Minnesota United at Toronto FC: Keys to match, projected XI, a prediction

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Minnesota United at Toronto FC

When: 1:30 p.m. CT
Where: BMO Field, Toronto
Stream: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Radio: KSTP-AM, 1500
Weather: 45 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph south wind
Betting line: Toronto plus-180; draw plus-250; Minnesota plus-140

Form: MNUFC (4-1-2, 14 points) extended its unbeaten streak to six games with a 2-1 win over New York City last Sunday. Toronto (0-4-3, 3 points) is winless in seven consecutive games to start the season but had a 1-1 draw against defending Supporters Shield winner Inter Miami last weekend.

Recent matchups: Loons are 1-2-1 against Toronto in MLS but the teams haven’t played since a 1-1 draw in St. Paul in June 2023.

Flashback: The Loons’ last game in Ontario, in 2019, was also Francisco Calvo’s final game as captain. The Costa Rican was sent off with a red card and traded to Chicago Fire within a month. Calvo accused former manager Adrian Heath of throwing him in the trash; Ozzie Alonso became club captain.

Check-in: MNUFC2 improved to 3-0 with a 4-2 win over Sporting Kansas City II on Wednesday. The Loons’ developmental team’s offense has been led by two second-round draft picks — Logan Dorsey (three goals) and Kieran Chandler (three assists) — and an undrafted former college player, goalkeeper Wessel Speel.

News: The MLS Board of Governors said Thursday any potential schedule move to a fall-to-spring season would not take effect until after the 2027 season at the earliest.

Absences: MF Hassani Dotson (knee), MF Owen Gene (ankle) and CB Kipp Keller (hamstring) are out.

Projected XI: In a 5-3-2 formation, FW Tani Oluwaseyi, FW Kelvin Yeboah; MF Joaquin Pereyra, MF Robin Lod, MF Wil Trapp; LWB Joseph Rosales, CB Nicholas Romero, CB Michael Boxall, CB Jefferson Diaz, RWB Bongi Hlongwane; GK Dayne St. Clair.

Storyline: It’s a homecoming for Oluwaseyi and St. Clair. Both Loons standouts grew up in the Toronto area but have not played an MLS match at BMO Field since joining MNUFC.

Scouting report: Toronto has struggled to score goals — three in the past five games — but Italian midfielder Federico Bernardeschi remains a threat. The high-priced former Juventus player leads the Reds with two goals and two assist this season.

Stats: MNUFC are dead last in possession in MLS (34%) but lead the league in shots on counter attacks (10) so far this season, according to Sportec.

Prediction: Toronto has allowed the third-most goals (13) in MLS this season, and the Loons’ attacking trio of Yeboah, Oluwaseyi and Pereyra have been hot. MNUFC wins 2-0.

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