Minnesota can now reclaim its preferred role of underdog.
After a series against Golden State which it entered as a favorite and grew to a near guaranteed victor after an injury, the Timberwolves are heavy betting underdogs in the Western Conference Finals against top-seeded Oklahoma City.
The Thunder toppled Denver in Game 7 of their conference semifinal on Sunday, and will host Minnesota for Game 1 of the West Finals at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday.
Here’s a look at the series:
Schedule
Game 1: Tuesday, May 20 in Oklahoma City, 7:30 pm, ESPN
Game 2: Thursday, May 22 in Oklahoma City, 7:30 pm, ESPN
Game 3: Saturday, May 24 in Minnesota, 7:30 pm, ABC
Game 4: Monday, May 26 in Minnesota, 7:30 pm, ESPN
Game 5: Wednesday, May 28 in Oklahoma City, 7:30 pm, ESPN
Game 6: Friday, May 30 in Minnesota, 7:30 pm, ESPN
Game 7: Sunday, June 1 in Oklahoma City, 7 pm, ESPN
Regular season series
The two teams tied a pair of matchups, 2-2. Rudy Gobert played in just one of the games for Minnesota – a loss on New Year’s Eve. Minnesota was down Gobert, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for the final three matchups, which were all played around the all-star break.
Timberwolves keys to victory
Ball control: The one time Minnesota was fairly thoroughly beaten by Oklahoma City this season – on New Year’s Eve in Oklahoma City – Minnesota turned the ball over 24 times, which led to 31 Thunder points.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has repeatedly harped the importance of not turning the ball over against the Thunder, something Minnesota managed well in the other three matchups during the season. Minnesota won two of those contests.
Oklahoma City led the NBA with the lowest turnover percentage (11.9%) and the highest opponent turnover percentage (16.9%).
During the regular season, the Thunder scored 18.1% of their points off turnovers, an NBA high. That number has spiked to north of 20% in the postseason.
Eight Denver turnovers in the second quarter Sunday sparked the start of the Thunder run that clinched that series.
Minnesota’s defense could cause havoc for Oklahoma City in the half court, but the Wolves will have to limit their giveaways to keep the Thunder from capitalizing in easy transition.
Win the 3-point battle: Minnesota was fifth this season in 3-point makes (15.0). The Thunder were sixth. With the gravity each team’s star player – Anthony Edwards for Minnesota and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Oklahoma City – possesses, the role players for both teams figure to have numerous decent looks from the perimeter.
Those are likely the best scoring chances either side will generate in the halfcourt. Both teams have lineups flush with guys who can knock down the triple, but both teams have shown in the postseason that those “others” can run hot and cold from distance.
Whether it’s a night where Lu Dort makes four 3-pointers or Donte DiVincenzo could determine a contest.
Gobert games: Rudy Gobert’s impact has fluctuated for Minnesota throughout the postseason. Minnesota’s defense and rebounding is unquestionably better when the center is on the floor.
But there have been times where the opponent’s ability to disregard Gobert without Minnesota making the defense pay with easy looks for the center inside has stalled out Minnesota’s offense.
One way to beat Oklahoma City is on the glass. The easiest way for the Wolves to do that is with Gobert on the floor. But only if Minnesota can maintain some semblance of offense in the process.
Limit Shai: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the likely MVP this season. But teams this postseason have found the best way to beat the Thunder is to force the ball out of Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands.
That’s what Minnesota did in its wild, 25-point fourth quarter rally to beat the Thunder in February.
Minnesota trapped the star guard out of a zone, and Gilgeous-Alexander’s teammates failed to make outside shots. If you can limit Gilgeous-Alexander’s offensive output, Oklahoma City struggles to put up enough points to put you away.
Prediction
Minnesota in 7. The Timberwolves have been to this point, while this edition of the Thunder are making their first appearance on this stage.
It’s easier to trust Minnesota’s experience and ability to perform at a consistent level around its superstar at this juncture.
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