Should the Timberwolves beat Utah — as they’re heavily favored to do — on Sunday, Minnesota secures a top-six seed in the West and its fourth straight playoff berth.
But where the Timberwolves would open said playoffs, with what seed and against which opponent, is entirely not up to them.
Here are the scenarios for the other games Sunday — Denver playing in Houston and the Los Angeles Clippers playing in Golden State — that will determine Minnesota’s first-round setup.
Denver wins, Clippers win: Wolves are the 6 seed vs. the 3 seed Los Angeles Lakers.
The skinny: Viewed widely as the “worst” setup for Minnesota, there is nothing overly enticing about a first-round matchup against two all-time greats in Lebron James and Luka Doncic.
The Lakers may struggle to find ways to defend Anthony Edwards without contributing numerous resources to the cause. And Los Angeles doesn’t possess the size necessary to keep Rudy Gobert off the glass. So Minnesota has a couple of matchup advantages.
But it’s difficult to envision best-of-seven series against two of the league’s most cerebral players breaking in Minnesota’s favor.
Denver wins, Golden State wins: Wolves are the 5 seed vs. the 4 seed Nuggets
The skinny: On paper, this looks like the best possible scenario for Minnesota, who would get to square off with a team it swept in four regular season meetings this season and knocked out of last year’s playoffs.
Denver simply doesn’t have the personnel to defend the Timberwolves, and Minnesota’s wings have proven they can slow down and frustrate Denver’s No. 2 and No. 3 scoring options in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
Certainly, it’s always a scary proposition to go against the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic, but Jokic has to exert himself to no end to give Denver a chance on the defensive end. And it’s asking a lot, even against a player in as good of physical condition of Jokic, to play such a key role in the team’s defensive scheme while also having to carry the offensive burden.
Denver loses, Clippers win: Wolves are the 5 seed vs. the 4 seed Clippers
The skinny: A Nuggets loss feels unlikely given the Rockets — who’ve secured the No. 2 seed in the West — rested numerous starters in each of their previous two games and figure to do so again Sunday. But should Houston pull the upset, this would be an intriguing first-round matchup for Minnesota.
The Wolves swept the Clippers in three regular season meetings and have had success against Los Angeles in the past. But it should be noted the Clippers weren’t entirely healthy for any of those regular season matchups, and they are one of the hottest teams in the NBA entering the postseason.
The Clippers play an isolation brand of offense that plays directly into the strengths of Minnesota’s defense, but the Clippers also have the personnel necessary to give Minnesota’s offense issues if the Wolves don’t generate enough offense with their defense.
This series could be a potential slog.
Denver loses, Golden State wins: Wolves are the 4 seed vs. the 5 seed Clippers
The skinny: This would be Minnesota’s one path to earning home-court advantage to open the playoffs for the second consecutive year.
(Should Minnesota lose to Utah, it will be in the play-in tournament as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed)
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