MINNESOTA vs. NEW MEXICO
What: Rate Bowl
When: 3:30 p.m. CDT Friday
Where: Chase Stadium, Phoenix
TV: ESPN
Radio: KFAN-FM 100.3
Betting spread: Minnesota minus-2.5
Records: Minnesota (7-5) is bowl eligible for the sixth time in eight non-pandemic seasons under P.J. Fleck. New Mexico (9-3) is bowling for the first time since 2016.
History: This is the first matchup between the two programs and was an unlikely pairing that first needed two Big XII Conference teams (Iowa State and Kansas State) to opt out of bowl bids.
Resumes: The Gophers went 7-0 at home for the first time since 1967, but they stumbled to 0-5 on the road. They went 5-4 in Big Ten play, with late comebacks against Rutgers, Purdue and Michigan State, won handily against Nebraska and captured Paul Bunyan’s Axe against Wisconsin. But outside of Minnesota, they were blown out at Ohio State, Iowa and Oregon, and they couldn’t stop 6-6 Northwestern at Wrigley Field.
Under first-year head coach Jason Eck, the Lobos lost their season opener 37-17 to No. 14 Michigan at the Big House, but knocked off UCLA 35-10 at the Rose Bowl two weeks later. At 6-2, they finished in a four-way tie for the Mountain West lead, snapping long losing streaks to Colorado State and Air Force. But losses to Boise State, San Jose State and tiebreakers kept them from the conference championship game.
Big question: Can the Gophers keep their bowl win streak alive? Minnesota has won eight in a row, six straight under Fleck. The U doesn’t mail it in during bowls, but it will be playing a motivated Lobos team keen on knocking off another Big Ten team this season. The all-time bowl winning streak is Florida State’s run of 11 in a row from 1985-95.
Who has the edge?
Gophers offense vs. New Mexico defense: The Lobos were believed to be starting at “rock bottom again” after the exit of Bronco Mendenhall to Utah State, per an anonymous Mountain West assistant in Athlon, but Eck rocketed past those expectations. A respectable defense is a big reason why; they are allowing only 22.5 points per game, 48th in the nation … Minnesota’s offense is averaging 23 points a game, coming in at 98th in the country, but had more success with QB Drake Lindsey throwing it at the end of the season. The redshirt freshman completed 75% of passes in the snow and cold against the Badgers and had a four-TD game versus Northwestern. … Lindsey likely won’t have his No. 1 target, senior Le’Meke Brockington, who is expected to opt out. … The Gophers did not have a turnover in their final four regular-season games. … LB Jaxton Eck, the head coach’s son, led the team with 126 total tackles. … Keyshawn James-Newby, a 6-foot-2, 245-pound edge rusher, has been a menace with a team-high eight sacks and 63 total pressures, ranks third in the nation according to Pro Football Focus. EDGE: Gophers
Gophers defense vs. New Mexico offense: Lobos QB Jack Layne, a transfer from Idaho, completed 66% of his passes for 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 12 games. Eight of those picks came in the Lobos’ three losses. … Minnesota is 76th in the nation with eight interceptions; John Nestor’s two picks proved pivotal in the rivalry win over the Badgers. … DE Anthony Smith, who was second in the Big Ten with 10½ sacks, is playing in the bowl but hasn’t announced whether he will return in 2026. …. Senior DT Deven Eastern, who is headed to the Senior Bowl in January, also is expected to play. … New Mexico had three running backs with more than 349 rushing yards and at least five touchdowns. Backup QB James Laubstein also added 306 yards on the ground. … Minnesota was 31st in the nation versus the run (121 yards per game) but its woes — an average of 500 total yards allowed against Michigan State, Oregon and Northwestern — are still somewhat fresh. The U did limit Wisconsin to 268 total yards in the winter weather on Nov. 29. EDGE: Gophers
Special teams: Minnesota K Brady Denaburg made 67% of his total field goal attempts this season but he made than less 30% from beyond 40 yards. … New Mexico’s K Luke Drzewiecki made 94% of field goals this year. … KR Damon Bankston took one to the house against Boise State. Minnesota’s KR Koi Perich had a 93-yard return against Northwestern. EDGE: New Mexico
Prediction: The Gophers always come ready to play in the postseason, and Friday will be no different. Minnesota is a disciplined team, which will uncork a few trick plays with added prep time. New Mexico beat a Big Ten team, but 3-9 UCLA was at its nadir then. Gophers, 28-24
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