Generally speaking, if you are looking for a basic statistic that groups the good NBA teams and the bad teams together, it’s assist-to-turnover ratio.
You certainly want as many assists as possible — that’s a sign of good offense. And you would like to limit giveaways that decrease your number of looks at the bucket while often feeding your opponent Grade A opportunities.
The ratio balances out the equation for teams that may turn the ball over more than others simply because it moves the ball at such a high rate.
The bad teams are the ones that turn the ball over often without the added benefit of creating easy shots when they do take care of the ball.
That, currently, is the group that includes the Timberwolves.
The Wolves have just 1.52 assists for every turnover, the sixth-worst mark in the NBA entering Saturday’s games. Of the nine NBA teams below 1.6, only the Wolves (8-7) and Clippers (10-7) have winning records, and the Clippers have been dominant defensively. Also in the bottom nine are the two-win Wizards, the three-win 76ers and Jazz and the four-win Pelicans.
Since the 2020-21 season, nine teams have finished the season with an assist-to-turnover number below 1.6. Only one of those teams won more than 27 games — the 2022-23 Magic, who went 34-48.
While the Wolves are still above .500 going into their game against the defending champion Celtics on Sunday in Boston, that’s with what has been the NBA’s fourth-easiest schedule to date, per ESPN.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has cited the turnover issues in recent weeks when discussing his team’s struggles, though he’s noted the giveaway totals have dipped in recent games, Thursday’s loss to Toronto not withstanding. But Minnesota hasn’t committed fewer than 11 turnovers in a single game this season. Meanwhile, the Wolves have tallied fewer than 25 assists in more than half of their games.
It all speaks to a disjointed offense. Finch has at times attributed that to missed shots that were good looks. But the Wolves are tied with Charlotte for the fifth-fewest potential assists this season, at 43.7 per game.
The stats say Minnesota’s shot making is what has saved the Wolves’ offense this season. The Wolves have the NBA’s 10th-best offensive rating, averaging 1.14 points per possession. That’s with having the League’s fourth-best effective field goal percentage (56.3). The three teams above it in that category all average 1.2-plus points per possession. Those same squads also average more than 2.1 assists per turnover.
It all fits the eye test for the Timberwolves. They have an offense that’s run on shot making off isolation basketball. So much of it is without the rhythm and movement Finch aspires for his teams to achieve. And, given that this Wolves unit doesn’t seem to be nearly as dominant defensively as it was one short season ago, until Minnesota can look more like a fluid offense, it will continue to look like a .500 team, or if not worse.
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