The Minnesota Lynx open their semifinal series with the Phoenix Mercury at 4 p.m. Sunday at Target Center. The battle for a trip to the WNBA Finals is full of All-Star talent and elite matchups as Minnesota tries to book a return trip to the WNBA Finals.
The Lynx won the regular season series, 3-1. Here’s a look at the matchups that will define this best-of-five semifinal (stats courtesy of Her Hoop Stats and Across The Timeline)
Alanna Smith’s defense vs. Alyssa Thomas’s offense
The advanced stats back up Smith’s case as Defensive Player of the Year as she led the WNBA in defensive win shares per 40 minutes (0.08), ranked second in blocked shot percentage (2.2%) and finished second in defensive rating (93.7).
While she isn’t the biggest frontcourt player at 6-foot-4, Alanna Smith does not back down from larger opponents when it comes to physical play. And her quickness gives her an advantage when it comes to creating deflections and defending the perimeter in the pick-and-roll game.
Thomas is one of the most dominant players of this generation. The WNBA has had 59 triple-doubles in its history and Thomas has 24 of them, with her latest coming in the deciding Game 3 victory in the first round against New York on Friday.
“Nobody plays the game harder, smarter,” Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve said of Thomas earlier this season.
The Mercury’s powerful MVP finalist is a brilliant passer, averaging 9.2 assists per game this season. But she can also get to the basket with the best in the league. She makes 66% of her shots inside five feet, and she took 197 such attempts, 12th most in the WNBA.
The bottom line: There is no stopping Thomas. But if she has one Achilles heel, it can be reckless passes. She averaged the third most turnovers per game (3.5). If Smith can survive Thomas’ powerful drives and force her into precarious passes, the Lynx have a chance to gain extra possessions by taking advantage of miscues.
Napheesa Collier’s efficiency vs. Satou Sabally’s 3-point shooting
Out of 13 players who took at least 13 shots per game in 2025, no one ranked higher in field-goal percentage than the Collier (53.1%).
The MVP finalist was dangerous from all areas of the floor, making 40.3% of her threes, while hitting 52.9% from midrange and 90.6% of her free-throws. The Lynx’s offense spreads the floor to create winnable matchups for her down low, where she can execute her signature fadeaway against any defender.
How much does Collier mean to the Lynx offensively? The forward scored 20 or more points 21 times this year and the Lynx won 18 of those games. In three games against Phoenix, she averaged 15.3 points.
The Mercury as a team took the third most three-point attempts in the WNBA (27.7). Satou Sabally averages 5.4 attempts from beyond the arc. However, she wasn’t the most efficient. Of the 48 players who took at least three three-point attempts per game and played in 30-plus games, Sabally was 41st in 3-point percentage (32.1%).
The star forward does have the ability hit from deep. Last year she made 45.2% of her 3-point attempts, which was second in the WNBA among high-volume three-point shooters.
The bottom line: The Lynx need to get Collier her shots, no matter where they happen on the floor and they must limit open opportunities for Sabally, otherwise she will make them pay.
Kayla McBride’s three-point shooting vs. Kahleah Copper’s speed
McBride is one of the best three-point shooters in the league, ranking seventh all-time in three-point makes (722) in WNBA history. This year she had the second most made triples (103), knocking down an outstanding 39.5% of her attempts.
Her importance to the Lynx’s offense can be demonstrated this way: In games they won this year, she made 41.7% of her three-point attempts. In games they lost, that number dipped to 33.3%. McBride is a momentum-shifting player, who can swing games when she catches fire.
Copper is a four-time All-Star and the 2021 WNBA Finals MVP. She is capable of shredding opponents with her lightning quick drives to the basket. That will test the Lynx’s outstanding on-ball defense.
However, this year Copper was not on the same level as previous seasons. Her shooting percentage (42.6%) was her lowest since 2019 and her points per game dropped from 21.7 to 15.6. She did not clear 15 points in any of the three first-round games against the Liberty.
The bottom line: The Lynx must lean on McBride’s shooting, especially if Phoenix is focused on stopping Collier. They also have to ensure Copper doesn’t have a breakout series. In the 2021 Finals, she shot 50% and scored 17 points per game. If that happens, it’s going to be a rough ride.
The Lynx’s depth vs. the Mercury’s depth
One of the reasons the Lynx had the best record in the WNBA this year was their depth.
Guard Natisha Hiedeman averaged 9.1 points per game on 49.3% shooting, while forward Jessica Shepard had the best shooting percentage in the league (63.8%) and averaged eight points. The Lynx picked up 2024 All-Defensive player DiJonai Carrington at the trade deadline. In Minnesota’s Game 2 win over Golden State to advance to the semifinals, the three key bench players played 21, 19 and 14 minutes, respectively.
Phoenix’s depth was greatly improved when they signed six-time All-Star DeWanna Bonner mid-season. She splits minutes with defensive specialist Natasha Mack. The Mercury also bring two-time champion Sami Whitcomb off the bench as a 3-point specialist.
The bottom line: Overall, Minnesota has the most impressive bench in the league. They are capable of winning the bench minutes and wearing down Phoenix as the series goes on.
Cheryl Reeve vs. Nate Tibbetts
There is an enormous gap in coaching experience, as Reeve has four championships and Tibbetts is only in his second year coaching women’s basketball. The South Dakota native was previously an NBA assistant from 2011-23.
Despite the difference in WNBA resumes, Tibbetts’ team has a lot of the signals of a modern, well-coached team. The Mercury ranked second in percentage of points from distance and fourth in assisted shot ratio, demonstrating their ball movement and focus on outside shooting.
However, Reeve’s team is No. 1 in points per possession, No. 1 in points per possession allowed, No. 1 in three-point shooting and No. 1 in assist-to-turnover ratio.
She has also had two years with most of her current players and they are very comfortable in her system.
The bottom line: No coach in the WNBA is better at adapting in-game or within a series than Reeve and she has the players to adjust when needed. The Lynx should have an edge on the sidelines.
Series schedule
Game 1: Sunday, 4 p.m. at Target Center on ESPN
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:30 p.m. at Target Center on ESPN
Game 3: Friday, 8:30 p.m. in Phoenix on ESPN2
Game 4*: Sunday, Sept. 28 in Phoenix
Game 5*: Tuesday, Sept. 30 at Targe Center
*= if necessary
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