Democratic-Farmer-Labor Sen. Nicole Mitchell has resigned after her felony burglary conviction, and the special election to choose her replacement could shake up the balance of power at the state Capitol.
The race for Mitchell’s Woodbury seat is one of at least six special elections likely to take place this year, matching a record high for the state Legislature. And it figures to attract the most money and attention as the most competitive seat up for grabs so far this year, political observers and former elected officials say.
Last year’s election gave the state its most closely divided government ever: a House tied 67-67 between Republicans and DFLers and a Senate split 34-33 with the DFL holding the advantage.
That already tight political balance at the Capitol has been further complicated by an unusual number of vacancies this year due to deaths, criminal cases and a candidate residency dispute. Each time a House or Senate seat is vacated, control of either chamber is thrown into question.
There have been three special elections so far this year, and it’s likely there will be three more, including for Mitchell’s seat. Gov. Tim Walz has said he hopes those special elections will take place before the Legislature convenes in February.
Mitchell’s Senate District 47 and an earlier district that shared a similar footprint have favored Democratic Farmer-Labor candidates in recent years, though the East Metro suburbs are not as historically Democratic as the urban center.
Mitchell won the district in 2022 with nearly 59% of the vote. But former Woodbury lawmakers and others say Republicans might be able to play the unique circumstances of the race to their advantage.
Representation argument
Woodbury DFLer Kathy Saltzman, who represented parts of Washington County in the state Senate from 2007 to 2011, said some in the area are frustrated with what she called a lack of representation since Mitchell’s April 2024 arrest for breaking into her estranged stepmother’s home.
Some DFLers called for Mitchell to step down immediately, but the Senate majority instead stripped Mitchell of her committee assignments, removed her from caucus meetings and blocked GOP-led efforts to hold expulsion votes.
“The DFL wanted her 34th vote, and yet they really, in some ways, did not honor and respect our community having full representation,” she said.
Mitchell introduced eight bills this year, Saltzman said. That’s fewer than any other member of the Senate, according to the Revisor of Statutes office. In her first two years in office, she sponsored 87.
Amy Koch, a political strategist and former Republican Senate majority leader, said most special elections so far have been fairly one-sided as they’ve been in solidly partisan districts, but Mitchell’s seat could be different because of the representation issue.
“If you make it about that in a special, lots can happen,” she said of Mitchell remaining in office 15 months after her arrest. “I think there’s going to be a lot of money poured into Woodbury. …This is for all the marbles.”
DFL path to victory
DFL Chair Richard Carlbom called the representation argument “foolish,” noting the senator was taking her remaining days in office to, among other things, complete legislative projects and address constituent services.
But beyond that, Woodbury heavily favors Democrats these days, and the two DFL candidates vying for the nomination so far — Woodbury DFL Reps. Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger and Ethan Cha — are current DFL House members who each handily won their districts in 2022 and 2024.
“They’re wildly popular with their constituents, and I think the entire Senate district is going to be excited about the next senator that they have — who is a Democrat,” Carlbom said.
In the race, DFL candidates will focus on their achievements in 2023 and 2024 when they still had control of state government, such as universal free school meals and a new child tax credit, Carlbom said.
While no Republican candidates have announced their intention to run as of Friday, former Woodbury Republican Rep. Kelly Fenton said the ideal candidate would be a moderate. Besides questions about Mitchell, Fenton hopes Republicans will offer solutions to a looming $6 billion state deficit and fraud that’s taken hundreds of millions of dollars in government money.
Saltzman said voters also will want candidates who focus on local issues, such as addressing chemical contamination in the water supply linked to 3M manufacturing, which will require state funding for water treatment. Passing a bonding bill would be key to funding those projects.
Record-setting year
Criminal cases, lawmaker deaths and a residency dispute have led to an unusually high number of special elections in the Minnesota Legislature this year. 1994 was the only other year with six, according to Minnesota’s Legislative Reference Library.
If a DFL House member wins in the Woodbury Senate race, that could open the door to a seventh special election this year, depending on when Walz decides to call it.
Each vacancy has shifted the partisan balance at the Capitol.
The current makeup of the legislature, which is not scheduled to convene again until February, is 34 DFLers and 32 Republicans in the Senate and 67 Republicans and 66 DFLers in the House.
Here’s a look at special elections so far and what could happen next:
The December death of Minneapolis DFL Sen. Kari Dziedzic led to a special election to fill that seat in January.
A House district in Roseville and Shoreview had a special election in March after winning DFL candidate Curtis Johnson was disqualified for living outside the district.
Neither race was particularly competitive as they were safe DFL strongholds.
Likewise, Republicans comfortably reclaimed a northern Minnesota Senate seat in April after the resignation of Sen. Justin Eichorn, R-Grand Rapids, who is accused of trying to hire an underage girl for sex.
Two seats opened up by lawmaker deaths are also unlikely to change party hands later this year. Northern Hennepin County voters in September will elect a successor for Rep. Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park, the former House speaker assassinated in June. And Walz is expected to call a special election in the solidly-red District 29 after Sen. Bruce Anderson, R-Buffalo, died unexpectedly last week.
There could be a record seventh special election this year if one of the Woodbury DFL state representatives wins Mitchell’s seat. Both candidates’ House districts fall within the Senate district. Each in their second terms in office, Hemmingsen-Jaeger won reelection last year with 61% of the vote and Cha with 54%.
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