Minnesota opens its regular season Thursday in Portland, meaning the time for speculation will soon give way to actual, on-court results.
But before that transition takes place, here are a few final stabs at what’s to come for the Timberwolves in the 2025-26 season.
For transparency’s sake, here are the results from last year’s bold predictions column:
No. 1: Timberwolves win 59 games and are the No. 1 seed in the West
Result: Dead before December
No. 2: Minnesota touts a top-5 offense … from January on
Result: No. 5 offense on the nose from Jan. 1 on
No. 3: Donte DiVincenzo is an all-star
Result: Didn’t quite get the votes
No. 4: Rob Dillingham isn’t in the rotation
Result: Dillingham didn’t play outside of injuries and garbage time
No. 5: Timberwolves fall to OKC in West finals
Result: Nostradamus
Now, onto this season’s five bold predictions:
El alero de los Timberwolves de Minnesota Julius Randle reacciona durante la segunda mitad del juego 3 de las finales de la Conferencia Oeste ante el Thunder de Oklahoma City el sábado 24 de mayo del 2025. (AP Foto/Matt Krohn)
Minnesota sports the NBA’s best record a month into the season
There was no massive offseason roster shakeup this season for Minnesota, which returns seven of its top eight players and is backfilling the rest of the rotation with guys who were on the roster.
There should be no major offensive issues to iron out. The Wolves played some of their best basketball of the season at the tail end of the 2024-25 campaign. If continuity is king, there’s no reason Minnesota shouldn’t hit the ground running faster than anyone else in the Association this fall.
But the real reason for this prediction … the schedule. It couldn’t be much more favorable.
Minnesota’s first five games look reasonably competitive on paper, but Portland won’t have Scoot Henderson, Indiana won’t have TJ McConnell and the Lakers — who Minnesota plays twice in its first five contests — will be without LeBron James.
In their first 17 games, Minnesota is scheduled to plays the Kings thrice, along with Phoenix, Charlotte, Utah and Brooklyn. None of those teams are expected to win north of 35 games this season, so 14-3 or even 15-2 don’t seem out of the question. Remember, the 2023-24 Timberwolves were 17-4 through 21 games. The stage is set for something similar this fall.
Julius Randle is an all-star
Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle (30) celebrates after a dunk during the first half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball first-round playoff series against the Los Angeles Lakers, Sunday, April 27, 2025, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)If Minnesota does get off to a fast start, Julius Randle is likely to be a reason why. He played at an all-star level in the first two rounds of the playoffs in the spring.
Those performances have his reputation in a good spot nationally, which is half the battle when it comes to earning these accolades.
If Randle maintains the same productivity — scoring at or above 20 points per game while routinely flirting with triple doubles — while the team wins games at a high clip, he’ll be a strong candidate to nab one of the final all-star spots in the West, much like Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr. did a year ago as the Grizzlies stormed out of the gates.
Mike Conley is leaned on more, not less
Conley just turned 38 years old and is coming off one of his worst seasons as a pro, leading many to anticipate further decline and less reliance on the floor general this season. But it’s important to note much of Conley’s poor play came over the first half of the season as he battled through injuries.
The point guard is healthy and benefited from a full offseason of work. Most important, he’s been mentioned by Timberwolves coach Chris Finch as a solution for much of what has ailed Minnesota in the past.
Late game struggles? Mix in a few more Conley-Rudy Gobert pick and rolls.
Lack of transition? Get Conley the ball and allow him to throw it up the floor.
Perimeter defense? Conley can play more at the point of attack.
If Conley is indeed capable of being an antidote, Minnesota will have him on the floor more often this season. After averaging south of 25 minutes a game last season, look for the point guard’s playing time to spike back toward the 27-28 minute range.
Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) reacts during the second half of Game 4 of the Western Conference finals of the NBA basketball playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder Monday, May 26, 2025, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
Anthony Edwards’ 3-point production dips
Not drastically, but the superstar guard led the NBA in 3-point attempts (811) and makes (320) last season. His step-in triple was one of the game’s ultimate weapons.
That was fresh off an offseason in which Edwards dedicated himself to developing a lethal long-range jumper. He’s always been a player who likes to show off his new set of tricks, and this season, that’s the mid-range shot.
The purpose of that development is ideally for Edwards to create looks in late-game spots and against high-level defenses specifically scheming to take away the long ball — at least in the mind of Finch. Look for Edwards to get to it more frequently than that after a summer dedicated to improving that part of his game.
It’s unlikely his offense will be more efficient for it during the regular season, but perhaps it will pay dividends when Minnesota needs it most come playoff time.
The defense drops again
After touting the League’s best defense (by a long shot) two years ago, Minnesota slipped to sixth in defensive efficiency last season. And while there’s been a verbal emphasis placed on a renewed commitment to that end of the floor, personnel matters.
Gone is Nickeil Alexander-Walker, one of Minnesota’s premier perimeter defenders last season, who went to Atlanta via a sign-and-trade deal this offseason.
Currently slated to take his minutes are Terrence Shannon Jr. — a capable defender, but someone not yet on Alexander-Walker’s level on that end — and Rob Dillingham. That’s a dropoff.
Gobert has aged magnificently to date, but he’s 33 now, and it’s fair to wonder whether he can still be the league’s most dominant interior defender.
Lastly, defense has never been the primary focus of most of Minnesota’s rotational pieces to start the season. Expecting it to be now seems like a pipe dream.
The Wolves won’t be bad defensively by any means — Top 10 still feels like a safe bet — but the once-firm identity continues to creep in the other direction.
Minnesota wins 53 games, falls in Round 2 to Denver
Even in a talented West, the combination of Minnesota’s top-eight talent, Edwards and experience make the Wolves a clear-cut top four team in the conference. A strong start figures to pave a smooth path for the regular season.
But a significant jump is required for the Wolves to be true title contenders, something they were not a year ago. That will have to come in the form of improved team offense, more consistent defensive effort and individual development.
The guess here is they make strides in two of those three categories, but it’s not quite enough to keep pace with Oklahoma City and the Nuggets’ revamped roster.
Related Articles
Tom Crean joins Timberwolves’ pre- and postgame shows as analyst
Where do the Timberwolves rank in national top 100 player lists?
Frederick: Don’t read too much into Timberwolves’ preseason results
Timberwolves, Joan Beringer embracing the rookie’s development process
Conley’s Corner: Turning the page on heartbreak
Leave a Reply