Let’s be clear about something. This isn’t a story about tanking. The concept of trying to lose games with hopes of garnering a better draft pick is nearly impossible to pull off in the NFL.
Not only are players too prideful to sacrifice the limited amount of opportunities they have to play, they also run the risk of suffering a major injury if they aren’t at the top of their games.
No, the Vikings won’t be trying to lose to the Detroit Lions on Thursday afternoon at U.S. Bank Stadium, even if that’s what a large chunk of the fan base might secretly be cheering for when they tune in.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the Vikings beating the Lions on Christmas would be the best outcome based on how everything has gone this season. Not when looking at the ramifications a win could have on the schedule next season.
Though the actual order of games won’t be released for a while, the Vikings already know almost all of their upcoming opponents on the schedule.
The rotational formula the NFL uses has the Vikings playing every team in the NFC North twice, as well as every team in the NFC South and AFC East once. Aside from that, the Vikings also will play the same-place finisher in the NFC East, NFC West, and AFC South.
If the Vikings beat the Lions on Christmas, they would leapfrog them in the NFC North and as a result of no longer being at the bottom of the standings, they would likely sacrifice a more favorable schedule next season.
Let’s take a look at what that look at what’s at stake:
If the Vikings beat the Lions …
A win would vault the Vikings into third place in the NFC North. Though their placement could actually flip flop once more depending on what happens in the final week; the Vikings would hold the tiebreaker over the Lions if they finished with the same record.
In that scenario, the Vikings would be position to play the Washington Commanders (NFC East), either the San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams (NFC West), and the Indianapolis Colts (AFC South) next season.
That would certainly make life harder on the Vikings compared to the alternative. All of those teams present their own set of challenges on paper, which, in turn, means the Vikings couldn’t pencil in a win over any of them.
If the Vikings lose to the Lions …
A loss would lock the Vikings into last place in the NFC North. It would also finalize their upcoming opponents on the schedule because all of the same-place finishers would be set across the board.
That means the Vikings would know they are playing the New York Giants (NFC East), Arizona Cardinals (NFC West), and the Tennessee Titans (AFC South) next season — a much easier road for the Vikings compared to the alternative. All of those teams are in the midst of their own rebuilds, and while nothing can be assumed, the Vikings would probably be favored in each matchup.
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