MORGAN, Minn. — Minnesota’s farmers could smile about cooler weather as Minnesota Farmfest kicked off on Tuesday, Aug. 6, even if they had little to smile about related to their marketing options amid what’s been a significant drop in grain prices in 2024.
That negative tone could be felt by CHS grain originator Patti Uhrich, who joked that her title would be more accurate as “therapist” following the more rosy marketing conditions of 2023. She tries to walk producers through these difficult marketing decisions daily in her work.
“It is tough. It is hard for you, it’s hard for us,” Uhrich said.
Farmfest ran from Tuesday to Thursday at the Gilfillan Estate southeast of Redwood Falls. The show uses 50 acres of land to showcase products, services and technologies from over 500 exhibitors and vendors. Farmfest traditionally features panels and debates on farm policy and political races.
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Uhrich offered some marketing tips including having a marketing plan and sticking to that plan. She shared that communication is key between buyers and sellers. She suggested producers take any increase in prices as an opportunity to sell.
“Suck it up and sell,” Ulrich said bluntly to a question about those holding on to 2023 unpriced grain. “I hate to say that, but let it go.”
Some producers may need to sell well below their expectations and below production costs.
“If we see a cash price that is above breakeven or is profitable, we need to take advantage of that,” Uhrich said. “And your risk is low. You know what you are going to get.”
A question from the audience was whether the prices had hit bottom. Uhrich said that, seasonally, that would be the case. She was hopeful that they had.
“Is the low in? We can all hope so,” Uhrich said.
But with an outlook of excellent crops in large parts of the Corn Belt, including estimates of 300 bushel corn in Illinois, it does not look like supply is going to go down very soon.
“We’ve got a lot of supply and we don’t have very much demand. I don’t know if the low is in there,” she said.
According to a chart Uhrich showed, seasonally, this would be the time prices bottom out.
Safety net security
This year is one in which producers will likely lean into crop insurance for support as many see moisture damage and reduced prices. It was brought up time after time among producers that crop insurance needs to remain strong or be stronger as they look toward a new farm bill.
Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, talks at Farmfest on Aug. 6, 2024, near Morgan, Minn. (Michael Johnson / Agweek)
Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, said crop insurance support would be vital for farmers like him where he farms in Wells. He said conditions were the worst they’ve been in 25 years for growing due to excessive moisture. It’s going to be a year where marketing decisions are going to be tough for those with remaining stocks.
“We are well below the cost of production in most cases,” Johnson said. He said different marketers are trying to help get grain sold, but he sees plenty of grain remaining in storage as the next harvest is coming into sight.
Poor growing in Minnesota is not putting enough pressure on the market to cause a significant rise in prices, yet. Farmfest organizer and moderator Kent Thiesse posed the question to Uhrich if she felt that the estimated 181.3 bushels per acre for Minnesota was realistic given the poor growing conditions in southern Minnesota.
“I really don’t think it’s realistic,” she said. She felt growing troubles go well beyond Minnesota this year.
If yield estimates are reduced, it’s unlikely to be seen until USDA’s January report, Uhrich explained.
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