This started as one of those Five Takeaway stories, the most notable we learned from the news conference that officially started Derek Shelton’s tenure as manager of the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday.
After going back through all the quotes, it quickly became clear that while there were a few newsy items dropped here and there, there was only one real solid truth to take away from an hour of questions and answers, and it’s nothing we didn’t already know.
After dipping into the deep end of the free agent pool by signing players like Carlos Correa and Josh Donaldson, and getting only two brief playoff appearances out of it, the Twins are starting over. If it’s not a rebuild, as Shelton insisted this week, it’s only because the team you saw play out the string in August and September will be the same one you see next summer.
If the Twins get good anytime soon, it will be because those players got much better and the prospect pool — draft picks and the spoils of the trade deadline salary purge — is deep enough to pan out.
“I’m going to build off what happened in September. I really like what happened in September,” Shelton said. “You guys know, you cover the team — ultra aggressive on the bases, started to push the envelope a little bit. I think we have to continue on that.”
Got it.
Through Aug. 20 last season, the Twins had stolen 72 bases, an average of 0.56 a game. After that, they stole another 32, bringing that average up to 0.86.
They went 12-24 over those final 36 games.
It’s worth noting, of course, that the team had drastically changed overnight. The bullpen was decimated, and a lot of players were getting their first extended major league experience. It’s also worth noting that the position players left on that team will be the guys taking up the lion’s share of next season’s active roster.
Shelton and Falvey also were asked if they had been given the particulars on what the 2026 payroll will look like, and Shelton acknowledged that he spoke with Twins Executive Chair Joe Pohlad about it as part of his interview process.
“I won’t get into the depth of that,” Shelton said, “but I did appreciate how transparent Joe was with me.”
Said Falvey: “I don’t have any specifics around that (regarding) payroll, a payroll number.”
Got it.
The Twins started last season with a payroll of just under $130 million, according to Spotrac.com. Baseball-reference.com has that down to $50.9 million in guaranteed contracts next season.
None of the arbitration-eligible players have agreed to a salary yet, but there are only five, and none of them made more than Ryan Jeffers’ $4.5 million salary in 2025. And while the Twins will sign a few veterans this offseason — they need relievers and a catcher — they will likely be journeymen, maybe even waiver claims. It’s difficult to see this team spending close to $100 million on major league payroll in 2026.
Only five MLB teams operated with payrolls that small last season: the Pirates, A’s, Rays, Marlins and White Sox. All of them finished under .500 and out of the playoffs, and Miami finished closest to a playoff spot, four games out in the National League wild card standings.
It makes one wonder what Pablo López and Joe Ryan are doing on a team like this one, especially with MLB owners ready to pitch a salary cap when the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after next season. López, Ryan and centerfielder Byron Buxton, are royalty in exile on this roster.
The Twins have a lot of promising young arms — they’ve acquired Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel and Taj Bradley via trade and developed Zebby Mathews and David Festa from the system — and Lopez and Ryan would fetch some nice prospects for the pipeline while substantially trimming more payroll. Ryan is in line for a real contract — he’s arb-eligible after making $3 million last year — and Lopez is due roughly $44 million over the next two seasons.
“I’m just trying to continue to build a plan around the options that are available to us via trade, free agency or otherwise, that can find ways to augment the group,” Falvey said.
Shelton promised “better things ahead” for the club, but it won’t be next season.
And if there’s a 2027 season, it won’t be then, either. We all know it, but no one from the front office or ownership would put that into a declarative sentence this week. It’s been a year since fans have heard anything close to clarity on the issue.
“I have a business to run,” Pohlad said after the 2024 season, “and it comes with tough decisions.”
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