Minnesota United vs. FC Dallas: Keys to the match, storylines and a prediction

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Minnesota United vs. FC Dallas

When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Allianz Field
Stream: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Radio: KSTP-AM, 1500
Weather: 54 degrees, clear skies, 6 mph south wind
Betting line: MNUFC minus-150; draw plus-300; Dallas plus-360

Form: Loons (4-1-3, 15 points) are unbeaten in seven straight matches, including a scoreless draw at Toronto last weekend. United’s point total is the best in club history through eight matches. Dallas (3-3-2, 11 points) is coming off a 1-0 loss to Seattle Sounders.

Context: United is unbeaten at home (2-0-1) so far this season and will have five of its next seven matches in St. Paul.

Recent matchups: Dallas throttled MNUFC 5-3 in Frisco, Texas last June; the most goals an Eric Ramsay side has allowed in the MLS regular season. Petar Musa posted a hat trick within 62 minutes. Less than two weeks earlier, the two sides played to a 1-1 draw in St. Paul.

Look-ahead: Minnesota will face schedule congestion around the corner: an MLS away game at Austin (May 3), at Louisville City in U.S. Open Cup (May 7) and the most-circled MLS game of the season, hosting Inter Miami and Lionel Messi (May 10).

Deadline: MLS’ primary transfer window closes on Wednesday and head coach Eric Ramsay addressed how active Loons might be in the final days:

“We will certainly have our finger on the pulse to how things are moving over the course of the coming weeks. We are obviously in a relatively good place and the form is suggesting that. I don’t think anyone from the club is looking at us in desperate need.”

Buzz: The Loons roster is filled with NBA fans and many were angling on Friday for tickets to Game 3 of the Timberwolves-Lakers series at Target Center. Games 1 and 4 directly conflict with MNUFC’s schedule.

Absences: Owen Gene (ankle), Kipp Keller (hamstring) and Hassani Dotson (knee) are out.

Quote: Robin Lod was an MLS All-Star last season, but the 32-year-old has not contributed to a goal this year. Ramsay said Lod’s play has “often been at the heart” of the team’s review meetings.

“He had such an exceptional year last year in terms of numbers and big moments that I think anything in comparison to that is going to leave people wanting. But I feel like we are in a really good place if we are getting the results and we are yet to see the very best of Robin. We are seeing it moments. I’m not worried about that and I’m sure he will come good.”

Scouting report: Dallas spent $5 million in a cash-for-player trade to acquire Lucho Acosta in February. The 2023 MLS MVP has three goals but no assists in 708 minutes. Musa has been more of a talisman, with three goals and three assists in 673 minutes.

Big question: Will Musa play? The Dallas Designated Player was stretchered off the field with an ankle injury in stoppage time on Saturday night.

‘Stats: Dallas has been held under 0.7 expected goals in three games this season, including 0.6 versus Seattle last weekend. Minnesota has held four opponents under that xG mark, including Toronto last Saturday.

Prediction: If Musa doesn’t play, more attention will be paid to Acosta and that will play into United’s ability to produce its fifth clean sheet of the season. Loons earn a 1-0 win.

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