a change for the better (36 percent) or for the worse (38 percent). Robinson noted that “more theologically conservative members … would take genuine issue” with Talarico’s framing of God as non-binary, especially those “who have been taught to picture God through the default masculine lens.” 

Nevertheless, denomination members appear to align more closely with Talarico on other issues: Seven out of 10 believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, strongly favor same-sex marriage, and believe homosexuality should be accepted. “Talarico’s stances aren’t revolutionary,” Bidwell said. “He’s saying things that have been in the mainstream of PC(USA) life and theological education for 30 or 40 years.”

The broader Mainline Protestant family also includes the United Methodist Church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church, the Disciples of Christ, and the Episcopal Church (my own denomination). In Texas, and nationwide, this religious grouping accounts for about 10 percent of adults—significant, but well behind evangelicals (27 percent in Texas) and Catholics (22 percent).

More liberal theologically and politically than their evangelical neighbors, Mainline Protestants generally share Talarico’s concern for those who suffer injustice, marginalization, and discrimination. Last year, Episcopalian bishop Marian Edgar Budde took a characteristically Mainline stand when she called on President Trump to “have mercy upon the people in our country who are scared now,” including LGBTQ+ persons and undocumented immigrants at risk of deportation. In response, Trump labeled her “a radical left hard-line Trump hater”—shades of the MAGA Christian invective against Talarico.

Apart from rare occasions like the Trump-Budde controversy, Mainline Protestants get precious little coverage in the mainstream media compared to the other major Christian tendencies. And like all Christian groups, they have seen a steady decline in membership in recent decades. So, for many Mainline Protestants I’ve talked to, Talarico’s campaign is as welcome and refreshing as the first raindrops after a long drought.

Talarico in San Antonio on March 1 (AP Photo/Brenda Bazán, File)

Despite positive polling, Talarico still faces an uphill slog to win stubbornly red Texas. Yet however he fares in November, his campaign serves as a timely reminder that there are many ways of following that “barefoot rabbi”—indeed, many ways of being religious, as witnessed by the proliferation of mosques, synagogues, and Hindu and Buddhist temples across the Lone Star State. People of faith, including people of the same faith, disagree profoundly over moral, cultural, and political issues. The “religious vote” is far from monolithic.

And this highlights a basic problem with Christian nationalism, long dominant in Texas politics and seeing an unprecedented ascendency in the second Trump administration. When partisans of that ideology call for the United States to be an explicitly “Christian nation” governed by Bible-based laws, they beg a central but all-important question: Whose version of Christian, and whose interpretation of the Bible? 

Somewhat paradoxically, by running on his faith and thereby drawing vitriol from MAGA Christians, Talarico also reminds us of the wisdom of church-state separation—that venerable constitutional principle which Talarico himself has called “sacred.” (Here again, as Robinson noted, Talarico is orthodox within the Presbyterian tradition: “Presbyterians,” Robinson said, “have a long and serious commitment to [the church-state] boundary, not because faith is private but because coerced religion is a distortion of it.”) As Talarico told Colbert, this separation harmonizes with Jesus’ command to love one’s neighbors, including one’s non-Christian neighbors: “Forcing our religion down their throats is not love.” 

With so wide a variety of viewpoints—even within the same faith community—it’s dangerous for any one to have too much power. While people’s religious commitments inevitably shape their political choices, as Talarico’s Presbyterianism clearly shapes his, no single faith community should have a political monopoly.

When I asked Moorhead how she positions Talarico within the U.S. Presbyterian community as a whole, she replied, “Hopefully he represents the future of the church.” 

Whether he’ll be Texas’ future senator remains to be seen. But his “faith-forward” campaign reminds us of our state’s religious diversity—and of our shared imperative to guard against religious tyranny.

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Will New School District Takeovers Follow the Model—and ‘Chaos’—of Houston ISD?

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Editor’s Note: This article is co-published with ProPublica as part of an initiative to report on state and federal efforts to restrict local control.

No state has taken over as many local public school districts as Texas. Just since 2020, the state education agency has installed its own hand-picked leaders in eight districts. Four of those came this spring. At least another 10 are at risk of takeover, including, as of last week, the Austin Independent School District (ISD). 

And to lead some of these districts, Texas is turning to a cadre of officials with ties to Mike Miles, the man the education agency chose in 2023 to oversee the Houston school district, the state’s largest. Miles is also a close ally of Mike Morath, Texas’ powerful education commissioner.

Already, at least two of these new district leaders have started to adopt policies similar to the contentious reforms Miles has pursued in Houston. He has touted improved test scores under his charge. Houston ISD had no F-rated campuses and fewer D-rated campuses in the state’s latest ratings compared with previous years. But Miles has also sparked widespread protests in response to the district’s rigid adherence to scripted lessons and repetitive testing, the firing of principals and teachers, mass school closures, and the conversion of schools into charters.  

Miles did not respond to requests for comment from the Texas Observer. Houston ISD officials, in a statement to the Observer, said the district did not achieve better ratings by maintaining the status quo but “made difficult decisions” to improve academic performance, noting the majority of its campuses are now rated A or B. 

The school districts whose new leaders have connections to Miles should prepare for “upheaval and chaos,” warned an elected Houston school board member. 

“If anything doesn’t align with improving test scores, it will be taken away,” said Maria Benzon, who was elected in November to the Houston ISD board but is not permitted to serve under the ongoing state takeover. Under Miles, for example, Houston ISD eliminated librarian positions and turned some libraries into what Benzon called “detention centers,” because they are being used, in part, for students with behavioral issues. Morath, the Texas Education Agency (TEA) commissioner, has said the centers are used for more than just punishment

Mike Miles in September 2023 in Houston (Karen Warren/Houston Chronicle via AP)

Texas law allows the TEA to take control of districts with multiple failing school ratings or governance issues and to replace their superintendents and elected boards. 

The recent takeovers include Beaumont, Lake Worth, and Connally independent school districts, whose new superintendents worked under Miles when he was superintendent in Dallas ISD; two of them also worked for him in Houston. In Fort Worth ISD, one of the state’s largest districts, the new state-appointed superintendent chose as his second-in-command Daniel Soliz, another person who worked under Miles in Houston ISD. Soliz did not respond to requests for comment for this story. 

At least two of the state’s new superintendent appointees—Sandi Massey, who now helms Beaumont ISD in southeast Texas, and Ena Meyers, TEA’s appointee for Lake Worth ISD, a small district near Fort Worth—also worked for the controversial Colorado-based charter network Third Future Schools, which Miles led prior to becoming superintendent in Houston. In April, the Observer revealed that Miles had an ongoing $120,000 annual consulting contract with the charter network, an arrangement that likely violated a new statewide ban on public school administrators’ moonlighting. After questions from the news organization, Miles canceled the contract. The district said Miles “remains fully focused on leading Houston ISD and delivering results for students.”

Third Future’s charter network is expanding around the state as districts turn campuses over to the nonprofit’s Texas subsidiary, often as a means to delay possible state takeover. The organization did not respond to the Observer’s request for comment.

School district takeovers often involve layoffs, school closures, and an increase in charter schools, as has happened in Houston, said Domingo Morel, an associate professor of political science and public service at New York University, who found Texas has had more district takeovers than any other state since 1989. 

What’s unique to Texas, Morel said, is that the low bar required to take control has led to more takeovers. Since 2015, five consecutive failing state ratings at just one school can trigger a takeover, as occurred in Houston, which has 273 campuses. 

Texas has also made it harder for districts to appeal these seizures. The Legislature passed a law in 2021 that barred districts from using public funds to challenge the education commissioner’s “final and unappealable” decision to take them over. The threshold that defines a failing school was also lowered. Then, in 2025, the state passed another law restricting districts from using public funds to sue the state when challenging its accountability ratings. 

The state “is the player, the referee, the coach, the scorekeeper,” when it comes to rating schools and deciding when to seize control, said Steven Nelson, an associate professor of education policy and leadership at the University of Nevada who’s been studying school takeovers for more than a decade. He said he suspects the TEA-appointed leaders connected to Miles will also focus on standardized testing, which will result in “a narrow curriculum when all is said and done.” 

The acceleration of takeovers, and the state’s increasingly stringent rating system, comes just as Texas rolls out a school voucher program that will, in most cases, award parents $10,000 in state funds to send their children to private schools. State accountability standards do not apply to private schools, where students don’t have to take the standardized tests required in Texas public schools. 

TEA spokesperson Jake Kobersky said the agency does not expect the four school districts that have recently been taken over to adopt the same reforms that Miles implemented in Houston. “During an intervention, state law requires the agency to appoint a new superintendent and a board of managers. All other staffing and operational decisions are made locally by the district,” Kobersky said. 

But last August, Morath told lawmakers other districts “should be copying the changes that we see in Houston.”

Massey, the new superintendent in Beaumont, has also cited the changes in Houston ISD as a blueprint.

“The model that we are implementing here is a very similar model to Houston. And why? Because of the success that Houston has had,” Massey said at a May 21 board meeting, referring to her time working with Miles at Houston ISD, where he selected her to be chief of schools. 

Under Massey, the newly appointed board of managers voted at their first meeting to temporarily suspend a number of policies related to governance and hiring practices, including employees’ rights to present grievances to the board and principals’ ability to approve new hires without district permission. Board of managers member Jeff Wheeler said at the meeting, “We are requesting that they be suspended until the board can move, can more fully evaluate our local policies.”

The board has taken other steps that mirror what happened in Houston after the takeover there: On May 14, the district announced it was cutting 34 positions that support student mental health, and on May 21, it announced a high school would close. 

Massey did not respond to the Observer’s requests for comment about whether she’s following the Houston playbook. Jackie Simien, a spokesperson for Beaumont ISD said, “Massey has worked alongside successful educational leaders with demonstrated results in improving systems, instruction, and student performance.”

Mike Morath in 2018 (Ricardo Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP)

Benzon, the elected Houston ISD board member, said Miles is sidelining parent and teacher voices in her district, and they are leaving in droves as a result. “They are trying to escape the New Education System and Miles’ bad policies,” Benzon added, referring to a program Miles transplanted from his former charter school network that is characterized by scripted lessons and repetitive testing. The Houston Chronicle reported the district “is losing students at an accelerated pace” under the takeover, spurring the district to shutter 12 schools ahead of the next school year. 

In its statement to the Observer, Houston ISD cited a survey of families reporting a “favorable perception” of the district and said it retained many exemplary teachers.

Nelson and Morel said they believe the ultimate objective of any takeover is to disenfranchise local communities. Black and Hispanic students make up the majority of the population at all four of the districts now headed by Miles’ associates.

“It all begins at the school board level to then completely disempower the community,” Morel said.

On April 23, Houston ISD moved to fire a veteran teacher and president of the Houston Education Association teachers union after she protested requirements to comply with Miles’ New Education System. 

Meyers, the new Lake Worth superintendent who at the time was Houston ISD’s deputy chief of strategic initiatives, testified in favor of the teacher’s termination. 

“We do not allow our staff to make decisions about curriculum in a New Education System school or in Houston ISD,” Meyers said, according to a transcript of the hearing. “If they are not following expectations, we would not allow them to stay in HISD as an employee.” 

Since taking over in Lake Worth, Meyers and the board of managers have temporarily suspended board policies related to governance procedures, hiring, and employee assignments and schedules, similar to what Massey and her board did in Beaumont. 

In response to the Observer’s inquiries about replicating Houston ISD’s reforms in her new role, Meyers wrote in an email that “Lake Worth ISD is very different from Houston ISD. We are a district of five schools serving a much smaller community, so our approach must reflect the unique needs of our students, staff, and families.” 

Her email continued, “I believe educators should learn from successful practices wherever they exist.”

As in Beaumont and Lake Worth, the takeover in Fort Worth ISD has been characterized by swift changes. After less than a month under the new leadership, the 68,000-student district has suspended local board governance and hiring policies and has cut dozens of staff positions, including those supporting English-language learners. 

Parent-organizer Zach Leonard said a new instructional model Fort Worth ISD is rolling out in 19 schools, called “Elevate,” is essentially the same as what Miles has done in Houston, an assertion that Fort Worth district spokesperson Tierney Tinnin refuted. 

Leonard, who is organizing with other families to oppose the takeover, noted “scripted slide-by-slide lessons, rigid timed instruction, and ‘demonstrations of learning’ reduced to data points” as similarities between the programs.

“This isn’t education reform,” Leonard said, referring to Miles’ model of learning being transported to Fort Worth. “It’s a franchise being handed to our children without a vote.” 

Do you have a tip related to a state takeover of a Texas school or district? Share it with Josephine Lee at lee@texasobserver.org

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Texas Is Cracking Down on Essential Immigrant Drivers

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For four years, I’d driven school buses and 18-wheelers for the Lamar Consolidated Independent School District, one of the Houston area’s largest and fastest-growing districts. I transported more than 100 students safely to and from school each day. Before every route, I walked the vehicle—checking tires, brakes, lights, and mirrors. Parents trusted me with what matters most to them. I didn’t take that lightly.

When I wasn’t driving a bus, I hauled everything our district marching bands needed to perform—instruments, uniforms, audio gear, staging equipment, carts and dollies, tool kits, weather tarps, and repair supplies. The trailer became a rolling warehouse. We loaded each piece onto wheeled racks and road cases, rolled it up the lift-gate, and secured it tightly so nothing shifted on the road.

Whether headed from Houston to San Antonio, Dallas, Lubbock, or Austin, I knew that what was behind me mattered just as much as who was riding with me. It was careful, detailed work, and I loved doing it. I’m proud of the trust that came with it. 

Then, on March 16, a new federal rule became fully active nationwide. It narrows which immigration categories qualify for certain commercial licenses and requires additional verification and documentation for renewals. Texas began adjusting to these changes months before that nationwide rule took effect, costing me the job that I loved.

As a 38-year-old wife and mother, this job paid our bills and put food on the table for my 7- and 10-year-old children. One of them has autism, and in our home, routine and stability aren’t luxuries—they’re essential. A steady paycheck means therapy appointments, groceries, and peace of mind.

I spent six months in driving school to earn my commercial driver’s license (CDL). I studied and passed the written exams and road test. I completed additional certifications to operate both school buses and Class A 18-wheelers. I met every requirement.

When I first enrolled in CDL training, I presented my valid federal employment authorization—a temporary work permit issued while my asylum case is pending. I first received that permit in 2022, renewed it in 2024, and it is valid through March 2029. That document allowed me to train for and obtain my CDL in Texas.

Last December, I saw a news report about drivers experiencing license changes through the Texas Department of Public Safety. Out of caution, I checked my CDL record online. In Texas, a Class A CDL can be administratively downgraded to a regular Class C license if required medical certification paperwork isn’t current or properly recorded under the driver’s self-certification category. That kind of downgrade doesn’t mean someone was unsafe. It can mean documentation is missing, expired, or not properly recorded in the state’s system.

When I looked up my status, my Class A CDL had been downgraded to a Class C. There was no phone call or warning. No explanation about why the category had changed or what document was missing. Just a different status where my commercial license used to be. I didn’t know what had triggered it or what steps I needed to take next. For any working driver, that kind of uncertainty is unsettling.

As a result, I was let go from the school district just before Christmas.

Now, I’m told I need a green card to reinstate my CDL. My immigration case is still pending, and I am waiting for a hearing before an immigration judge. In the meantime, I remain legally authorized to work under my valid federal permit, and I have continued to follow every requirement placed in front of me.

Rules can change. But when they do, drivers who are already licensed and in good standing should have a clear and workable path to comply and continue working. A CDL isn’t just another card in a wallet. It’s a livelihood.

When Class A licenses are downgraded, it affects more than the drivers themselves. Across Texas, Class A drivers haul fresh produce from the Valley, parts to manufacturing plants, new cars to dealerships, and medical supplies to hospitals. Freight moves through the Port of Houston every day because trained drivers show up ready to work.

Meanwhile, for families like mine, even a short interruption creates stress. Income stops. Bills don’t. Insurance and contracts become uncertain. In a state that depends on freight and growth, small disruptions add up quickly.

I’m not asking for special treatment. I’m asking for clear information, timely notice if something needs to be updated, and a real opportunity to correct it. If I meet the requirements and maintain my commercial standing, I should be able to keep driving. That doesn’t happen by luck. It comes from safety, training, focus, and respect for the weight of the job.

Driving isn’t just what I do. It’s how I provide for my children and contribute to my community.

In Texas, we value hard work and accountability. Drivers who meet the standards and keep our roads safe should have a clear, reliable path to keep working. I hope fellow Texans pay attention to what’s happening to working drivers across this state. Ask questions. Talk to local officials. 

Stability on the road strengthens families—and the state we all depend on.

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Texas Nights Are Getting Hotter, and the Power Grid Isn’t Ready

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Texas is heading into summer 2026 with a power grid under pressure from two directions. Data centers and large computing facilities are adding enormous, continuous electricity demand. At the same time, summer nights are getting warmer, reducing the overnight cooling the grid once relied on, keeping residential air conditioners running long after dark. Regulators are still writing the rules for those new industrial loads, but ERCOT’s own planning documents already show where the pressure is building: in the evening hours, when solar output fades but demand does not. That is where cooling homes that cannot cool down and data centers that never switch off collide, and it is exactly where the grid is most exposed.

There is a moment in a Texas summer night, usually around 2 a.m., when you expect the heat to finally relent. For most of the 20th century, that moment was reliable. Engineers built demand curves around it. Rate structures were calibrated to it.

But that moment is becoming less reliable.

What scientists call elevated nighttime minimum temperatures—and what Texans would refer to simply as nights that never cool off—is reshaping the state’s energy picture in ways that broad averages can obscure. When nighttime temperatures stay high, air conditioners run through the night. People who need sleep to recover from heat exposure don’t get it. The electricity grid, planned around a daily demand cycle with a reliable overnight drop, finds itself sustaining load that used to fade by midnight.

As this summer approaches, regulators are still working to close the gap. Just weeks ago, the Public Utility Commission of Texas published proposed Senate Bill 6 interconnection rules setting steep financial security and disclosure requirements for large loads connecting to the grid. The full five-track rulemaking won’t produce final rules until late 2026, well after the peak season. The urgency is visible in last year’s data. In 2025, ERCOT’s summer high reached 83.9 gigawatts on August 18, while a new all-time winter peak of 80.6 gigawatts was set in February, both in the same calendar year. A grid once defined by one brutal season now faces sustained pressure in two. ERCOT’s own reporting confirms that tightest operating conditions now occur not at the afternoon peak, but in the evening hours as solar ramps down while load remains high.

ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves report, using its updated 2025 load forecast, indicates that planning reserve margins for the peak net load hour could enter negative territory as early as this summer under above-normal conditions. (The peak load hour margin does not go negative until summer 2027.) The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment found that ERCOT expects adequate resources under normal conditions, while evening hours carry heightened reliability risk as solar output falls and load stays elevated, with the highest-risk window identified around 9 p.m. These are not projections from outside critics. They are the grid operator’s own numbers, and the season that will test them is weeks away.

What makes the approaching season different from previous near-miss summers is the convergence of those two demand pressures. Because Texas operates largely as an isolated grid, it cannot easily draw on neighboring regions when those pressures converge, the full weight falls on a system designed to carry it alone.

The first is structural load growth. The EIA projects electricity demand within ERCOT will rise by roughly 14 percent in 2026 as large data centers and cryptocurrency mining facilities come fully online. Industry tracking indicates ERCOT entered 2026 with more than 230 gigawatts of large-load interconnection requests in its queue, nearly quadruple the level from the prior year. These facilities create a continuous baseline of demand that the grid has to meet at all hours, not just during the afternoon peak.

The second pressure is residential cooling demand that is both growing and shifting later into the night. According to the NOAA’s annual climate report, 2024 was Texas’s warmest year on record. The summer of 2023 saw ERCOT demand peak at 85,508 megawatts, the all-time grid record. In May 2025, during a heat event that would have been unremarkable in August a decade ago, ERCOT set a new May demand record of 78,392 megawatts, topping the prior May record of 77,139 megawatts set in 2024. The high-demand season is starting earlier and lasting longer. The overnight recovery window the system was calibrated to is shrinking.

Together, these two forces are revealing a gap between what the Texas grid was planned to handle and what it is now being asked to support. The system is operating under higher levels of demand than its original design assumed, and that gap is widest not at noon, but in the evening, when industrial load continues uninterrupted and cooling demand no longer drops the way the engineering once counted on.

Texas has made real progress in grid modernization. Solar generation has expanded rapidly: utility-scale solar in ERCOT produced nearly four times as much electricity in the first nine months of 2025 as it did in the same period in 2021. Battery storage capacity has roughly tripled since 2023, providing support in the evening hours as solar rolls off the system. But solar peaks at noon, not at 9 p.m., and batteries sized to manage a few hours of evening ramp-up cannot carry the grid through a night when temperatures stay high and industrial load continues uninterrupted.

Those planning assumptions are now being tested under conditions they were not built around.

Closing that gap requires investment in grid flexibility and longer-duration storage. Demand-response policies that give large industrial loads financial incentives to curtail during peak hours are a start. SB 6, passed during the 89th legislative session, moves in that direction by tightening interconnection and reliability requirements for very large loads and creating tools for load reduction and backup generation coordination during emergencies. The harder problem is overnight duration: storage that can carry the grid for hours beyond the evening ramp, through the stretch of night when industrial demand does not let up and cooling demand no longer drops.

Texas built its grid for a climate that no longer fully exists. The assumption of overnight demand relief, baked into decades of engineering and planning, is losing its reliability. A grid that now has to carry continuous industrial load through nights that no longer cool down is a different system than the one regulators and operators designed for. Updating it is not optional.

Meeting that challenge is not a concession to weakness. It is the infrastructure work that sustained economic growth now depends on.

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