By MICHELLE L. PRICE and MARY CLARE JALONICK

WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran had determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the finding.

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The National Intelligence Council’s assessment in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report.

The determination undercuts the administration’s assertion that it can complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps in a matter of weeks. The administration has asserted that it was not seeking regime change in Iran, even as President Donald Trump considers whom he would like to see lead the country.

The intelligence assessment concluded that no one powerful or unified opposition coalition was poised to take over in Iran if the leadership was killed, according to the people familiar with the report. It determined that Iran’s establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, the people said.

In line with the assessment’s findings, Iran’s leading clerics on Sunday chose a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed his father, who was killed in the war’s opening salvo. The son is believed to hold views that are even more hardline than his father, and his selection is a strong sign of resistance from Iran’s leadership and an indication the government won’t step aside quickly.

A poster of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor to his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as supreme leader is placed on an anti-riot police car as policemen stand on top of the car, during a rally to support him in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

The details of the assessment were reported earlier by The Washington Post and The New York Times.

Trump and other top administration leaders have given different justifications for the strikes that began on Feb. 28, saying they were necessary to set back Iran’s nuclear weapons program or to preempt an Iranian ballistic missile attack. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the war is not aimed at regime change, Trump has said it’s something he wants to see.

A message seeking comment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence was not immediately returned Monday. Director Tulsi Gabbard fired the council’s acting chairperson last year after the release of a declassified NIC memo that contradicted statements the Trump administration has used to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants.

Trump, dating back to his first term, has been deeply skeptical of the U.S. intelligence community and has frequently dismissed its findings as politically motivated or part of a “deep state” effort to undermine his presidency.

Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, and David Klepper in Washington contributed to this report.

By YURAS KARMANAU

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — Belarusian journalist Pavel Dabravolski was convicted Monday of treason and sentenced to nine years in a maximum-security prison, activists said, the fifth media worker to be jailed in two weeks in a relentless government crackdown on freedom of the press.

Dabravolski, who has reported for international and domestic news outlets and won numerous prizes for his work, was found guilty during a closed-door trial at Minsk City Court, according to the Belarusian Association of Journalists. The 36-year-old most recently worked for BelaPAN, which the Belarusian authorities have designated as extremist.

President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for over three decades, has stayed in power through a relentless crackdown on dissent.

Massive protests broke out following the 2020 elections, which were widely denounced as fraudulent. More than 65,000 people were arrested and thousands were beaten. In the wake of the protests, hundreds of independent media outlets and nongovernmental organizations were shut down and outlawed.

Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said Dabravolski was being targeted by “trumped-up charges.”

“Dabravolski’s only ‘crime’ was doing his job and covering the 2020 protests after the stolen elections,” she said. “We see that the conveyor belt of repression inside Belarus continues unabated.”

Activists have reported a sharp increase in government pressure on Belarus’ media workers.

“Repression is escalating and Dabravolski’s sentence shows that the authorities are increasing pressure on journalists in a country that already has the worst freedom of speech in Europe,” Andrei Bastunets, the head of the journalists’ association, told The Associated Press.

The group says that 28 journalists are imprisoned in Belarus.

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“It contradicts the idea that the human rights situation in Belarus has allegedly improved due to the release of prominent political prisoners,” Bastunets said.

Under Lukashenko, Belarus has faced years of Western isolation and sanctions for repression and for allowing Moscow to use its territory during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He has recently sought to improve relations with the West by releasing hundreds of political prisoners.

Many more remain behind bars, however, with human rights organization Viasna estimating that there are 1,140 political prisoners.

Also on Monday, Belarus’ main security agency, the KGB, designated four independent publishing houses that publish books in the Belarusian language as “extremist” without any explanation.

Lukashenko has made Russian an official language, alongside Belarusian, which like Russian uses the Cyrillic alphabet and is hardly heard spoken on the streets of Minsk and other large cities anymore. Official business is conducted in Russian, which dominates the majority of the media. Lukashenko speaks only Russian, and government officials often don’t use their native tongue.

Viasna activists say that independent book publishers have been facing increased pressure lately, with authorities targeting them with raids and detentions. At least 10 people have been arrested in the last month as part of that campaign, Viasna said.

By DAVID McHUGH, AP Business Writer

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The Iran war has put at risk some of the world’s most critical oil and gas infrastructure — the pipelines, refineries, and shipping terminals that keep energy flowing from the countries around the Persian Gulf to the global economy.

Strikes by Iranian drones have disrupted operations, while risk of Iranian strikes has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for some 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Oil fields in countries including Iraq have cut back output as storage fills up. Qatar, a major supplier of liquefied natural gas, has shut down its exports as well.

“A lot of very critical energy infrastructure has been either forced to shut down because of direct damage from drones and missiles,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, “or because production is effectively being shut in as a result of shipping grinding to a halt. We’re already starting to see some of the global ramifications of that.”

All that has sent prices soaring, raising the cost of everything that needs fuel: flying, running factories, transporting goods, and farming. International benchmark Brent crude has risen from $72.97 the day before the war started to almost $103 on Monday.

Here is the key infrastructure that’s at risk and why it’s important.

Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas terminal, Qatar

The terminal was shut down by state-owned QatarEnergy following a drone strike, dealing a shock to global gas markets since Qatar produces 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company is citing force majeure — in other words, that it’s unable to supply its contracted customers due to circumstances beyond its control.

Ras Laffan, the largest LNG export facility in the world according to the company’s website, draws gas from the world’s largest single gas field and chills it until it is liquid for loading on tankers that take it to customers, primarily in Asia. Gas purchasers in Europe will also feel the pinch as competition gets fiercer for available cargoes.

Ras Tanura port and refinery, Saudi Arabia

Located on the Persian Gulf northeast of Dammam, this is Saudi Aramco’s largest refinery and a port capable of accommodating large tankers. It was temporarily shut down after a drone impact caused a fire.

East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia

Saudi Aramco operates this pipeline from the Aqaiq oil processing center near the Persian Gulf to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, avoiding the Hormuz chokepoint.

Fujairah oil terminal, United Arab Emirates

A key terminal for very large oil tankers on the Gulf of Oman, it is important because it enables Abu Dhabi to export a significant share of its oil without sending it through the Strait of Hormuz. It has been reported as disrupted by the fighting by Rystad Energy data and analytical firm. The port company did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment about its status.

“Iran’s targeting of oil storage in Fujairah isn’t a coincidence; it’s attacking one of the potential reroutings of oil that’s been trapped in the Persian Gulf,” analyst Soltvedt said.

Kharg Island, Iran

A tanker terminal that has handled almost all of Iran’s roughly 1.6 million barrels per day of prewar crude exports, most of it going to China. Iran reportedly accelerated shipments in the days before the war started. Its operational status is unclear.

Leviathan natural gas field, Israel

Israel’s Energy Ministry directed operator Chevron to shut down the field, located 130 kilometers (80 miles) off the shores of Haifa, due to the security situation. It’s the largest natural gas reservoir in the Mediterranean and is a key supplier to Egypt. A shutdown during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran in June led Egypt to curtail gas supplies to industries including fertilizer producers.

Southern Iraqi oil fields

Iraq has suspended output of 1.5 million barrels per day at key fields at Rumaila and West Qurna due to dwindling storage. The Rumaila field is a so-called supergiant, meaning it holds more than a billion barrels in reserves.

Rystad Energy reports Iraq and other Gulf countries are running out of space to put the oil, meaning other fields may shut down. That could bring interruption since once shut down, oil and gas wells may need weeks or months to resume.

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Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in a few days, “it’s going to take time to restart production in some of these fields. It’s not a switch that can be turned on and off,” said Soltvedt. “It’s the same for Qatar in terms of their LNG facility. It will probably take weeks to get some of the facilities up and running again.”

Al Basra Oil Terminal, Iraq

This artificial island located 50 kilometers (30 miles) from shore in the Persian Gulf exports oil worth 80% of Iraqi’s annual GDP from the country’s oil fields.

Bapco refinery, Bahrain

The Sitra Island refinery is the backbone of Bahrain’s oil sector, processing supply from Bahraini fields and delivered from Saudi Arabia via pipeline. A missile strike halted operations and disrupted jet fuel, diesel and other supplies.

By CARA ANNA

Iran has named a son of its late supreme leader as his successor. U.S. President Donald Trump already had expressed disdain for Mojtaba Khamenei, calling him “unacceptable.” The Islamic Republic’s war strategy now has a new commander, and the powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has pledged allegiance.

Oil prices shot above $100 a barrel. Both sides in the war struck new targets over the weekend, including civilian ones. Bahrain accused Iran of hitting one of the desalination plants that are crucial for drinking water in Gulf countries. Israel struck oil depots in Tehran, sending up thick smoke and causing environmental alerts.

The U.S. announced another soldier’s death. Saudi Arabia announced the first deaths there. Anger grew in Arab countries over Iran’s launching of hundreds of missiles and drones around the region. The Israeli military’s chief of staff warned that the war “will take a long time.”

Here’s where things stand as the war enters its 10th day.

A man carries shoes from his destroyed house that was hit by Israeli airstrikes hit several houses in Sir al-Gharbiyeh village south Lebanon, Sunday, March, 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)

Iran

Iran’s announcement of a new supreme leader came after the country’s remaining leadership appeared to show a rift. President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for attacks on neighboring countries, but hard-liners criticized that and said the war strategy would continue.

The new supreme leader had not been seen or heard from publicly since the war began. He has not made a statement in his new role. The younger Khamenei inherits both the war and domestic unrest after Iran earlier this year cracked down on some of its largest protests in half a century.

Iran did not publicly update its death toll over the weekend from the over 1,200 previously reported. More Iranians fled the country.

Israel

Israel attacked both Iran and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in neighboring Lebanon, where authorities say over a half-million people have been displaced and over 300 killed.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed “many surprises” in the next phase of the war. Israel said it destroyed the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard Air Force, which operated the ballistic missile command, and struck ballistic missile launchers and missile production facilities.

Eleven people have died in Israel since the war began. Multiple alerts continued to sound per day across Israel about incoming projectiles, almost all of them intercepted.

An Army carry team moves a flag-draped transfer case with the remains of U.S. Army Reserve soldier Sgt. 1st Class Nicole Amor, of White Bear Lake, Minn., who was killed in a drone strike at a command center in Kuwait after the U.S. and Israel launched its military campaign against Iran, past President Donald Trump during a casualty return, Saturday, March 7, 2026, at Dover Air Force Base, Del. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

United States

The U.S. military warned Iranians to stay indoors, asserting that Iran was launching attacks from densely populated areas. Evidence mounted indicating that the U.S. was behind the deadly strike on a girls’ school in Iran on the first day of the war, but Trump suggested Iran was to blame.

Trump also attended the return of the remains of U.S. soldiers killed in the war. Seven have been killed.

Families of U.S. detainees in Iran worried their loved ones are at risk.

The U.S. military did not give an update over the weekend on the number of missiles and drones that Iran has fired in recent days, after saying the rate had gone down sharply. Experts said it’s possible that Iran is holding back some missiles in reserve.

Middle East

The head of the Arab League called Iran’s war strategy “reckless” as Gulf and other nations reported intercepting Iranian missiles and drones in areas of their countries with no U.S. military presence.

No country other than the U.S. and Israel has said it is attacking Iran. Some countries in the region host U.S. military facilities or troops. Iran has urged countries not to allow the U.S. to attack it from their territories. A missile hit a helicopter landing pad in the U.S. Embassy complex in Iraq.

More deaths were reported. Saudi Arabia said a falling military projectile killed two people from Bangladesh. Kuwait said two border guards were killed, and the United Arab Emirates reported a driver killed.

Foreign residents and workers have made up most of the reported deaths in the Gulf. Over a dozen people have been killed there in all.

Globally

The U.S. sought to assure Americans that surging fuel prices are a short-term problem. Russia is profiting from the surge.

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Many travelers and pilgrims remain stranded in the Middle East. The U.S. State Department said over 32,000 Americans have left the region since the war began.

Nervousness remained around some of the world’s busiest air hubs. Passengers waiting for flights at Dubai International Airport were ushered into train tunnels after several blasts were heard. Kuwait said fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport were targeted by drones.

More states are becoming involved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country will send experts to advise the U.S. and Middle Eastern allies on repelling Iranian drone attacks next week.