LOS ANGELES — We’re a week out from Thanksgiving, still figuring out how much turkey to buy (really? that much?), how a bird that size will possibly fit into our oven and whether we might use our next-door neighbor’s oven as a backup.
You know, the same questions that vexed the pilgrims all those years ago.
In terms of the Oscars, it’s a bit early to make any assumptions about how the races will play out over the next few months. But taking big swings can be fun, even if they don’t always connect. (RIP “Joker: Folie à Deux.”) So let’s trot out five early award season assumptions and determine whether or not they’ll pan out.
Assumption: “Wicked” is an undeniable best picture contender.
Answer: True
At the Los Angeles premiere of “Wicked,” producer Marc Platt, who has been shepherding the project since producing the 2003 Broadway show, struck an early campaign tone.
“What you’re about to see tonight, I want you to remember because I think it will resonate and feel so relevant to you … and reflect the lives you’re living and the world you live in,” Platt said from the stage.
I don’t think he was talking about flying monkeys. At least, I hope not. Because there are flying monkeys in “Wicked,” and no one is too happy about it, least of all the monkeys. What Platt was leaning into was the movie’s depiction of a world empowering an authoritarian leader (in this case, dear Wizard) who uses scapegoating to prey on — and stoke — people’s fears. You come for the songs only to find allusions to fascism and genocide.
“Wicked” is undeniably fun, and everyone who’ll be coming to the theater fresh from downing a Glinda’s Pink Potion at Starbucks will not be left wanting. But there’s an overt subtext too that might elevate the movie for those unfamiliar with the show, who had maybe assumed it was a sweet and frothy musical comedy. It will be nominated for best picture. And, if things break right, there’s a path for “Wicked” to win.
Demi Moore stars in “The Substance.” (Christine Tamalet/Mubi/TNS)
Assumption: “The Substance” is too bloody for Demi Moore to earn an Oscar nomination.
Answer: False
Now, granted, body-horror movies don’t have much of a history at the Oscars. Maybe “The Whale” qualifies with its exploitative aesthetic? But Oscar voters have become more adventurous with the picks of late, and “The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat’s blood-soaked fable about fear and self-loathing in Hollywood, has become a genuine indie hit, taking in $75 million worldwide.
Moore earned enthusiastic praise for her turn as Elisabeth Sparkle, a faded star who submits to a back-alley rejuvenation regime to reset her career. Amid the tons of blood and myriad grotesque images, there’s the scene of Moore standing in front of the bathroom mirror, getting ready for a date. The makeup is right — until it isn’t. Moore wipes it off and reapplies it repeatedly, finally rubbing her face raw. That’s her Oscar clip and why, even in a category crowded with contenders, Moore has a shot at a nomination.
Zoe Saldana, left, and Karla Sofia Gascon in “Emilia Perez.” (TIFF/TNS)
Assumption: “Emilia Pérez” is a lock for the international feature Oscar.
Answer: True
It’s usually silly to declare races over this early, but this seems like a safe bet. Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez,” a musical soap opera about a Mexican cartel boss looking to transition to a woman, was the talk of Cannes at its premiere, taking the actress prize shared by the film’s four leading women. And those women — Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz and Zoe Saldaña — figure to be strong contenders at the Oscars too. (Gascón, who plays the title character, would become the first openly transgender actor ever nominated for an Oscar.)
“Emilia Pérez” is Netflix’s top priority this awards season, with the streamer believing it has a shot at best picture in a field with no clear front-runner. A nomination is almost assured, but there’s already a backlash brewing against the film, with critics complaining that it’s a “regressive picture masquerading as progressive” and a “wild ride to nowhere.” It’s come under fire for the way it handles trans issues too.
It’s too early to know how all this will shake out for the best picture race. “Emilia Pérez” can be exasperating at times, overstuffed and self-consciously theatrical. But it’s also thoroughly disarming, boasting an almost ridiculous sense of daring. Also: That cast will carry it a long way — certainly to a trophy for international feature.
Assumption: “Nickel Boys” is too avant-garde to earn a best picture nomination.
Answer: False
“Nickel Boys” premiered on the last day of August at the Telluride Film Festival in a late-night slot immediately following the crowd-pleasing “Conclave.” This was not a good idea. The movie ended well after 11. The Q&A nearly hit the midnight hour. People were tired and really didn’t know what to make of a movie that shifts between the points of view of the two main characters and has a subjective, impressionistic mode of storytelling.
Certainly, there could have been a more straightforward adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s acclaimed novel about the friendship between two Black boys at a brutal Florida reform school in the early 1960s. But that’s not why you hire RaMell Ross to make the movie. Ross’ 2018 Oscar-nominated documentary, “Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” depicted the lives of Black people in a disenfranchised Alabama community with powerful, poetic imagery that demanded your full attention. If you’ve seen that movie and read “Nickel Boys,” this is exactly the movie you’d expect. And it still throws you for a loop.
It will indeed put some people off. But I can also see many academy members — the ones who put “The Zone of Interest” among the best picture nominees last year — placing it atop their ballots.
Assumption: The snubbing of “All We Imagine as Light” in the international feature category dooms its Oscar chances.
Answer: False
Finally, indulge me in this deep cut for one of the year’s best movies, Payal Kapadia’s evocative “All We Imagine as Light,” winner of the Grand Prix at Cannes. The film follows the lives of two roommates who work together as nurses at a hospital in Mumbai, capturing their dreams and disappointments in rich, evocative detail. It was shortlisted by France for the international feature Oscar, but the selection committee chose “Emilia Pérez” instead. And India bypassed it for the crowd-pleasing “Laapataa Ladies.”
But that doesn’t mean its Oscar chances are over. Just last year, “Anatomy of a Fall” earned nominations for best picture and original screenplay after being overlooked by France. If the stellar reviews for the film translate into major prizes from the Los Angeles and New York film critics groups — say, best picture from L.A. and best director from New York — the movie could ride the same wave of ecstatic acclaim that propelled Ryûsuke Hamaguchi’s “Drive My Car” to a best picture nomination at the 2022 Oscars. Sometimes, the best simply can’t be denied.
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