TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The winner of the NFC South will have a losing record and be crowned at home watching on television.
Baker Mayfield threw a touchdown pass to Cade Otton, Chase McLaughlin kicked three field goals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers avoided elimination with a sloppy 16-14 victory over the Carolina Panthers on a rain-soaked Saturday.
The Buccaneers (8-9) need New Orleans (6-10) to beat or tie Atlanta (7-9) on Sunday to clinch a fifth straight NFC South title.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) reacts after a defensive stop during the first half of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Jason Behnken)
If the Falcons win, the Panthers (8-9) will secure their first division championship since coach Ron Rivera and quarterback Cam Newton led them to a 15-1 record and a Super Bowl appearance 10 years ago.
The Buccaneers hold a two-team tiebreaker over the Panthers. But Carolina holds the three-team tiebreaker over Tampa Bay if Atlanta also finishes 8-9.
Before the Buccaneers faced New Orleans in October, Mayfield accused the Saints of dirty play and said: “I do not like them.”
Now, Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes hinge on the Saints beating the Falcons on the road on Sunday.
The Buccaneers were 0-8 in games where Mayfield threw an interception before overcoming his ninth pick in the last eight games.
After McLaughlin’s 38-yard field-goal try was blocked with just over five minutes remaining, Carolina got within 16-14 on Bryce Young’s 8-yard TD pass to Jalen Coker with 2:27 left.
Mayfield tossed a short pass to Otton for a 20-yard gain on third-and-4 to extend Tampa Bay’s drive and run off more time. The Panthers got the ball back at their 3 with 18 seconds and no timeouts left. The game ended on a desperate series of laterals that resulted in a fumble.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) is tackled by Carolina Panthers safety Nick Scott (21) and safety Tre’von Moehrig (7) during the first half of an NFL football game Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Jason Behnken)
Mayfield connected with Otton on an 18-yard TD pass for a 7-0 lead as the Bucs scored a touchdown on their opening drive for the third straight game. It was Otton’s first TD of the season.
Down 10-0, the Panthers turned Christian Rozeboom’s interception into a quick score. Rozeboom returned the pick 20 yards to Tampa Bay’s 19. Young then connected with Tommy Tremble on an 8-yard TD pass to cut it to 10-7.
Jacob Parrish picked off Young late in the second half and the Buccaneers got a 36-yard field goal from McLaughlin to take a 13-7 halftime lead.
McLaughlin kicked a 48-yard field goal early in the fourth to extend Tampa Bay’s lead.
Carolina’s Ryan Fitzgerald missed a 54-yarder short on the opening drive of the third quarter.
Mayfield completed his first six passes before misfiring on a cross-field, 13-yard toss to Payne Durham, who was wide open in the end zone. The Bucs settled for McLaughlin’s 29-yard field goal and a 10-0 lead.
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