Twenty-five years in, and the state of Texas has only elected two governors in the 21st Century, two lieutenant governors, and two attorney generals. The current governor was elected AG in 2002 to succeed the first GOP attorney general since Reconstruction, who himself ascended to the United States Senate and has remained in that seat ever since. Today’s attorney general, who succeeded the now-governor, is now ramping up for a likely primary campaign to oust said U.S. senator.
Such is the age of Republican domination in Texas, largely marked by remarkable entrenchment in the statewide power structure interrupted by occasional bursts of incestuous conflict.
There are no term limits for these offices in the Lone Star State, but that didn’t prevent a healthy level of churn among the top ranks of statewide office throughout most of Texas’ political history—even in the bygone era of Democrats’ one-party rule.
John Cornyn and Mitch McConnell in 2018 (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call, CQ Roll Call via AP Images)
Not so much with Republicans. Under red rule, Texas has not just returned to a one-party state; it’s a one-party state controlled by just a very few politicians, who’ve used their longevity to consolidate unprecedented levels of power. Governor Greg Abbott has methodically expanded the once-limited realm of gubernatorial authority and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick has reshaped the once independent-minded Senate into a body of one.
For those top two, this is a time for cementing legacies, and they seemingly have no intent of leaving anytime soon. Abbott is singularly focused on passing school vouchers into law—a policy goal that eluded his two GOP predecessors. And if he wins a fourth term in 2026, he’ll be on the precipice of surpassing his predecessor Rick Perry as the state’s longest serving top executive.
Patrick, who was at various times rumored to be considering a primary challenge against Abbott, appears to have grown content with mastering his green-carpeted domain in the Texas Senate. The lite guv, 75, also claims to be all in on running for a fourth term. While he’ll almost certainly be unable to surpass Lieutenant Governor Bill Hobby Jr.’s record 18-year reign, Patrick surely has a few things up his sleeve to cap his career.
The logjam at the top has also extended to the lesser statewide positions such as the comptroller, land commissioner, and agriculture commissioner. Those relatively entry-level positions have long served as a training ground for higher office. But with such entrenchment, the only way for ambitious Republicans to move up is to try to take out one of their superiors—a dicey option. Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush tried to do it with an imperiled Attorney General Ken Paxton in 2022; he failed miserably, and now his political career is all but over. (His replacement, Dawn Buckingham, seems to be using the office as a launch pad for future higher office as well.)
Comptroller Glenn Hegar, who was long harboring aims for governor or lieutenant governor, apparently grew tired of waiting. In March, he accepted a post as chancellor of the Texas A&M University System—replacing John Sharp, another former comptroller.
Within hours of that news, GOP candidates were already rolling out their campaigns to take the open office in the 2026 elections. The former tea-party state senator and failed guv challenger Don Huffines is promising to wield the comptroller’s office as a DOGE-like weapon. Longtime Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick, a more traditional conservative and heir to her ex-speaker father’s political fortune, has also jumped at this rare opportunity for a promotion.
The headliner for the 2026 Republican primaries, though, will be an especially rare showdown between two heavyweights—Paxton versus U.S. Senator John Cornyn. It’s a battle that’s been simmering for years now, as the two have traded potshots back and forth.
Paxton has teased a potential challenge to Cornyn for some time, blasting him as an anti-MAGA establishment swamp creature who helped enact new gun laws and supported U.S. aid to Ukraine during the Biden presidency. In early April, Paxton made it official that he’s taking on Cornyn, who’s held the seat for over 20 years. Paxton-world has commissioned polls showing him well ahead of Cornyn in a primary, and the press-averse AG has gone on a media tour that includes not just his typical MAGA podcast circuit but also Washington insider outlets and even The New York Times.
“I think I can win if I have $20 million,” Paxton told the Capitol Hill tabloid Punchbowl News. “I think it’s just time. … He’s had his chance. He hasn’t performed well, and the voters know it. You can go a long time without people paying attention. And they’re paying attention now.”
While Cornyn lost his bid for the long-coveted Republican Majority Leader position, he hasn’t lost his taste for politics. In late March, he officially announced his (fourth) reelection campaign with a video in which he firmly latched on to 47’s ill-fitted coat tails: “President Trump needs a partner who is battle-tested,” he intoned.
It’s no less an awkward tact than his last reelection in 2020, when he remixed his old campaign jingle “Big John” to include a nod to “Big Don.” Much like his crestfallen mentor Mitch McConnell, the Corndog has struggled to navigate Trump’s takeover of the GOP. Soon after January 6th, 2021, the senior senator—in a move he likely regrets today—declared it was time for Trump to move on.
That’s a weakness that Paxton, who is something of a cult hero in MAGA-world, is hoping to exploit. The timing may be perfect for the long-embattled AG, as he has shed himself of all his legal baggage—securities fraud charges settled, impeachment charges acquitted, a years-long Department of Justice investigation reportedly closed.
And with Trump back in the White House, Paxton no longer even has a federal government to incessantly sue. Many of his top deputies have already been hired away by the new administration. What better time to go to Washington?
And what, you may ask, about that long-suffering opposition force in this one-party state? Democrats’ hopes of pulling off statewide victory in Texas have been rather thoroughly decimated over the last three cycles.
But, as always, the party will start to convince itself that the next election will be different. And, of course, one can always find reason for a shred of optimism. The 2024 cycle was a disaster for Democrats all across the country. And the shellacking of Beto O’Rourke in 2022 came on highly unfavorable terrain for a Democrat in Texas.
The 2026 elections could play out similarly to the 2018 anti-Trump midterms that fueled Dems’ best performance in recent history. That made for rough sledding for junior U.S. Senator Ted Cruz. If Paxton, the GOP’s weakest statewide general-election candidate, does win the Senate primary, he could fare even worse than Cruz, should Dems field a compelling opponent (far from a given).
Paxton’s Senate bid also means that the attorney general’s office will be up for grabs. The winner of the GOP primary will all but certainly be someone with no statewide profile, quite possibly a far-right Paxton acolyte without the benefits of incumbency. Those odds could be the closest to even that a Texas Dem is going to get.
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