After a first half that included the highs of a 13-game winning streak and the lows of a 9-18 record in June, the Twins hit the all-star break on Sunday hovering around .500 and still technically in the hunt for a playoff berth.
There is plenty of baseball left to be played — 66 games, to be exact — starting Friday evening in Denver against the Colorado Rockies. The next couple of weeks before the July 31 trade deadline will be of particular importance to a team that could in theory be buyers or sellers.
With that said, here’s a look at five questions for the second half of the season:
How will the Twins approach the trade deadline?
The answer to this question could be much different if the Twins had gone 3-6 on their last homestand, rather than 6-3. But they played good baseball and kept themselves in the race.
While the Detroit Tigers have a firm grip on the lead in the division — they have the best record in the major leagues and lead the second-place Twins by 11½ games — there are still three Wild Card postseason spots up for grabs.
The Twins are four games out of a berth with five teams in front of them, one tied with them and two right behind. But, anything could happen in the second half of the season, and FanGraphs gives them a 23 percent chance to make the playoffs.
How they play over the next several days should provide some clarity ahead of the trade deadline.
While aggressive buying doesn’t seem to be their path, the the Twins could decide to make some upgrades around the edges to push for a playoff spot. They also could stand pat, more or less what they did the last couple of years despite being in a much better position to make the playoffs.
If they sell, the Twins could opt to only deal from their group of impending free agents — Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, Ty France, Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez — or they could net a larger return by moving a player under team control beyond this year.
Either way, their moves at the deadline will be telling.
Pablo Lopez #49 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Detroit Tigers during the second inning at Comerica Park on July 26, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
What will the Twins get from their rotation?
At the very least, the Twins should get some rotation upgrades before the deadline in the form of some of their own players coming back from injury.
Zebby Matthews threw four scoreless innings, giving up just a hit and striking out nine Sunday in a rehab assignment with the Triple-A Saints. His return is nearing.
It would seem Bailey Ober is getting close to a return, as well, though it’s hard to predict exactly what the Twins might get from him. The picture of consistency for the past few seasons, Ober had a turbulent June — he gave up 30 runs in as many innings pitched — and was finally shut down with a hip impingement, something that he said first started bothering him near the end of spring training.
Will Ober, once fully healed from the injury, look like himself again?
The Twins also are anticipating getting ace Pablo López back at some point from a Grade 2 teres major strain, which should provide a significant boost for the rotation. At the time of his injury, López had a 2.82 earned-run average across 11 starts.
Will Byron Buxton finish Top 10 in MVP voting?
Byron Buxton’s first half of the season was spectacular, one of the consistent bright spots during an up-and-down first half.
What will he do for his follow up act? If it looks anything like his first half, Buxton could finish in the Top 10 — or potentially even Top 5 — in American League MVP voting which, thanks to his contract structure, would entitle him to a bonus. Buxton would earn a $3 million bonus for finishing between sixth and 10th place.
He could earn $4 million for a fifth-place finish, and an additional $1 million for higher finishes, up to $8 million for bein the AL MVP.
Save for a concussion after a collision with shortstop Carlos Correa, Buxton was healthy the entire first half and hit .289 with a .925 OPS. He hit 21 home runs and was a perfect 17 for 17 in stolen base attempts. Last Saturday, he hit for the cycle, electrifying the Target Field crowd two days before he left for the All-Star Game in Atlanta.
There, Buxton hit a pair of doubles and helped the AL tie the game in the ninth inning before falling in a home run swing-off.
No matter what happens with the rest of the team, and provided he stays healthy, Buxton should provide some late-season excitement.
Carlos Correa #4 of the Minnesota Twins reacts after striking out against the Milwaukee Brewers in the fifth inninig at Target Field on June 20, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Ellen Schmidt/Getty Images)
Will the Twins get more offensive from key pieces?
The Twins couldn’t ask for much more from Buxton, but he needs help and other key lineup cogs. Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner, for instance, haven’t performed up to expectations.
It’s been a season of searching for Correa, who after an all-star season last year has seen his numbers dip across the board. He’s currently hitting .264 with a .694 OPS, the lowest of his career. The Twins’ most-handsomely paid player has a 0.1 bWAR.
Lewis, in between injuries, is hitting just .216, and his 61 OPS+ is 39 percent worse than the league’s average hitter. He has encountered deep slumps, at one point going 0 for 36, and though he’s been somewhat better of late, the Twins need more from him. Lewis has hit just two home runs in his 42 games and currently has a negative bWAR.
And Wallner, who was among the most productive players on the roster before injuring his hamstring, was out for a month and a half before returning at the end of May. Since then, he’s hitting just .176 in 37 games. Wallner, who has a career 129 OPS+, is at 102 currently (100 is league average).
Will there be sale news?
There have been some whispers about the Twins’ potential sale, but it’s been mostly quiet on that front since news of Justin Ishbia dropped his bid, and increased his stake in the rival Chicago White Sox, in late February. The Pohlad family is reportedly seeking a sale price in the neighborhood of $1.5 billion.
Commissioner Rob Manfred, speaking to members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday morning in Atlanta, expressed his belief that a sale of the club would, in fact, take place.
“I know some things that you don’t know,” Manfred said. “I can tell you with a lot of confidence that there will be a transaction there, and it will be consistent with the kind of pricing that has taken place. There will be a transaction. We just need to be patient while they rework.”
So, will there be any news in the second half of the season? Will a new ownership group be in place to make offseason moves? At this point, it’s still a waiting game.
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