Nickeil Alexander-Walker is averaging north of 20 points per game for Atlanta, a career high by a significant margin and far more offensive production than he delivered in two full seasons with the Timberwolves.
Which will, of course, raise questions as to why such an offensive explosion didn’t occur in Minnesota —though the answers seem obvious.
Alexander-Walker was the seventh man in Minnesota, while he has started the bulk of Atlanta’s contests this season due to injuries to Hawks guard Trae Young.
The 27-year-old is averaging 32.8 minutes per game this season, seven more than he did a year ago with the Wolves.
Yet the biggest reason for the uptick in scoring is freedom of role. Alexander-Walker is second on the Hawks in both points (20.6) and field-goal attempts (15.7) per game. That volume of shooting was never going to be achieved on a roster already featuring the likes of Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle (or Karl-Anthony Towns before him), Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid, among others.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #9 of the Minnesota Timberwolves celebrates his 3-point basket against the Golden State Warriors in the second quarter of Game Two of the Western Conference Second Round NBA Playoffs at Target Center on May 8, 2025 in Minneapolis. (David Berding/Getty Images)
Your circumstances often determine your production. Basketball remains a role-driven sport. Your job is to do what is asked of you to help your specific team succeed. Minnesota didn’t need high-volume scoring. Atlanta does.
Kudos to Alexander-Walker – who landed a well-earned, four-year, $60 million free-agent deal with Atlanta via sign and trade this offseason that the cap-strapped Wolves had no chance to compete with – for stepping into either role when asked to do so. But just because he’s scoring more doesn’t mean this is the maximized version of the two-way standout.
Alexander-Walker’s perimeter defense and energy has been sorely missed for much of the first half of this season in Minnesota. Every time he was inserted into the game, Alexander-Walker set a standard of a high compete level.
His defensive tenacity is what initially earned Alexander-Walker a spot in Minnesota’s rotation, with his role only growing over time as he continued to execute his responsibilities. The Timberwolves frequently appear to be one on-ball defender short. And their effort on that end of the floor has been inconsistent at times. Minnesota has had difficulty replacing his production off the pine.
Plug Alexander-Walker into the same spot in the rotation he occupied a year ago in Minnesota, and the Wolves would instantly improve as a team.
Atlanta isn’t getting that same defensive prowess from Alexander-Walker. The Hawks are 19th in defensive rating this season, compared to 18th a year ago. Individually, opponents are shooting 53.8% this season while being guarded by Alexander-Walker, who held opponents under 50% in each of the previous two seasons.
The basketball analytics website Dunks and Threes measures a player’s impact on offense and defense with “estimated plus-minus.” While Alexander-Walker’s offensive impact puts him in the 86th percentile, his defensive impact has dropped to the 71st percentile, a steep fall off from the 88th and 95th percentile spaces he occupied the previous two seasons in Minnesota.
Other advanced metrics all tell the same story. Alexander-Walker’s value over a replacement player, wins above replacement per 48 minutes. and box plus-minus are all significantly lower than they were during his time in Minnesota.
And Alexander Walker’s offensive production isn’t necessarily leading to wins. He has scored 20-plus points eight times this month. The Hawks are 0-8 in those contests.
Inevitably, that additional offensive responsibility leads to slippage in the guard’s defensive performance. And if you’re leaning heavily on Alexander-Walker to lead the charge offensively on a night-to-night basis, you’re probably not winning many games.
While his offensive skillset is growing with each passing year, Alexander-Walker’s elite NBA traits will always rest on the defensive end of the floor.
Atlanta enters Wednesday’s New Year’s Eve matinee against the Wolves with a 15-19 record.
Minnesota at its best with Alexander-Walker. It’s quite possible the inverse was true, as well.
Related Articles
Naz Reid scores 33 points, Timberwolves rout Bulls 136-101
Frederick: This is Timberwolves basketball? Minnesota better hope not
Timberwolves embarrassed by Brooklyn
Timberwolves fans rally around the Naz Reid tattoo artist battling brain tumor
Former Timberwolves star Karl-Anthony Towns and influencer are engaged
Wolves beat Bulls
Naz Reid scored a season-high 33 points off the bench, Anthony Edwards added 23, and the Minnesota Timberwolves routed the Bulls 136-101 on Monday night in Chicago after the Bulls lost top scorers Coby White and Josh Giddey mid-game to injuries.
Julius Randle had 17 points as Minnesota pulled away in the third quarter in the opener of a four-game trip. Donte DiVincenzo and Bones Hyland scored 12 each as Minnesota shot 53.7% after a cold start.
Nikola Vucevic led Chicago with 23 points, but the depleted Bulls couldn’t keep pace and lost a second straight following a five-game winning streak that had lifted them back to .500. Chicago shot just 40.9%, and committed 16 turnovers compared to three by Minnesota.
The Associated Press contributed to this report
Leave a Reply