The national analysts across the country are singing a familiar tune heading into this first-round series: Lakers in six or seven games.
That’s not surprising. Los Angeles has two sure-fire Hall of Famers in LeBron James and Luka Doncic, and the Lakers are the No. 3 seed with home-court advantage. Minnesota, meanwhile, won 17 of its final 21 regular-season games to nab the No. 6 seed, it’s fair to poke holes in the incredibly soft schedule that contributed to that run.
So the Lakers it is, at least in the minds of many. That’s fine by Minnesota.
“I just love it. It’s dope,” Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards said. “I love the fact that everybody wants the Lakers to win. That’s how it’s supposed to be. They don’t want the Timberwolves to win. I get it.”
That’s fine by Minnesota.
The reality is Minnesota can win. The Wolves feature one of the most talented, physical rosters in the NBA capable of beating anyone on any given night. Still, much will be required to oust the Lakers in a best-of-seven series.
Here are Minnesota’s keys to victory.
Balanced offense
The common playoff narrative is that star players must produce for their teams to advance. That’s true for the Wolves in the sense that leading scorers Edwards and Julius Randle need to make a positive impact if Minnesota is to down Los Angeles. But that impact may not always come in the form of points.
Wolves players this week acknowledged the Lakers will do everything in their power to get the ball out of Edwards’ hands. Edwards has noted his teammates have to be ready, and confident, when he finds sets them up to make shots.
Naz Reid, Donte DiVincenzo, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley must take turns knocking down outside shots and attacking closeouts to make Los Angeles pay for its heavy attention on Edwards. Randle also will be a natural candidate to receive some of those passes, but he can’t get caught in an isolation game against any of the Lakers’ sturdy wings.
Ball and player movement will be especially critical against Los Angeles’ lengthy, organized defense.
“I think a lot of it is going to be trying to create distortion by drive and kick,” said veteran point guard Conley. “Moving the basketball, trying to get them moving a little bit. Because they do load up they do create a lot of help situations where they’re not just relying on the on-ball defender to get the stop. They’re relying on the gap help and the guy behind them, so for us it’s about being fast, being quick with our decisions, pushing the ball, getting out and really just trying to put a lot of pressure on the paint and make them have to move.”
Make Luka work
Speaking of making players move, that’s something Minnesota didn’t well enough in last year’s West Finals, specifically pertaining to Doncic on the defensive end. He was largely allowed to rest defensively while cooking the Wolves on the other end.
In fairness to Wolves coach Chris Finch and Co., Minnesota doesn’t have a bevy of perimeter isolation players on offense like, say, Boston. But there are ways to make Doncic work more defensively.
“I think it’s activity. We’ve got to play way more in transition than we have done against these guys, I think. Just play with a lot more activity on and off the ball,” Finch said. “There’s lots of things that you can do. I think it’s one of those marginal gains that you’ve got to do across the board, that you’ve got to do with every little thing that you do. And that’s how you can kind of make these guys work a little bit harder.”
Run Wolves, run
Much of the talk this week centered on Minnesota’s readiness to defend the Lakers’ home-run passes for easy transition layups. But the Wolves may need to be just as aggressive in getting out on the fast break.
Minnesota was 9 for 12 from the field in fast-break opportunities in its only matchup against the Luka Lakers on Feb. 27, with 23 points coming in transition. Aside from that, the Wolves shot 36% from the field.
Minnesota didn’t have Julius Randle or Rudy Gobert in that game, but the point stands that the Lakers’ length could give the Wolves offense fits in the half court. Any easy buckets the Wolves can nab could go a long way toward edging Los Angeles in the end.
A big Gobert
Gobert was Minnesota’s second-best — and perhaps most important — player over the final quarter of the regular season. The same will need to be true if Minnesota is to prevail in this first-round series.
As previously mentioned, the Lakers may have the defensive personnel and discipline to limit Minnesota’s offensive effectiveness. And they may simply have too many shot creators in Doncic, James and Austin Reaves for the Wolves to entirely shut down their offense.
So, Minnesota will likely have to win the possession game. That’s done, largely, by controlling the glass. Gobert has to be in the teens with his game-to-game rebounding totals, grabbing at least a few offensive rebounds a game while limiting the Lakers’ second-chance attempts on the other end.
Stay composed
There have been numerous times in recent years in which the Wolves seemed to unravel because of disputes with officiating. That could come to a head in this series. Edwards had to miss a game because of his volume of technical fouls this season, and the NBA had to step in to keep him from missing two.
The Lakers were third in the NBA in free-throw attempts per game this season. Doncic and Reeves are excellent at getting to the line.
Los Angeles also surrendered the seventh-fewest free-throws per game this season (20.4). Minnesota allowed the sixth fewest.
Should a few borderline calls go the Lakers’ way, will Minnesota manage to keep its composure?
“I think there’s a lot of things that you’ve got to do to stay focused right now,” Finch said. “We can’t control that. As a team we’ve done a better job down the stretch here of just getting on about the business of basketball, and that’s what it’s got to be.”
Edwards made the following declaration: “I won’t get no techs. I won’t say anything. I’m gonna be super quiet, 100 percent.”
Prediction
Lakers in 7 — Minnesota may very well win this series thanks to its depth, physicality and ability to hit open triples. But to do so, it’s going to have to prove itself in some tight spots against two of the players with earned reputations as athletes who are built for such environments.
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