There has been a lot of dialogue in recent years over the decline of the NBA.
Ratings fluctuate, and they weren’t good for the Association this fall when the pro season battled with football and the coverage of a presidential election.
Then came the all-star break, in which the NBA’s lackluster exhibition squared off with an international, NHL-sponsored hockey competition the likes of which we haven’t seen in a decade.
Those moments were perfect opportunities to open the closet and pull out the trusty bag of complaints centered on the state of today’s professional basketball: They don’t play defense. You can’t touch someone without it being a foul. Too many 3-pointers, not enough dunks.
There are plenty of valid complaints about the way the NBA operates as a league. Players have missed too many games in recent years, though that issue has largely been curtailed. Still, 82 games is too many, and the travel schedule is often nonsensical, so any night you show up to the arena, there’s a chance your favorite player may not be in uniform.
That stinks.
The roster movement, while exciting to track, can be unflattering. It’s nauseating to hear how often a star player is distraught with an organization, and vice versa. You’re not unreasonable for wishing that more players would remain with their teams throughout the length of their mutually agreed upon contracts.
But the actual quality of play has not dwindled — quite the opposite. It seems every attack on the state of play can be debunked through data dating back to when play-by-play arrived in time for the 1996-97 season. For many, that’s smack dab in the middle of the Glory Days.
No defense?
Twenty-eight years ago, even with less shooting on the floor and pre-rules changes that aided offensive success, Utah shot 50.4% from the floor. That would rank second in today’s NBA. The New Jersey Nets were the worst shooting team in 1996-97 at 42.2%. Charlotte is 30th this season at 42.5%.
Teams are getting stops at the same rate.
Overall point totals are skyrocketing because teams are taking more efficient shots, such as the 3-pointer, and the overall number of possessions is soaring as pace increases. Memphis averages 104 possessions per game this season, compared to the 84 that Cleveland averaged in 1996-97.
No-touch league?
The Toronto Raptors this season lead the NBA with an average of 21.4 fouls committed per game. That same number would have put them in the top 10 for least fouls committed during the ’96-’97 campaign. Atlanta committed the fewest fouls per game that season, with an average of 19.4. Miami is averaging 15.9 fouls this season.
Memphis leads the NBA with 24.6 free throws attempted per game. That would have ranked 17th in the league 28 years ago, when the 76ers led the NBA with a jaw-dropping 29.9 free throws a game.
It’s all 3-pointers?
Surely, that last number is because teams attacked the basket more back then, while NBA offenses are set up to get players 3-point looks now.
The reality is the percentage of points teams score in the paint versus 28 years ago is nearly identical. The Washington Bullets scored 49% of their points in the paint in the 96-97 season, the highest mark in the NBA. Denver currently leads the NBA in the same stat at … 49%.
The Chicago Bulls were in the basement in the category 28 years ago at 35.6%. The team currently ranked No. 30 overall in the NBA in percentage of points in the paint is Boston, at 35.7%.
Drive, they said
At a more granular level, Second Spectrum tracking data became available starting with the 2013-14 season. Included in that is the number of times a player “drives” the ball and the result of those attempts.
Of players with more than 300 drives in a season, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony were both fouled on more than 15% of their drives in the 2013-14 campaign. This year, Karl-Anthony Towns has the highest number at 14.9%
In total, 21 high-volume drivers drew fouls on more than 10% of their drives a decade ago. That number is down to just 12 this season, and doesn’t include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been criticized for his high volume of free-throw attempts this season. But he only draws fouls on 9.7% of his driving attempts, and goes to the stripe so frequently because his number of driving attempts (1,141) far exceeds his contemporaries.
The middle
The general consensus is correct about 3-point attempts being way up. The Heat led the NBA in tries 28 years ago at 22.7 per game. That is nine attempts fewer than Denver, dead last in 3-point attempts this season at 31.4. Last place in 3-point attempts in the 96-97 season? Utah … with 11.
Boston currently leads the NBA at 48.4 3-point looks per game.
If NBA teams nearly three decades ago weren’t taking even half as many 3s, and weren’t scoring more in the paint, where were the other attempts coming from aside from the free-throw line? The mid-range.
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) dunks the ball while under pressure from Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams (5) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025, in Los Angeles. Dunks are far more frequent today than they were 20 years ago. (AP Photo/William Liang)
The Kings lead the NBA this season with 14.7 mid-range shots per game. That would have been last in the NBA in 1997 by nine attempts. The Bulls fired off an astounding 41.5 mid-range shots to lead the league that season. The Hawks are taking 5.6 such attempts this year.
Teams had to shoot from closer to the bucket because the 3-point shooting ability simply didn’t often exist. And even on the rosters where it did, the math problem had not yet been solved to reveal the advantage in efficiency.
So, defenses were able to condense and pack the paint to the degree where the NBA had to add a defensive 3 seconds violation prior to the 2001-02 season to prevent teams from parking a defender in the paint.
Even with that rule in place, it wasn’t until the game was truly spaced out by shooters that the sheer volume of dunks took off. An over-extended defense simply can’t defend the rim at the same rate.
Twenty years ago, Shaquille O’Neal led the NBA in dunks with 213. No. 2 was Kenyon Martin with 134. Those are microscopic numbers compared to last season, when Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 251, closely followed by 248 from Rudy Gobert. Martin’s 134 slams from 20 seasons prior would have finished in a tie for 14th a year ago.
So …
While nostalgia reigns supreme when creating the perceptions of pro basketball of yesteryear and that of today’s game, the stats show the case. Yes, there are more 3-pointers, but there are also far more dunks and significantly fewer free throws amid what’s become a much faster-paced game.
By most accounts, that would equal a better brand of basketball.
But if you’re someone who craves walking the ball up the floor, mid-range jumpers, post ups and endless free throws, yes, sorry, your version of the NBA is likely not returning anytime soon.
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