PURDUE vs. MINNESOTA
When: 6:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
TV: Big Ten Network
Radio: KFAN, 100.3 FM
Weather: 64 degrees, mostly clear skies, 9 mph east wind
Betting spread: Gophers, minus-7.5
Records: Gophers (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten) are coming off a 42-3 beatdown from No. 1 Ohio State in Columbus on Saturday. Purdue (2-3, 0-2) lost to now-No. 17 Illinois 43-27 in West Lafayette, Ind., last weekend.
History: Minnesota has lost two straight to the Boilermakers, including a 49-30 road defeat in 2023. That loss really stung more because Purdue was 2-7 at the time and amassed 604 total yards. The U leads the overall series 41-35-3.
Context: After a 1-11 season in 2024, Purdue fired head coach Ryan Waters, hired Barry Odom and he has already doubled that win total. He went 19-8 in the previous two years at UNLV after a 25-25 run at Missouri.
Big question: Can the Gophers bounce back? They were completely owned by the Buckeyes last weekend, so are they able to turn the page or will they still be licking their wounds? A homecoming crowd should help put the humbling in the past.
Key matchup: Gophers tacklers vs. Purdue running back Devin Mockobee. Minnesota has missed an average of 15 tackles per game against Power Four competition this season, while the 5-foot-10, 195-pounder has 255 of his 305 rushing yards this season coming after contact, per Pro Football Focus. Mockobee has averaged 9.4 yards per carry in his two previous games (2022, ’23) against Minnesota.
Stats: The Gophers have, for the most part, enjoyed scheduling Purdue for homecoming. The Boilermakers are the third most-frequent opponent (11 games), behind Northwestern (19) and Iowa (14). In this set-up, Minnesota is 7-4 against Purdue, but suffered a 20-10 loss in 2022.
Who has the edge?
Gophers offense vs. Purdue defense: The Boilermakers have given up at least 460 yards of total offense to its three opponents from the Power Four conferences, all of which have all been ranked this season — USC, Notre Dame and the Illini. Purdue’s pass defense has been especially bad, ranking 134th out of 136 programs in yards per attempt (10.4). … With the Gophers struggling to run the ball this year, QB Drake Lindsey should be airing it out like he did in the second half against Rutgers. … RB Darius Taylor returned from a two-game absence to have eight carries against the Buckeyes. After coming off a hamstring injury, his role is expected to increase and could really come in handy in the short passing game. … Purdue is 100th in the nation with 12 plays allowed over 30 yards, but Minnesota has only produced five in the same category (124th). The opportunities will be there, but can Gophers’ pass catchers take advantage of the mostly zone coverages? … The U reshuffled it offensive line to start the Ohio State loss and switched at guard midway through the game. They need to figure it out because they are 104th in yards per rushing attempt (3.79). EDGE: Gophers
Gophers defense vs. Purdue offense: The Boilers are among the worst in the nation in turnover margin (minus-7, tied for 131st) and giveaways have really cost them. They have only three points off turnovers, while allowing 34. The Gophers are plus-2, but have only one takeaway against P4 competition. S Kerry Brown’s pick against Rutgers led to a U touchdown that put that comeback in full gear. Minnesota needs to catch the would-be interceptions that have been thrown to their defensive backs. … The Gophers defense ranks 84th in stop rate (58.5%), meaning just over half of opponent drives end in punts, turnovers or turnover on downs, per ESPN. This metric doesn’t include FCS programs, so no cupcake win over Northwestern (La.) State to bloat the numbers. For reference, a top 30 team gets off the field without points allowed on 67% of total series. … Purdue is second in the Big Ten with 181 passing attempts, but Ryan Browne has completed 62.2%, which is 15th in the conference. … WR Michael Jackson II is the clear-cut No. 1 receiving option with 32 receptions, more than double Mockobee’s 14. … Most of the Gophers’ D-line has struggled to create consistent pressure. DE Anthony Smith has 16 pressures, but nobody else has more than six. EDGE: Purdue
Special teams: Gophers K Brady Denaburg has missed one field goal in each of the last three games and is 66.7% on the season. Purdue K Spencer Porath is a perfect 7 for 7 on the year. … KR Koi Perich should have an opportunity for a big return; Purdue is allowing 31 yards per return (128th in nation). EDGE: Gophers
Prediction: On paper, this Big Ten matchup looks like a potential shootout, but the over/under point total seems low at 52.5. Here’s a friendly wager it goes over, with Minnesota driving it. Gophers, 31-24.
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