P.J. Fleck threw Minnesota’s hat into the College Football Playoff ring back on Big Ten Media Days in July.
“If we are delusional enough to know we can do that, we can get there,” Fleck said.
Hey, why not shoot for the stars? What would be the point in not having lofty goals in July, a month ahead of the season’s actual kickoff.
But is that one realistic?
The schedule suggests so …
Minnesota figures to be favored in every home game this season. The toughest opponents coming to Dinkytown are Nebraska and Wisconsin.
The Gophers do appear to have two surefire road losses — at Ohio State and at Oregon. They play the games for a reason, but even then-No. 1 Texas couldn’t win in Columbus in Week 1. And defending national champion Ohio State lost in Eugene last fall. Winning at either site would be a minor miracle.
But 10-2 likely puts a Big Ten team on the right side of the bubble to get into the 12-team playoff field. Which means Minnesota, indeed, has a path, though the margin for error is miniscule.
The biggest obstacles standing between the Gophers and a two-loss regular season look like a pair of tricky road trips, at Iowa in late October and Saturday’s late game at Cal, where the Gophers are a slight favorite to edge a Bears team featuring an intriguing freshman quarterback in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.
This all sounds silly; why does anyone feel the need to opine about the postseason in Week 3? But the reality is if you go to bed before midnight Saturday, by the time you wake up Sunday morning, the Gophers’ playoff hopes will either be very much alive, or all but dead. A 9-3 season with losses to Cal, Ohio State and Oregon would not do the trick.
So, if you buy into Fleck’s notion that the Gophers could potentially punch a playoff ticket — probably the new bar for what makes for a truly special season at Minnesota — then Saturday is a must win. Frankly, outside of the Oregon and Ohio State dates, they all are.
Easy? Far from it.
Possible? Absolutely.
“As Indiana showed last year,” Fleck said in July, “anybody can get there.”
That’s no knock on the Hoosiers, who provided a number of programs with a positive dose of reality.
It’s part of the fun of the expanded playoff system. You don’t have to be some unstoppable juggernaut to participate. You do have to be good. You have to be consistent. And you have to have a little luck.
For a program like Minnesota, that luck comes in two forms: the rare confluence of a doable Big Ten schedule lining up with strong enough roster to take advantage, and that the inevitable one or two game-altering bounces or calls go your way. That can turn an 8-4 campaign into a magical 10-2 season.
On its surface, the schedule looks doable. While Minnesota hasn’t played anyone of note to date, the Gophers look good.
Is this the season the stars align for Fleck and Co.? That question will begin to be answered Saturday in Berkeley.
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