MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN
When: 11 a.m. Friday
Where: Camp Randall Stadium
TV: CBS
Radio: KFXN-FM, 100.3
Weather: 21 degrees, partly cloudy, 14 mph east wind
Betting spread: Wisconsin, minus 1.5
Records: Minnesota (6-5, 4-4 Big Ten) lost its second straight game, 26-25 to No. 4 Penn State on Saturday. Wisconsin (5-6, 3-5) has dropped four straight with a 44-25 road loss to Nebraska last weekend.
History: Minnesota is 62-63-8 all-time against Wisconsin after dropping last year’s game 28-14 in Minneapolis. Head coach P.J. Fleck is 3-4 versus the Badgers.
Big question: Can Minnesota win a trophy game this season? Minnesota is in danger of going 0 for 4 after defeats to Iowa, Michigan and Penn State; they badly need Paul Bunyan’s Axe. Minnesota has played in all four trophy games in nine previous seasons and came away with no hardware only once (1997).
Key matchup: Gophers defensive line vs. Badgers offensive line. Wisconsin is 11th in the nation with only 11 sacks allowed, while Minnesota is 69th with 21. DE Anthony Smith is on a tear with a sack in each of his last three games.
Who has the edge?
Gophers offense vs. Wisconsin defense: QB Max Brosmer’s passer rating comes in at 60th in the nation. While not great, it’s one of the best rankings for the U offense this season and underlies how important the sixth-year senior has been to that unit’s success. However, Brosmer snapped a five-game stretch without a giveaway last week. He had a fumble and an interception against the Nittany Lions. He will need to be smarter with the football in a rivalry game. … Minnesota is plus-10 in turnover margin, while Wisconsin is minus-6. That difference is Top 15 versus outside top 100 in the nation. … With the Penn State loss, Minnesota technically fell to 5-1 when rushing over 100 yards this season, but 2.9 yards per rush last Saturday shows they didn’t have all that much success last week. Wisconsin, however, is allowing 163 yards per game on the ground. … The Badgers are much better against the pass, allowing 176 yards per game. … Daniel Jackson is only 16 receiving yards away from passing Tutu Atwell (2,640) for fourth all time in program history. … Penn State’s vaunted D-line had only one sack against Minnesota and Wisconsin’s front isn’t nearly as feared. EDGE: Gophers
Gophers defense vs. Wisconsin offense: In September, the Badgers lost starting QB Tyler Van Dyke for the season and Braedyn Locke has started the last eight games. It hasn’t gone well. Badgers QBs passer rating is 111th in the nation. Locke has completed only 56% for 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. … Minnesota is tied for sixth in the nation with 16 picks this year, but didn’t have one in the Penn State loss. … The Badgers tailbacks have Fleck’s attention. Tawee Walker, an Oklahoma transfer, leads way with 828 yards and 10 touchdowns, but it’s Darrion Dupree that is most impressive. “This freshman is really really good,” Fleck said. The U counters with a run defense that allows only 119 yards per game (30th in the country). … WRs Will Pauling is the go-to possession receiver (9.1 yards per reception), while Vinny Anthony’s the big-play target (18.1). CBs Justin Walley and Ethan Robinson — 15 combined pass break-ups — will be up to the challenge. … RT Riley Mahlman of Lakeville South has started all 11 games for the Badgers. … DE Jah Joyner, 4 1/2 sacks, could use a big day after projections about a possible double-digit sack season. EDGE: Gophers
Special teams: K Dragan Keusch has made 11 straight field goals, returning to the form that won him Big Ten kicker of the year in 2023. … K Nathanial Vakos is only 12 of 18 on field goals this season, but has made three plus 50 yards. … Kesich and P Mark Crawford — 43-yard average — are playing in their final regular season game as Gophers. EDGE: Gophers
Prediction: Minnesota appears to have an advantage in all three phases of the game, but the betting line suggests the rivalry will be extremely close. The U expects that to be as well. It’s hard to know what Wisconsin team will show up: the team that pushed No. 1 Oregon in a 16-13 home loss or the squad that got blown out at Nebraska 44-25 a week ago. It’s more likely the latter. Gophers, 28-19
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