Teach our children well — about money, with local resources

Why was St. Paul spending $900,000 for Youth Financial Literacy curriculum in St. Paul Schools and Rec Centers from BlackFem to teach victimhood and “wealth justice”? Why not invest that time and money into developing useful skills to meet the goals of the NAACP and the Federal Reserve of self-esteem, creating lifelong success with money, developing rewarding careers, building wealth, and passing that wealth to the next generation?

There are St. Paul Schools Business Education teachers, local financial professionals, and St. Paul Junior Achievement who are willing to create and deliver a K-12 age-appropriate financial literacy curriculum from a wealth of quality existing resources.  It can be done for 10% of what Mayor Carter’s Office of Financial Empowerment is wasting nearly $1,000,000 of scarce taxpayer money on to pay BlackFem to create a product from whole cloth.  BlackFem would then own the product, and St. Paul would have to buy a license to use a curriculum St. Paul paid to create, with no ownership rights.  That makes no sense.

Don’t reinvent the wheel. Stop wasting money on a new, unfinished, overdue, untested, non-peer reviewed curriculum. With a locally developed and delivered curriculum, St. Paul would own it with the copyrights to evolve it and reproduce it without licensing fees, forever. Maybe even license it to others and create revenue for the city.

I’m sure Mayor Her, with her business acumen, knows financial literacy can be taught far better with far fewer tax dollars.  St. Paul youth are not victims of “the financial system,” they are young people who, with the right fiscal education, can be future millionaires next door.

Gregg Adler, Afton. The writer is a retired St. Paul school teacher.

 

Relief is at hand!

Because of the billions of dollars we will no longer be spending to support fraud in our government programs, we can now look forward to our elected officials dramatically lowering our taxes.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

John Heller, North St. Paul

 

On and on and on

The Monday, Dec. 29, article concerning Donald Trump’s war plans in the Caribbean only goes to show how things do not change, ever. Good old-fashioned gun boat diplomacy at its very best. And guess what? For oil. It goes on and on and on. Forget renewable energy. No money to be made there.

Tom Bates, St. Paul

 

Stop the pandering. Start governing

Minnesotans, how much taxpayer money has to be stolen before we finally say enough? No one expects fraud to be eliminated entirely, but it is unacceptable to build systems that invite abuse instead of preventing it.

This is not an isolated failure. It is systemic, deep and long-standing. Hardworking taxpayers are watching their money disappear while being told this is just how government works. That excuse is insulting.

All three branches of government share responsibility for this mess. Years of weak oversight, political protection, and refusal to act have brought us here. The problem is not a lack of information. It is a lack of courage.

Partisanship has replaced leadership. Decisions are made to protect political interests, not the people paying the bills. That approach has failed Minnesota.

Real people rely on these programs, and unchecked fraud puts them at risk. There is no accountability to voters and no respect for taxpayers asked to give more every year.

Enough. Stop pandering. Start governing. Minnesotans deserve leaders with the backbone to do what is right, not what is politically convenient.

Jay Reeves, Victoria, MN

 

Minneapolis shows the way on Summit Avenue

St. Paul’s showcase street is threatened by a multi-million dollar overhaul that will remove all the bike lanes — first of their kind in Minnesota — and build an above-grade trail.

Minneapolis is widely regarded as having one of the best bicycling infrastructures in the country. So how might our upstart twin tell us to proceed?

They’d tell us the 9-foot-wide, buffered bicycle lanes on Summit Avenue west of Lexington Avenue are fine just as they are. Minneapolis Public Works confirmed in an OpenCity data request that they have about 20 miles of buffered bike lanes. The email states, “The City has never replaced a buffered bicycle lane with an above-grade bike trail.” And that, “there are no upcoming reconstruction projects that would replace buffered bicycle lanes with above-grade trails.” In other words — stay the course west of Lexington.

A recent pedestrian fatality at Summit and Dale Street has raised additional concerns regarding the project. Minneapolis, like St. Paul, works to create safer streets for walking as well as bicycling. Portland Avenue in south Minneapolis has buffered bike lanes and recently rebuilt the intersection at 34th Street. This innovative design narrows the pedestrian crossing distance on Portland while allowing the buffered bicycle lane to continue up and over the raised walkway. Enhanced pedestrian crossings like this could help slow traffic and provide safer crosswalks at key intersections on Summit.

Slowing down cars is a high priority everywhere. Last summer Minneapolis implemented a pilot project using cameras to issue speeding tickets. The program coordinator, Ethan Fawley, has said that speeding declines up to 97% when cameras are present.

Minneapolis is a bigger city with a much larger budget. Besides their terrific 89-mile network of off-road trails winding through parks and parkways, around the lakes and along rail-trails, they also have an extensive bike system in the city street grid. Almost 80% of this city system consists of on-street, painted bike lanes. There are 140 miles of bike lanes plus an additional 36 miles of “curb-protected,” above-grade bikeways. Everyday bicyclists must be comfortable on both bike lanes and trails.

While the buffered bike lanes on Summit west of Lexington offer safe cycling, the stretch of Summit from Lexington east to Western Avenue has narrower bike lanes, higher traffic counts and greater need of subsurface repairs. This section of Summit merits a closer look by city officials interested in improving bicycle and pedestrian safety.

There’s one area where St. Paul is way ahead of Minneapolis and every other city in the country. Professor Ernest Sandeen proclaimed in his landmark book on the celebrated street, “Summit Avenue stands as the best-preserved American example of the Victorian monumental residential boulevard.” He explained how Prairie Avenue in Chicago, Euclid Avenue in Cleveland, Fifth Avenue in New York and Park Avenue in Minneapolis were all grand boulevards a century ago. But their stately homes, magnificent churches and leafy parkways succumbed to urban development, decay and commerce leaving little to see of their former grandeur.

In St. Paul this grandeur is alive. Summit Avenue stands alone. And with Minneapolis in mind, most of it should be left alone.

Richard Fred Arey, St. Paul. The writer is author of “Twin Cities Bicycling” and founder of the Saint Paul Classic Bike Tour.

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A new year is often challenging. Despite knowing we should throw out old, bad habits along with the New Year’s Eve party favors, change is hard.

Many of us eat more than we should. Yet nothing changes for the better — especially in terms of health — when we keep eating those bad-for-us-but-tasty processed junk foods that are high in sugar, salt and fat and low in nutrients.

In terms of home cooking, modifying the way you eat to improve nutrition and health is easier one dish at a time, as opposed to suddenly deciding to quit cold turkey on the likes of meat, carbs or sugar.

As someone probably told you time and again: Slow and steady often wins the race.

The food catchphrase of late is “mindful eating” — that is, paying attention with all of your senses (not just taste) to experience, enjoy and improve our relationship with food. But that’s just a start.

To help you on your 2026 food journey, here are five more practical tips that cover the basics of healthy eating and can lead to healthier choices at the grocery store. They’re paired with easy, good-for-you recipes that can be added to the weekly rotation.

This year’s tips include eating a wide variety of colorful vegetables, to provide the body with a good source of vitamins and nutrients, improve digestion and encourage healthy aging; occasionally trading meat for plant-based proteins, to lower risk of heart disease and other chronic illnesses; cutting down on sugar and saturated fats; eating more fiber, to feed beneficial bacteria in the gut and promote regular bowel movements; and, finally, staying hydrated to keep your body functioning properly.

All the accompanying recipes are easy to make with everyday ingredients. So no excuses!

Eat more fiber: Chickpea Masala

Making masala with chickpeas instead of chicken is an easy way to get more fiber in your diet. (Gretchen McKay/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette/TNS)

Fiber-rich foods include fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, nuts and seeds. They’re often low in fat and fill you up, as many high-fiber foods are starchy.

You won’t miss the chicken in this creamy vegetarian dish featuring a spiced sauce made with tomato paste, chile and ginger. The main ingredient — chickpeas — is a nutritional powerhouse that provides protein along with both soluble and insoluble fibers, making a serving (or two) excellent for gut health.

I served this dish with both steamed rice and warm naan for scooping up the flavorful gravy. If you like less spice, substitute a jalapeño for the serrano chile.

INGREDIENTS

4 tablespoons unsalted butter

1 yellow onion, finely chopped

1 teaspoon (or more) kosher salt, divided

1/2 cup tomato paste

1/2 serrano chile, seeded, finely chopped

1 tablespoon grated or finely chopped peeled ginger

2 (14.5-ounce) cans chickpeas, drained, rinsed

1/8 teaspoon baking soda

1 teaspoon garam masala

1 teaspoon ground cumin

1 teaspoon Kashmiri chili powder or 3/4 teaspoon paprika plus 1/4 teaspoon cayenne pepper

1 cup heavy cream

1 cup water

1 tablespoon dried fenugreek leaves or kasoori methi, optional

1/4 cup fresh cilantro leaves, torn or coarsely chopped

Cooked jasmine rice or naan, for serving

DIRECTIONS

In a large, high-sided skillet over medium heat, melt butter.

Add onion and 1/2 teaspoon salt and cook, stirring occasionally, until softened, about 7 minutes.

Add tomato paste and cook, stirring constantly, until darkened, 4 to 5 minutes.

Add chile and ginger and cook, stirring until fragrant and tomato paste is starting to stick to bottom of pan, about 1 minute more.

Add chickpeas and baking soda and stir to combine, then add garam masala, cumin and chili powder and cook, stirring frequently, until fragrant and incorporated, about 30 seconds.

Stir in cream, 1 cup water, fenugreek (if using), and remaining 1/2 teaspoon salt.

Bring to a simmer over medium-high heat, then reduce heat to low and continue to simmer, stirring occasionally, until sauce is reduced, 10 to 15 minutes; season with more salt, if needed. Top with cilantro.

Divide rice among bowls or plates. Spoon chickpea mixture over rice and serve.

Serves 6.

— delish.com

Eat more vegetables: Crunchy Kale Salad

This easy winter salad includes five different fruits and vegetables. (Gretchen McKay/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette/TNS)

According to U.S. guidelines, adults should aim for at least five servings of fruits and vegetables each day. That explains why our mothers and grandmothers have been urging — maybe even pleading — with us to eat more veggies for as long as anyone can remember, and always tucked a piece of fruit in our lunchboxes.

This kale salad makes it easy to make mom happy. Tossed in a zesty cilantro-lime dressing, it lives up to its name with an abundance of crunchy vegetables that taste great, don’t cost a fortune and are easy to find in any grocery store.

I added a handful of dried cherries, but Craisins would also add a touch of sweetness. If you don’t care for feta, substitute another crumbly cheese like cotija or use goat cheese (or no cheese) instead. For those with nut allergies, add pumpkin or sunflower seeds in lieu of peanuts.

INGREDIENTS

For dressing:

1 large bunch cilantro, roughly chopped

1 garlic clove, peeled

1/4 cup lime juice

1/2 teaspoon honey

1/2 cup extra-virgin olive oil

Pinch of cumin, optional

Kosher salt

Freshly ground black pepper

For the salad:

1 (10- to 12-ounce) bunch curly kale, chopped or torn into small pieces

1/4 small green cabbage, chopped

1 Granny Smith apple, cored and diced

1/2 seedless cucumber, diced

2 stalks celery, diced

3 scallions, thinly sliced

1/3 cup honey roasted peanuts, roughly chopped

1/3 cup dried cherries or Craisins, optional

1/3 cup crumbled feta cheese

Kosher salt

DIRECTIONS

Make the dressing: Add cilantro, garlic, lime juice and honey to a food processor or blender. Blend until the cilantro has been chopped, then slowly stream in the olive oil until you’ve reached your desired consistency. Season to taste with cumin, if using, and salt and pepper.

Make the salad: Add kale to a large bowl along with a pinch of salt. Massage kale for 1-2 minutes until all the leaves are slightly darkened and have softened a bit.

Add chopped green cabbage, apple, cucumber, celery, scallions, peanuts, cherries or Craisins (if using), and crumbled feta. Season to taste with salt.

Pour over desired amount of dressing, and toss gently to combine.

Serves 4-6.

— adapted from delish.com

Eat more plant-based protein: Caramelized Tofu Lettuce Wraps

Fried tofu is topped with chopped peanuts and cilantro inside a lettuce leaf wrap. (Gretchen McKay/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette/TNS)

Derived from non-animal sources, plant-based proteins include legumes, nuts, seeds, whole grains like quinoa and oats, and soy products like tofu (made from pressed soy curds) and tempeh (made from fermented whole soybeans).

Tofu can get a bad rap, not because of a myth that it can cause men to grow breasts (my husband’s hair-brained, unscientific theory), but because of its off-putting texture — sometimes silky, other times spongy.

But if you crumble a block of the protein-rich bean curd into pea-sized pieces, fry it until it’s golden and then toss the crispy bits in a savory-sweet sauce, it’s a fine substitute for ground beef or chicken in a lettuce wrap. That’s especially the case if you add a sprinkle of chopped peanuts on top for a lovely, nutty crunch.

Tofu comes in two varieties: Silken and firm/extra firm. Be sure to use firm tofu, which is pressed to remove more water — and press it again in a clean dish towel weighed down with a skillet to keep it from falling apart in the pan when you cook it.

How good is this dish? Even my husband had to agree he’s been missing out with his boycott.

INGREDIENTS

14-ounce block firm tofu, drained

1/4 cup reduced-sodium soy sauce

3 tablespoons packed dark brown sugar

2 tablespoons unseasoned rice vinegar

1 teaspoon toasted sesame oil

1/2 teaspoon red pepper flakes

1/2 teaspoon fish sauce (optional)

2 tablespoons vegetable oil

1-inch fresh ginger, minced

2 cloves garlic, minced

Butterhead or romaine lettuce, leaves separated, for serving

Cilantro leaves, for serving

Chopped roasted peanuts, for serving

Lime wedges, for serving

DIRECTIONS

Wrap tofu in a clean kitchen towel or paper towels and place on a cutting board. Place a heavy, flat object on top of tofu (like a skillet or baking sheet) and weigh it down with cans or another skillet. Let tofu drain for at least 15 minutes, and up to 45 minutes.

Crumble tofu into a medium bowl using your fingers. The biggest pieces should be about the size of a pea.

In another medium bowl, whisk together soy sauce, sugar, vinegar, sesame oil, red pepper flakes and fish sauce, if using. (It’s OK if the sugar doesn’t dissolve completely; it will once added to the pan.)

In a large cast-iron skillet or nonstick pan over medium-high heat, heat vegetable oil until shimmering. Add tofu, shake into an even layer, and let cook undisturbed until deeply golden on the bottom, about 5 minutes.

Stir the tofu and continue to cook, stirring occasionally, until the tofu is crispy and golden throughout, about 4 minutes more. Add ginger and garlic and cook until fragrant, about 1 minute.

Add soy mixture to pan and cook, stirring occasionally, until no liquid remains, about 3 minutes more.

Add heaping spoonfuls of tofu mixture to the center of each lettuce leaf. Top with cilantro leaves, peanuts and a squeeze of lime before serving.

Serves 2-4

— delish.com

Cut down on saturated fat, salt and sugar: Healthy Apple Crisp

Healthy adults should limit themselves to about 1 teaspoon of salt a day, according to the Mayo Clinic, and keep their intake of saturated fats to 13 grams per day.

Sugar is fine in small amounts in a balanced diet, but it’s really easy to go overboard when you spy a box of cookies on the counter, isn’t it?

Regularly consuming foods and drinks that are high in sugar increases the risk of obesity and tooth decay.

Try this super-easy, old-fashioned apple dessert the next time you get the urge for something sweet. Rolled oats provide fiber (and crunch), while the apple comes packed with Vitamin C, antioxidants and minimal fat.

INGREDIENTS

5 cups sliced, peeled baking apples

6 tablespoons brown sugar, divided

4 tablespoons all-purpose flour, divided

1 teaspoon lemon juice

3/4 teaspoon apple pie spice or allspice, divided

1/4 teaspoon plus a pinch of salt, divided

1/2 cup old-fashioned rolled oats

4 tablespoons unsalted butter

DIRECTIONS

Preheat oven to 375 degrees.

Combine apples, 2 tablespoons brown sugar, 1 tablespoon flour, lemon juice, 1/2 teaspoon apple pie spice and a pinch of salt in a large bowl. Transfer to a 2-quart square baking dish.

Combine 1/2 cup oats and the remaining 4 tablespoons brown sugar, 3 tablespoons flour, 1/4 teaspoon apple pie spice and 1/4 teaspoon salt in a medium bowl.

Cut in 4 tablespoons butter until the mixture resembles coarse crumbs. Sprinkle the topping over the filling.

Bake until the apples are tender and the topping is golden brown, 30-35 minutes. Serve warm.

Serves 4.

— eatingwell.com

Stay hydrated: Orange-Cucumber Salad with Honey Lime Dressing

Eating a salad comprised of fruits with high water content is an easy way to stay hydrated. (Gretchen McKay/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette/TNS)

Are you one of those people who always has an insulated water bottle nearby? Good for you. But just as many of us walk around each day under-hydrated. (Most people need about four to six cups of plain water each day.)

One simple way to get the fluids you need if you’re not a sipper is to eat fruit with high water content. An added benefit: Water-rich fruits like strawberries, cucumbers and oranges also provide essential vitamins, electrolytes and fiber.

This colorful winter salad pairs five fruits with a bright honey-lime dressing. Close your eyes while eating it and you’ll swear it’s summer.

INGREDIENTS

For salad:

1 Granny Smith apple

1/2 seedless cucumber

1 naval orange

1 cup sliced strawberries

1/2 cup blueberries

For dressing

1/4 cup honey

1 teaspoon fresh lime zest

3 tablespoons fresh lime juice

DIRECTIONS

Roughly chop apple and place in a bowl. Slice the cucumbers into half-moons and toss with the apples.

Slice the whole orange into wedges, removing the peel and allowing any orange juice to coat the apple and cucumber pieces. Add berries and stir gently to combine.

Prepare dressing: In small bowl whisk together honey, lime zest and lime juice until well combined.

Plate fruit and drizzle with dressing. Enjoy!

Serves 4-6.

— Gretchen McKay, Post-Gazette

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Lost in the tragic human toll current ICE operations in Minnesota are having is the long-term damage the siege is doing to the state’s economic vitality. Yet, business and economic development leaders have been largely silent despite a decade or more of talk about the importance of attracting a diverse workforce to Minnesota. Make no mistake, we are losing skilled workers in high-demand occupations every day, and the climate of fear, intimidation and trampling of civil rights is certainly making Minnesota an unappealing place for other workers to consider migrating to.

The Minnesota Chamber, Business Partnership, Greater MSP, all talk about the importance of our labor force. The Minnesota Chamber says, for example, “The shortage of available talent has broad consequences, constraining growth in vital sectors such as housing construction, childcare and health care services.” For several years, Greater MSP has focused on talent, saying “the key to growing our economy is people.”

Workers fuel our economy, and we aren’t having enough babies to keep up. Over the years business and industry groups have mounted a range of initiatives to attract talent from elsewhere including from other countries.  And it has worked. These workers have arrived, attained skills and education and become productive and valued employees in a wide array of industries. However, now, when workers are being targeted, those business and industry groups are mum.

This isn’t politics. This is economics. For example, Minnesota’s long-term care sector employs more than 80,000 professionals as Licensed Practical Nurses (LPNs), Certified Nursing Assistants (CNAs), Personal Care Attendants (PCAs) and Home Health Aides (HHAs).  This is in addition to about 8,000 (RNs) Registered Nurses. Nearly one in three CNAs are immigrants who are U.S. citizens who have gone to school to earn credentials. Nearly 14% of Minnesota’s overall healthcare workers are immigrants, and they are leaving Minnesota. Who can blame them? But more critically, who will replace them? We don’t have the workers in the pipeline to fill current demand, let alone enough to meet the needs of our aging population.

The Long-Term Care Imperative, a partnership of Care Providers of Minnesota and Leading Age Minnesota representing short-term care, assisted living, memory care and skilled nursing homes, notes there are some 17,000 caregiver positions vacant right now.

I have seen first-hand workers afraid to come to work at a nursing home where my partner lives with dementia. These immigrants have taken care of her every day for two years by dressing her, helping her eat, engaging with her, bathing her. Yet now they fear for what will happen when they leave their homes (many of which they own) and drive to work. These legal U.S. citizens openly share their fears and serious deliberations about moving to other states and even other countries. One person who is a Trained Medication Aide already has job offers from another facility in a state that isn’t being targeted by ICE.  She also talks about going to another country.  She is partway to earning her LPN degree.  We sure could use another LPN since the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) estimates we will need more than 11,500 LPNs between 2022 and 2032.  But it is highly likely this staff member will leave Minnesota because of what is happening with ICE. I don’t blame her. She doesn’t want to raise her children here. In another instance, an RN who works part-time at the nursing home and part-time at a major Twin Cities hospital also talks about leaving. She knows that other places are desperate for trained nurses.  She says, “I left one country because I was afraid. I will leave this country to not be afraid.”

Every day the current administration’s tactics and policies on immigration are hurting Minnesota’s  economy by driving skilled workers away. Where are the voices of Minnesota’s economic development and business leaders on this issue? How will we ever attract new workers after this? Who will be there to help my partner and the thousands of other residents of nursing homes across the state when the immigrant workforce leaves?

Ellen Watters is a longtime consultant in economic and workforce development, former senior vice president of economic development for the St. Paul Area Chamber of Commerce and former chair of the Ramsey County Workforce Investment Board.

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One central question about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has always been whether Vladimir Putin would be satisfied if allowed to succeed, or if he’d go further, aiming to collapse NATO from within and reestablish a sphere of influence for Moscow that just a few decades ago stretched deep into central Europe. More importantly, could he?

It was U.S. General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwarzkopf who said he judged opponents by their capabilities, not their intentions, and on Thursday night last week Russia sent a reminder that it remains capable.

For only the second time since the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022, it used one of its 12,000 km-per-hour-plus, multi-warhead Oreshnik missiles, targeting a gas-storage facility outside the West Ukrainian city of Lviv. The location, so close to the Polish border, made it clear that this was a message and that the desired audience was European. Putin was telling Europe’s leaders that he can strike anywhere on the continent, using an intermediate-range ballistic missile that would give very little notice or possibility of interdiction.

This has not been a great period for Russia’s military reputation. In recent weeks and months, Moscow has claimed victories in two Donbas cities, only to have Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy show up to parade for the cameras in one, Kupyansk, and for Kyiv’s forces to hold on in the other, Pokrovsk, after well over a year under attack.

In Venezuela, Russian air defenses failed to stop U.S. aircraft and special forces from breaching the capital to abduct President Nicolas Maduro. There were similar failures to protect allies in Iran and Syria last year. And for all the Kremlin’s success in portraying its victory in Ukraine as inevitable, actual advances have been extraordinarily slow and costly.

As former Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan writes on the Oreshnik strike, this was “the sign of a fearful, worried leader with challenges at home and abroad, and not one that is confident and anticipating victory.”

I’d add that Putin was also expressing frustration over the fact that Ukraine and its European partners seem to have persuaded President Donald Trump to back away from his initial embrace of a 28-point, made-in-Moscow plan for ending the war on its terms. The latest, non-Kremlin draft offers Kyiv security guarantees that would involve stationing French and British troops on Ukrainian territory to ensure the ceasefire held. You can argue about how effective those forces would be if tested (likely a key part of the Oreshnik’s intended message), but Putin’s demands when starting the war were that all North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces should be withdrawn from ex-Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union states. He did not fight it to see NATO deploy to Ukraine.

Trump, in an interview with The New York Times, said he had agreed for the U.S. to play a supporting role in those security guarantees because he believed Putin wouldn’t try to break the ceasefire, in any case. Like Schwarzkopf, you have to ask if that confidence is based on assumptions about the Russian leader’s intent, or his capabilities.

You can make a strong case for why Putin shouldn’t want to risk taking on NATO. It would seem a tall order after the heavy weather Russian forces have made of trying to occupy Ukraine. Western estimates of the country’s military losses run as high as 1.2 million personnel killed or wounded, not to mention thousands of tanks, hundreds of aircraft and more than two dozen warships.

Yet this is misleading. For all their problems, Russia’s mobilized, combat-ready armed forces are considerably larger and more experienced than they were four years ago. Personnel have been replaced, command and control improved and Russian troops have developed advantages in drone and electronic warfare that only Ukraine can match. Tank and artillery numbers now seem to matter less. On top of that, an operation to destabilize NATO would likely be a different kind of conflict than the territorial war of attrition in Ukraine.

A new study of improvements in the Chinese and Russian air forces by Justin Bronk, an airpower specialist at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, makes fascinating reading. He points out that most Russian fighter jets destroyed in the war have been models that would not be of much use in a conflict with NATO. And because the vast majority were either hit while empty on the ground, or while in Russian airspace allowing safe ejection, pilot losses have been much lower. Those pilots are far more experienced and able after four years of high-intensity combat than they were in 2022.

In the meantime, Russia has shifted to a war economy, found sources for sanctioned weapons components and built more planes than it has lost old ones. While it has one or two fewer heavy bombers, its air force is bigger and better at its job. The result, says Bronk, is that the West has lost its guarantee of air superiority over China and Russia just as it had become most reliant on that advantage.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is one of many who believe Europe and NATO have nothing to fear from Putin, because he’s “hyper-rational” and would therefore be unwilling to take on Europe, with its advanced if fractured militaries and vastly larger population and economy.

This could be true, but not because Putin is hyperrational. If he were, there would be no war in Ukraine. NATO would still be honoring its 1997 deal not to station troops on the territory of the alliance’s newer East European members, as it did until Russia annexed Crimea and started a war in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine’s constitution would still prohibit it from joining NATO, as it did until December that year. Finland and Sweden would remain neutral. The outlook for Russia’s economy would be rosy, unburdened by sanctions and lost human capital, and made rich by Europe’s once-insatiable demand for its oil and gas.

If you want a reminder of why Putin went to war, read the 7,400-word screed of historical fantasies and resentments he delivered in a televised address three days before the invasion. So yes, it would make no sense for Putin to restart his war in Ukraine, or to launch new declared or hybrid wars aimed at collapsing NATO. But invading Ukraine didn’t add up either. With the conventional, let alone nuclear, capabilities still at his disposal, it’s plain foolish to act based on assumptions about what he intends.

Marc Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. He was previously Istanbul bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal.

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